I wrote Busts 1.0 back on January 16, and a lot has happened since then! Spring training games have started, I’ve participated in drafts, and we’ve done our position preview podcasts on Fantasy Baseball Today. Those last two are especially important. We deep dive into so many players on the position preview pods. It allows me to review all the stats and see if I missed anything the first go around. I also get to hear the opinions of Scott White and Chris Towers. Conversations will either reinforce opinions or force me to expand what I thought about a certain player.
Doing drafts has also helped me prep. Most have been slow draft-and-holds, but a few have been fast-paced mock drafts. Nothing tests your rankings and opinions like a draft room. You may think you want a player, but when the time comes, you shy away. With all that mentioned, here are five more names I’ve found myself avoiding in the drafts I’ve done, either due to new information, enhanced risk factors, gut feeling, or all of the above.
- Sleepers 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 2.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
Nick Kurtz
ATH • 1B • #16
BA0.290
R90
HR36
RBI86
SB2
ADP18.4
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I can already feel the eyes rolling. Nobody wants to doubt a young phenom. What Kurtz did last year was historic. In his Age-22 season, he hit .290 with 36 homers and a 1.002 OPS in just 117 games. His full-season pace was 49 homers, 124 runs, and 119 RBI. His average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and bat speed all ranked in the 92nd percentile or better last season. I cannot and will not doubt his power, which is 100 percent legit. I will, however, doubt his contact ability and approach against left-handed pitching.
Kurtz has a great eye at the plate, but holes in his swing. He struck out 31 percent of the time last season, and the underlying metrics were quite bad. His 35.5 percent whiff rate ranked in the first percentile, while his zone contact was just 72.5 percent. For reference, the league average is 82.5 percent. Kurtz showed signs of improvement in August, lowering his strikeout rate to just 26 percent, but then it shot back up to 35 percent in September. On top of that, he struggled mightily against lefties, hitting just .197 with a .685 OPS and a 35 percent strikeout rate. It’s entirely possible that at 23 years old, he improves and builds off a truly impressive rookie season, but I’m not sure his downside is being factored in enough as a second-round pick in drafts. I would take more proven options like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Schwarber, and Jazz Chisholm over Kurtz in that range.
Jarren Duran
BOS • CF • #16
BA0.256
R86
HR16
RBI84
SB24
ADP64.8
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Before I get into it, I need to apologize to Red Sox fans, as three of your team’s players are on this list. I don’t hate the Red Sox players for Fantasy, I swear! In fact, I’m quite eager to draft Roman Anthony, Ranger Suarez, Willson Contreras, and Caleb Durbin. I am not as eager to draft Jarren Duran. Last year, everything came down from Duran’s career 2024 season. It seems as though he was selling out a little more for power, a skillset I don’t think he’s suited for. But the main reason I worry about Duran as a top-70 pick is his playing time.
Now that’s just one beat writer’s opinion, but there is merit behind it. In Duran’s career against lefties, he’s hitting just .232 with a .620 OPS, 70 wRC+, and a 27 percent strikeout rate. According to the above tweet, that would mean Wilyer Abreu is an everyday player over Duran. While that might sound outlandish to some, Abreu is the much better defender, having won back-to-back Gold Glove awards. Now I don’t see Duran bottoming out or anything; I just think he’s overvalued in Fantasy if he’s not an everyday player, especially in H2H points leagues. His skillset is still useful, with decent power and lots of speed. I would take all of Jackson Merrill, Seiya Suzuki, and George Springer over Duran in that range of drafts.
Aroldis Chapman
BOS • RP • #44
ERA1.17
K/912.5
WHIP.7
S32
BS2
ADP80.2
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As a general rule in any Fantasy sport, fade the 37-year-old coming off one the best seasons of his career. According to the Fangraphs Player Rater, Chapman was the best reliever in 12-team Roto leagues last season. 1.17 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 32 saves is just bonkers! The biggest improvement came in Chapman’s control. His 2.2 BB/9 and 6.6 percent walk rate were both the best of his career. He went right after hitters, evidenced by his 70.6 percent first-pitch strike percentage. Prior to last year, his previous high in that particular stat was just 62.5 percent. Chapman had been below 60 percent even of the four years prior!
I know the Red Sox and Chapman both made adjustments to help him throw strikes last season. I just seriously question if he can replicate that again in 2026. From 2021-2024, Chapman allowed nearly 6 BB/9 with a 15.4 percent walk rate! He ranked bottom three among all qualified relievers during that span. Yes, there is a chance last year was real. He picks up right where he left off and has another top-five closer season for Fantasy. I think the more likely scenario is that his control regresses towards the rest of his career, especially his very recent years before 2025. I’m trying to be more nitpicky about which relievers I’m drafting in Fantasy Baseball this season, and Chapman will not be one of them at his cost.
Nick Pivetta
SD • RP • #27
ERA2.87
WHIP.99
IP181.2
BB50
K190
ADP87.2
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Nick Pivetta finally did the thing. He put it all together and finished as a top-15 starting pitcher, regardless of format. He was consistent, threw strikes, and really enjoyed the move over to Petco Park. Pivetta posted a 2.36 ERA at home and saw his overall HR/9 drop from 1.7 with the Red Sox in 2024 to just 1.1 last season. Well, he still pitches for the Padres, so what’s there to worry about? The underlying skills tell us that Pivetta might have been fortunate last season.
Let’s start with his declining whiffs. Over the past three years, Pivetta’s swinging strike rate has dropped from 13.1 percent to 11.3 down to 10.5 last season. League average was 10.6 percent. Next up is the BABIP. Yes, Pivetta is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which typically leads to a lower BABIP. Last year, Pivetta had a .235 mark when it was .279 the year prior and .292 for his career. The smart move is to bet on regression in that department. Lastly, the underlying ERA estimators tell us Pivetta might have deserved one full run added to his ERA. While he posted a 2.87 ERA last season, his xFIP was 3.85, and his xERA was 3.97. The xFIP and xERA were both higher last season than in 2024, when Pivetta’s ERA is 4.14. Explain that! Pivetta’s another one where I don’t think he’ll bottom out, but I see regression coming, and that makes him overvalued as a top-100 pick.
Sonny Gray
BOS • SP • #54
ERA4.28
WHIP1.23
IP180.2
BB38
K201
ADP103.4
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I just do not get this one at all. Yes, Sonny Gray still does some nice things. He’s thrown at least 166 innings with at least 183 strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. He’s also a metrics darling, which I usually love. Gray was seventh among qualified starters with a 21.6 percent K-BB rate. Each of his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA were below 3.40. With all of that mentioned, he’s 36 years old and clearly declining. I think some of the things Gray is struggling with aren’t captured in the underlying metrics.
For example, his fastball velocity has dropped from 92.9 MPH back in 2023 down to 91.7 MPH last season, and that pitch got demolished! It allowed a .376 batting average against with a .594 slugging percentage. I almost think he throws too many strikes at this point in his career, too. Yes, it’s nice to avoid walks, but not if you’re getting hit hard. When things went wrong for Gray last season, they went really wrong. He had six different starts where he allowed multiple home runs. In five of those, he allowed at least six earned runs. As a result, the ERA has been on the high end two years in a row. On top of all of that, he’s back in the AL East, where he’ll have to face the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles multiple times per year. No, it’s not as often as the past, due to the balanced schedule changes, but still more often than you’d like. Gray is being drafted as a top-30 starting pitcher by ADP, but I have him closer to SP50 in my own personal rankings.
