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The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
Editor’s Picks
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 26 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking above the cutline, though their fates are not yet clear. 13 current teams
Work to do: The truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 16 current teams
Long shots: There is little — though not zero — chance they make the Big Dance as an at-large.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
9.9 expected bids (8.9 at-large)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kentucky Wildcats
Updated: Feb. 21, 10:55 p.m.
The Wildcats had moved into “lock” territory in the forecast models after defeating Tennessee on Feb. 7 for their eighth win in nine games, then three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — dipped their odds to around 95% in the model consensus. Still strong, but enough to warrant further Bubble Watching. Their résumé featuring five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, is still around sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the newest Bracketology. Despite the losses to a trio of tough foes, they’re not quite in the danger zone. A bigger concern is that they have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with three of four games against Quadrant 1 foes (two against Quadrant 1A).
Next game: at South Carolina (Tuesday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 21, 5:37 p.m.
On the heels of a résumé-boosting win over Kentucky at Rupp Arena earlier this week, Georgia added another when it knocked off SEC bubble rival Texas on Saturday. It’s been a roller-coaster season for the Dawgs: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, they lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% to 66% consensus at-large chance in the span of three weeks — but those chances are back up to 92% after the double-digit victory over the Longhorns. Georgia now sits inside the top 40 of the overall résumé rankings, with seven wins against the BPI top 50, and ranks seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Toward the end of a challenging stretch of games, the Dawgs have the conference’s third-easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, another reason to be bullish on their tournament fate.
Next game: at Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:36 a.m.
The Aggies’ chances had been tumbling after they dropped four straight, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” But a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss, followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma on Saturday, provided a pair of important wins for their tournament hopes. The Aggies are still 10th in the résumé ranking average out of what’s looking like a 10-bid SEC, putting them right on the bubble, but notching a fourth Quadrant 1 win helps raise their at-large profile — and their consensus odds, which now sit at 79%.
Next game: at Arkansas (Wednesday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:36 a.m.
With Auburn’s fortunes sliding after five straight losses, the Tigers made their stand in Saturday night’s dramatic battle at home against Kentucky — and about a dozen plot twists later, won on Elyjah Freeman’s putback with seconds to play. They are still a fascinating case: Four of their losses during the skid came against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, they’re 6-8 in SEC play and the sit at 78% at-large odds. But if we zoom out, the Tigers also have five Quadrant 1 wins now (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call more often than not, though the BPI is projecting them to finish the regular season with fewer than 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
Next game: at Oklahoma (Tuesday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:37 a.m.
Texas’ five-game winning streak came to an end on Saturday at Georgia. Going into the day, the consensus forecast gave the Longhorns better than an 80% at-large chance — up from 45% three weeks ago — and the 91-80 road loss dropped them down to a consensus 70% at-large probability. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than newly promoted Texas A&M, though. They’re also ninth in the conference in résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), and better than that in the predictive rating (consistently around the top 35). The loss to Georgia was just the first leg of a tough remaining slate, with three of their final four regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, which helps explain why their odds aren’t higher.
Next game: vs. Florida (Wednesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 21, 6:26 p.m.
After winning four of its previous five games, Missouri couldn’t close a second-half gap as a big underdog at Arkansas on Saturday. The Tigers still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 50 nationally), a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They do have a trio of Quadrant 1-A wins over Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. And in many ways, they are the anti-Auburn: They have a much better record (18-9 vs. 15-12) against a much easier schedule (66th hardest vs. fourth). While the top models and résumé composites favor Auburn mathematically, Missouri still has a case from a W-L perspective.
Next game: vs. Tennessee (Tuesday)
Oklahoma Sooners
9.8 expected bids; 8.8 at-large
Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:15 a.m.
The Badgers’ recent run of impressive wins over tough foes (Illinois, Michigan State) finally came to an end Tuesday: Against Ohio State, they fell behind early and never really got within striking distance. Still, they’re in good shape. They own three Quadrant 1A wins on the season, with a résumé that now sits around 30th in the national consensus ranking (sixth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule, 11th hardest in Big Ten, is manageable relative to the conference’s other non-locks. Their consensus at-large probability also sits at 97%. The Badgers ought to like their tourney trajectory.
Next game: vs. Iowa (Sunday)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:15 a.m.
After back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue ate into its at-large chances, Iowa got back on track with a big résumé-boosting Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska on Tuesday. What also helps is a résumé in the mid-to-low-30s nationally and being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — both of which bode well for the Hawkeyes’ tournament hopes. Their remaining schedule is no cupcake, jumping from 60th so far to 12th from here on nationally (fourth hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. That mentioned, Iowa’s consensus at-large chance (96%) in the models remains very high.
Next game: at Wisconsin (Sunday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:44 a.m.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80% until that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. Desperate for a win hosting No. 10 Illinois on Saturday, the Bruins won in overtime on Donovan Dent’s Tyus Edney-style coast-to-coast layup. It was their third Quadrant 1 win of the season (second Quad 1A), their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. Even if the Big Ten gets 10 bids, it’s still not totally clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, but beating the Illini helped raise their consensus at-large odds back up to 85%, which lands them here for now.
Next game: vs. USC (Tuesday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:45 a.m.
Coming off a run of five wins in six games — including three over Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents — Indiana’s hot streak cooled with a pair of losses at Illinois and Purdue by a combined 49 points. That shaved about 10% off the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability, which still sits at 73% but is no longer making them look anywhere near as solid as before. Their portfolio holds up next to other bubble teams — they rank 41st in the national résumé average, eighth among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a 10-bid conference — and they remain among the top-35 in the predictive metrics. But with fewer than 20 projected wins now, they must at least handle business against Northwestern/Minnesota — and probably beat one of Michigan State or Ohio State, too — in order to feel more comfortable.
Next game: vs. Northwestern (Tuesday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 18, 7:17 a.m.
After missing a prime opportunity to raise their at-large chances Saturday against Virginia in Nashville, the Buckeyes course-corrected Tuesday with a big résumé-boosting home win over Wisconsin that raised their at-large odds from 59% to 70% in a single night. They’re better than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. They’re also still right on the bubble, ranking in the mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and right on the cutline of a projected 10-bid league. That mentioned, they’re 0-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. Their main issue is a lack of consistent momentum: After beating the Badgers, the Buckeyes have alternated wins and losses in 19 of their past 21 games.
Next game: at Michigan State (Sunday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:50 a.m.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon — the latter of which came despite leading by six points with 1:10 to play — coupled with additional results across the Big Ten have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 25%. They still have a case to secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the 10th-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. But the models are less bullish, because USC is outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, with a trio of Quadrant 1 games remaining. For a team that needs every win, letting the Oregon game slip away will sting.
Next game: at UCLA (Tuesday)
Washington Huskies
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:58 a.m.
Just when the Mustangs took a hit in our projections by faltering late as road favorites at Syracuse last week, they rebounded with back-to-back wins, including Saturday’s 24-point blowout over Boston College. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth best in what could be an eight-bid ACC. But SMU has elevated its consensus at-large chances to 94%, and all three teams are well clear of Virginia Tech and Cal — their closest bubble rivals within the conference.
Next game: at California (Wednesday)
Clemson Tigers
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:53 a.m.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result of now trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
Next game: at Virginia (Tuesday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 22, 7:58 a.m
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play with three résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech, but they missed the chance to add another on Saturday when they blew an early double-digit lead at Virginia to lose on a three-shot foul at the end. Their at-large chances had pulled roughly even with SMU, and they went into the weekend boasting the superior résumé quality (seventh in the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), though the Hurricanes’ consensus model at-large chances still sit in the mid-80% range. The BPI has them facing a slightly harder remaining schedule than Clemson, but that means two more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (they already have four). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight bids, the Canes remain in good shape to snag one.
Next game: at Florida State (Tuesday)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 21, 2:26 p.m.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
Next game: at North Carolina (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 21, 8:13 p.m.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson and Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but victories over Boston College and Stanford got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, though. And with a consensus at-large probability floating barely above 20%, the Bears certainly have work to do.
Next game: vs. SMU (Wednesday)
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Syracuse Orange
7.3 expected bids (6.3 at-large)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:05 a.m.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being locks — the six teams listed above each have 100% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really starts with who could be the seventh bid. The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they regained much of it (and are back up to 82% at-large odds) with a wins over bubble rival TCU and then Utah on Saturday. The victories pushed their full-season projection back up to near 21 wins, and helped them close in on the top 30 in the résumé average — a good place to be, since no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50. With the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference, the Knights are back in the driver’s seat, at least for now.
Next game: at BYU (Tuesday)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 21, 7:08 p.m.
The Horned Frogs had played themselves into a serious battle for one of the Big 12’s final at-large nods with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. And while that progress hit a snag with Tuesday’s loss at UCF, they took a big step back in the right direction with Saturday’s seesaw win over fellow bubble hopeful West Virginia. TCU’s case is interesting: Although it sits with a consensus at-large chance in the 30% range, the Frogs have four Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1-A wins over Florida and Iowa State), and one last chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team, but if seven ends up being the conference’s magic number, TCU is in trouble.
Next game: vs. Arizona State (Tuesday)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:08 a.m.
The Bearcats earn a spot in this category by virtue of beating Kansas on Saturday — by 16 points at Allen Fieldhouse! — for their fourth consecutive win. That mentioned, their tourney hopes remain fairly remote, requiring a work and possibly luck: Cincy ranks just 68th in the national résumé average (for reference, the bubble is generally around No. 45), they’re projected to finish the season with 14 losses per the BPI, and their case is really only relying on two signature wins (vs. Iowa State at home, and at Kansas on the road). The consensus model odds set Cincinnati’s at-large chances at just 12%.
Next game: at Texas Tech (Tuesday)
West Virginia Mountaineers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Baylor Bears
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
None
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 21, 8:27 p.m.
Wednesday’s 12-point home loss to DePaul put a dent in the Pirates’ chances, only mitigated slightly by Saturday’s victory over Georgetown. Their at-large chances sit at 13% in the forecast composite, while they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, so Seton Hall’s last chances to impress the committee would be to upset UConn (Feb. 28 on the road) or St. John’s (March 6 at home).
Next game: at UConn (Saturday)
Creighton Bluejays
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 21, 9:29 a.m.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After last Tuesday’s loss at Rhode Island injected some mild doubt into their at-large bona fides, Saint Louis overcame what felt like a double-digit deficit for most of the game to roar back and beat bubble rival VCU by 13 in Friday night’s feisty contest. The Billikens ranks 26th nationally in the résumé rankings and 24th in the predictive ratings, so it’s still hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. With their statement win over VCU out of the way, it should be clear sailing ahead.
Next game: at Dayton (Tuesday)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:15 a.m.
Despite trailing as halftime approached Saturday night, the Gaels handled Washington State to push their winning streak to six. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 31st in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 88% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 in Moraga. But first, the rematch with Santa Clara awaits.
Next game: vs. Santa Clara (Wednesday)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 21, 9:31 a.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? After Arizona lost earlier this month, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten Division I team and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season. It is true that Miami is a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 320th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami crushed Bowling Green on Friday to move within four wins of an undefeated regular season — which ESPN Analytics now gives a 44% chance to happen.
Next game: at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:14 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids — which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos’ Feb. 14 loss to Gonzaga had dropped their chances some, but they bounced back Saturday to win against San Francisco, boosting their consensus at-large chances to 76%. They own the 40th-best résumé ranking and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s but are projected by the BPI to finish with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s fate may rest on the Feb. 25 rematch in Moraga, and how much the selection committee values head-to-head wins.
Next game: at Saint Mary’s (Wednesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 21, 10:04 p.m.
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico regained its edge as the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant (behind Utah State) by beating Air Force and Fresno State as San Diego State fell to both Grand Canyon and Colorado State. With the Aztecs’ losses, the Lobos’ consensus at-large chances are back around 60% — not exactly ideal but better than they were after losing to Boise State earlier this month. The primary blemish remains their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28, but they have the momentum right now.
Next game: at Nevada (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 21, 9:32 a.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the mid-20% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. In part, that’s because the Rams are 0-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a tough collapse at Saint Louis on Friday that hurt their at-large case. On the positive side, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), they’ve still won 10 of 11, and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins. But it’s still totally up in the air if the A-10 will get a second NCAA entry (which has happened in three of the five years since the pandemic), and the Billikens would clearly be first in line for whatever bid(s) the conference does get.
Next game: vs. Fordham (Saturday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:18 a.m.
The Aztecs seemed to be building momentum with three straight wins over Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada, but consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State have taken a major toll on their consensus at-large chances: from 65% to just 27% now. After spending most of the season as one of the bubbliest of bubble teams, they’ve now slipped outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking. The Mountain West could feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best team (Boise State, at south of 5%), San Diego State could get in regardless. But if the Mountain West gets only two bids, New Mexico has the edge right now.
Next game: vs. Utah State (Wednesday)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Updated: Feb. 22, 8:18 a.m.
Belmont’s case for at-large consideration continues to grow after the Bruins beat Indiana State on Saturday for their 12th win in 13 games. They lead the nation in effective FG% and they are a top-50 team in our résumé composite, while the BPI currently projects them to clear 26 wins. Though they have no Quadrant 1 wins, they’ll get one more chance to improve on their 5-1 record against Quad 2 teams – against Illinois State on March 1 – which might be enough to garner attention from the committee even if they don’t win the Missouri Valley.
Next game: vs. Evansville (Wednesday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
Dayton Flyers (A-10)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
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