Getting a horse to qualify for the Kentucky Derby is almost as difficult as winning it. And already this year, the road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby has seen a major withdrawal: Reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey has been ruled out of all three legs of the Triple Crown because of bone bruising.
Ted Noffey was the lukewarm future wager favorite for the Run for the Roses, and his absence has made an already wide-open race even more up-in-the-air. Remsen Stakes winner Paladin, who is set to run on Saturday in the 2026 Risen Star Stakes in New Orleans, is the 8-1 morning-line favorite among the 39 individual betting interests in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. The Todd Pletcher-trained Nearly, who is coming off an impressive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes, is the 10-1 second choice.
However, there are other horses that are worth considering at bigger prices in Pool 4 of the future wager, which opens at noon ET on Friday and closes at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. Here are my top four overlays, listed in order of preference.
31 Secured Freedom (90-1)
After running an even fourth in his debut, this son of Practical Joke won going away in his second start, earning a solid 88 Beyer Speed Figure. Last week in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes he ran third, but the race was better than it looks on paper. He was wide on both turns and then galloped out past both of the top two finishers. He will need to get faster, but he certainly has shown the talent to do so. My biggest concern with Secured Freedom is the distance. Sons and daughters of Practical Joke do not excel beyond a mile, much less 1¼ miles. But at 90-1 or thereabouts, he’s worth a sprinkle.
38 The Puma (90-1)
Though he is winless in two career starts, The Puma is arguably the most accomplished 3-year-old maiden in the country. In his career debut, he ran well but finished second to the well-regarded Chief Wallabee. Then, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last week, he lacked room for much of the race and encountered major traffic trouble down the lane when he tried to go through a hole that wasn’t there and finished third behind the talented Renegade. I’m not sure The Puma would’ve beaten Renegade with a fair trip, but he would’ve made the race much more interesting. If you like Renegade at 20-1, you have to love The Puma at 90-1. Trainer Gustavo Delgado already has won a Kentucky Derby, with Mage in 2023.
10 Commandment (25-1)
Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by top jock Irad Ortiz Jr., Commandment has improved with every race and has won his last two starts, capped off by a 6¾-length romp in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, which earned a good 91 Beyer Speed Figure. But the most impressive aspect of that race came after the wire, when he galloped out miles past the field. That suggests to me that this son of Into Mischief should have no problem stretching out in distance and going two turns, which he will do in his next start, the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 28. Now’s the time to pull the trigger on this runner.
5 Canaletto (40-1)
A half-brother to last year’s Arkansas Derby winner, Sandman, Canaletto did not make his first career start until Jan. 25. But it was an impressive debut. He won the one-mile race by eight widening lengths and earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure. Unlike his plodding half-brother, who was sired by Tapit, Canaletto was sired by Into Mischief and has more tactical speed. Because of his late debut, Canaletto might need to be rushed to make the Kentucky Derby, which isn’t ideal, but this $1 million purchase is a horse with a future. I’m not sure you’re going to get 40-1 though.
Others to consider: 1 Blackout Time (40-1), 13 Englishman (40-1), koming (koming-1) and koming (koming-1).
| 1 |
Blackout Time |
40-1 |
| 2 |
Boyd |
40-1 |
| 3 |
Brant |
20-1 |
| 4 |
Bravaro |
80-1 |
| 5 |
Canaletto |
40-1 |
| 6 |
Carson Street |
75-1 |
| 7 |
Chief Wallabee |
20-1 |
| 8 |
Chip Honcho |
90-1 |
| 9 |
Class President |
90-1 |
| 10 |
Commandment |
25-1 |
| 11 |
Courting |
90-1 |
| 12 |
Emerging Market |
30-1 |
| 13 |
Englishman |
40-1 |
| 14 |
Ewing |
50-1 |
| 15 |
Further Ado |
25-1 |
| 16 |
Golden Tempo |
20-1 |
| 17 |
Intrepido |
30-1 |
| 18 |
Iron Honor |
60-1 |
| 19 |
Jackson Hole |
50-1 |
| 20 |
Litmus Test |
40-1 |
| 21 |
Mesquite |
75-1 |
| 22 |
My World |
80-1 |
| 23 |
Napoleon Solo |
25-1 |
| 24 |
Nearly |
10-1 |
| 25 |
Paladin |
8-1 |
| 26 |
Plutarch |
20-1 |
| 27 |
Potente |
50-1 |
| 28 |
Powershift |
80-1 |
| 29 |
Pyromancer |
80-1 |
| 30 |
Renegade |
20-1 |
| 31 |
Secured Freedom |
90-1 |
| 32 |
Silent Tactic |
30-1 |
| 33 |
Six Speed |
50-1 |
| 34 |
So Happy |
40-1 |
| 35 |
Soldier N Diplomat |
75-1 |
| 36 |
Solitude Dude |
50-1 |
| 37 |
Talk to Me Jimmy |
80-1 |
| 38 |
The Puma |
90-1 |
| 39 |
Thunderously |
25-1 |
| 40 |
All other 3-year-olds |
4-1 |
