usatsi-27719860-2.jpg
Imagn Images

The 2025 NFL MVP race resembled that of many memorable Kentucky Derby finishes in which a cluster of viable competitors rounded the final turn, only to see two thoroughbreds break away toward a photo finish.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford crossed the finish line by a length – in this case, exactly one first-place vote – ahead of Patriots second-year sensation Drake Maye after the two traded the lead in the sportsbook MVP odds numerous times down the stretch.

Heading into Week 18, Maye was the odds-on favorite with a price of around -400 at most betting outlets, suggesting his receipt of the accolade was all but a foregone conclusion. But those who backed Stafford were rewarded after the veteran signal-caller threw for 281 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-20 victory over the Arizona Cardinals to finish the regular season.

Although the regular-season finale was far from his most prolific stat line, it is widely believed Stafford received credit among voters for notching 457 yards and three scores in a wild 38-37 Week 16 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who would go on to allow just one offensive touchdown combined across their final two games.  

The intrigue surrounding the air-tight finish makes it easy to forget that neither finalist was even on the radar of football analysts and oddsmakers ahead of the 2025 NFL season. Maye, who was heading into his second season on a Patriots club that went 4-13 in his rookie campaign, could be found with odds of +6000 or better at most sportsbooks. Stafford, on the other hand, literally wasn’t even on the betting menu. He was an afterthought amid widespread speculation that lingering injuries could keep him out part or all of the 2025 NFL season. He first emerged in the NFL MVP odds about four weeks into the season and could still be backed at odds of +2200 or better midway through the schedule.

So the obvious question is, are any such viable longshots in the 2026 NFL MVP odds worth a sprinkle right now? Similar to the Stafford plight that basically nobody saw coming, such a position would require an imaginative narrative that at least has some potential merit.

For instance, what if pending free agent Kirk Cousins (+20000) were to return to the Vikings, win the starting job over erratic prospect J.J. McCarthy, and put up massive numbers with Justin Jefferson and friends while leading the Vikings back to the NFC North title? Keep in mind Cousins is ultra popular with the NFL media and such a storyline would captivate the voters and fans alike. It would take this type of a redemption or comeback journey to give a super longshot a legitimate chance.

One thing you can do for sure is eliminate all non-quarterbacks. Although 16 running backs have won the award in NFL history, Adrian Peterson was the last to do so in 2012 and it appears award voters have decided that Offensive Player of the Year is the ceiling accolade that non-quarterbacks can attain. This is illustrated by the fact that 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley of the Eagles have produced record-breaking numbers in each of the past two years and neither received a single MVP vote.

The following are the current DraftKings odds for 2026 NFL MVP: 

Place NFL futures bets at DraftKings and get bonus bets:

2026 NFL MVP odds (DraftKings)

  • Josh Allen +550
  • Lamar Jackson +650 
  • Patrick Mahomes +1000 
  • Justin Herbert +1000
  • Drake Maye +1000
  • Joe Burrow +1000
  • Dak Prescott +1200
  • Matthew Stafford +1400
  • Caleb Williams +1500
  • Jordan Love +1500 
  • Brock Purdy +1800
  • Jayden Daniels +2000
  • Jalen Hurts +2200
  • Sam Darnold +2800
  • Baker Mayfield +2800
  • Jared Goff +3500 
  • Bo Nix +3500
  • Jaxson Dart +4500 
  • C.J. Stroud +4500
  • Daniel Jones +5500
  • Cam Ward +5500

Initial value leans:

So who are we looking at right now for perhaps decent equity among both the favorites and longshots? Here are some intial leans: 

Burrow/Mahomes (+1000): We are grouping these AFC signal-callers together because of their overlapping criteria and the principle that either at +1000 could easily provide some equity. Mahomes is a two-time MVP winner who will be coming off a torn ACL that ended his 2025 season. If he is ready in Week 1 and leads the Chiefs back into the AFC title picture while remaining healthy, there’s little doubt he will be in MVP consideration. Burrow’s late-season return from a toe injury reminded football observers what the Bengals are capable of with him at the helm. Burrow is extremely popular with the NFL media and, should the Bengals return to playoff contention, he will have the accompanying massive numbers to support an MVP bid.  

Lawrence (+2000): The first overall pick of the 2021 draft played the best football of his career in 2025, throwing for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions as the Jaguars reached the postseason in their first year under head coach Liam Cohen. During an eight-game winning streak to close out the regular season, Lawrence was arguably playing as well or better than any quarterback in the league and had just two interceptions in that span. Should the Clemson product maintain this level of production while keeping turnovers limited, he could win over voters who might have some fatigue of familiar candidates. He might also receive some sentiment on the comeback narrative considering many analysts, prior to last season, were prepared to label him a complete bust.

Dart (+4500): Hat tip to SportsLine lead NFL analyst R.J. White for this suggestion. He believes the second-year dual-threat quarterback will be a popular choice among MVP longshot bettors given his chance to excel under new coach John Harbaugh and the potential for big numbers as the Giants attempt to make a major step forward in a vulnerable NFC East. 

Sign up with DraftKings and start earning bonus bets today: