NBA conference semifinals: Previewing the second roundESPNMultiple AuthorsMay 4, 2026, 07:00 AM ET
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The NBA postseason started with 20 teams, four of which were eliminated during the play-in tournament. Eight more saw their seasons end in the first round, leaving us with eight teams in the second round, each of them eight wins away from the NBA Finals.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons all had to win Game 7s over the weekend to advance, and the Oklahoma City Thunder swept their opening series.
Can the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves stop the juggernaut Thunder and San Antonio Spurs in the West? Are the battle-tested Pistons still the No. 1 team in the East? And how do the injuries to Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards affect the West?
ESPN’s Tim Bontemps talked to two Western Conference scouts, breaking down the keys to each series, and our NBA insiders answered the questions that could determine who moves on to the conference finals — and who doesn’t.
Jump to a series:
Thunder-Lakers | Spurs-Timberwolves | Pistons-Cavaliers | Knicks-Sixers
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Los Angeles Lakers
How they got here: Thunder swept Phoenix Suns 4-0; Lakers defeated Houston Rockets 4-2.
Season series: The Thunder won all four meetings by an average score of 125.5-96.25. Only one of the four games was decided by single digits.
Do the regular-season results foreshadow a lopsided series?
The Thunder swept the regular-season series against the Lakers in historically dominant fashion. The average point differential in the four meetings was 29.3 points. According to ESPN Research, that’s the largest average margin of victory against the Lakers by any team in a single season and the highest average point differential in a regular-season series between teams that met in the playoffs.
The closest of the four games was Oklahoma City’s 119-110 road win on Feb. 9, when superstars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) and Luka Doncic (hamstring) both sat out. The most lopsided was the Thunder’s 139-96 rout at home on April 2, when Austin Reaves and Doncic exited with injuries in the third quarter but well after the outcome was decided.
It remains to be determined if Doncic, who is still recovering from the hamstring strain he suffered that night, will be available at any point in this series. He commands respect from the Thunder as the last superstar to prevail over them in a playoff series, but Oklahoma City’s top-ranked defense gave Doncic fits this season. He had as many turnovers (10) as buckets while shooting 33.3% from the field against the Thunder, who outscored the Lakers by 66 points in 59 minutes with Doncic on the court.
The Lakers, on the other hand, had no answers for the reigning and likely repeat MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 83 points on 64.2% true shooting in 87 minutes in the three games he played against them. — Tim MacMahon
Will Luka Doncic return in time to be a factor this series?
The first question is will Doncic, who has been out since April 2 because of a Grade 2 hamstring strain, return at all?
Despite trekking to Spain to receive multiple injections for the injury, as multiple sources told ESPN, his ramp up toward game action has not yet progressed substantially in the month he has been out. Doncic did not practice with the Lakers on Sunday in their first prep for OKC, according to coach JJ Redick, and he will be evaluated on a “week-to-week basis” moving forward, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania.
L.A. was able to build a 3-1 lead on Houston in the first round without Reaves or Doncic — but the Rockets aren’t the defending champs. Reaves was back for Games 4 and 5, and though he was clearly rusty, he still put up averages of 18.5 points and 4.0 rebounds (and had one of the biggest buckets in the closeout win with a spinning layup that steadied the Lakers in the first half after a Houston run).
There’s still a week before L.A. will host Game 4 at Crypto.com Arena on May 11, which will be more than five weeks since Doncic’s injury. Will that be enough time for Doncic to ramp back up to be in the lineup?
And, a question that is just as pertinent, will the Lakers be able to win at least one game without him so there is still a series left to fight for if he is cleared to return? — Dave McMenamin
Scout’s take on the serious mismatches for the Lakers: “I could see the Lakers only winning a game. [The Thunder] are bigger, and their bigs are so much better — Chet [Holmgren] and [Isaiah] Hartenstein against [Deandre] Ayton and [Jaxson] Hayes, that’s such a mismatch.
“They have all of those perimeter defenders to give the Lakers trouble, and I already thought LeBron was slowing down as the Rockets series went along. And who is going to guard Shai? They have no one to do that.”
Experts’ picks: Thunder 10, Lakers 0
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
How they got here: Spurs defeated Portland Trail Blazers 4-1; Timberwolves defeated Denver Nuggets 4-2.
Season series: The Timberwolves won the season series 2-1. The Wolves won the first matchup by 13 points, though the Spurs were without Victor Wembanyama. The final two matchups were decided by one and three points, respectively.
Will the Spurs overlook a weakened Minnesota squad?
That’s highly unlikely given what has transpired between these teams during the regular season. Minnesota enters this series without superstar Anthony Edwards and sharpshooting guard Donte DiVincenzo, two players who have given San Antonio fits all season. DiVicenzo is out for the rest of the postseason and Edwards is expected to sit out the first two games of the series. The Spurs need to take advantage.
Edwards averaged 36.7 points in the three regular-season meetings between the teams, with Minnesota winning two. In fact, the Timberwolves have won five of their past six games against the Spurs. So, despite injuries, the Timberwolves remain a formidable foe for the young, inexperienced Spurs.
Minnesota’s size and physicality in the frontcourt posed problems for San Antonio during the regular season, especially at power forward, where Julius Randle presents somewhat of a mismatch against Julian Champagnie. The 6-foot-9 Jaden McDaniels also presents a challenge for Spurs guards De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, along with backup center Naz Reid, who probably will be matched up mostly against Luke Kornet.
Given Rudy Gobert’s defensive performance against Nikola Jokic in the opening round, all eyes will be on the veteran against Wembanyama. But there’s a chance Minnesota could try to match Gobert against Castle and see if the second-year guard can hurt the Timberwolves as a shooter. — Michael C. Wright
Can the Timberwolves steal one before Edwards’ return?
The optimism around Edwards’ status is growing. He went through two light workouts over the weekend and, as ESPN’s Shams Charania stated, could find his way back in the lineup by Game 3 or 4 in Minneapolis. The Timberwolves will try to steal one from the heavily favored Spurs without him, which would require a collective effort similar to the Game 6 clincher over the Nuggets.
That night, McDaniels provided 32 points to go along with elite defense on Jamal Murray, who went 4-of-17 shooting. Against the Spurs, McDaniels will be defending Fox and Castle, tasked with keeping them inefficient while also shouldering an increased scoring burden next to Randle.
In the November win over the Spurs, Randle had 22 points and 12 assists, carving up a San Antonio defense that, notably, didn’t have Wembanyama. Randle’s bulldozer style will be tested with the league’s best rim protector lurking and Gobert’s own defensive prowess will be challenged on the other end, as he shifts from a terrific series against Jokic to the Wembanyama assignment.
The Timberwolves don’t have to deliver Minnesota four wins without Edwards, who is determined to make his mark on this series. But they’ll make his job a whole lot easier if they can notch at least one before his return. — Anthony Slater
Scout’s take on battle-tested Minnesota: “I’m not going to pick against Minnesota pushing it far, because of everything they showed against Denver. I really wonder if San Antonio’s inexperience will show up when they go up against a real team that has playoff experience, which Minnesota has.
“I have concerns about San Antonio’s shooting. … I don’t think the rest of the team besides Wemby is unbeatable. … I still think San Antonio wins the series, but if you were going to have the more experienced, playoff-tested team, that could give them a problem.”
Experts’ picks: Spurs 10, Timberwolves 0
Eastern Conference
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (4) Cleveland Cavaliers
How they got here: Pistons defeated Orlando Magic 4-3; Cavaliers defeated Toronto Raptors 4-3.
Season series: The Pistons and Cavaliers split the regular-season series 2-2.
Have the Pistons returned to form?
The East’s best team was on the ropes. Orlando was 23 minutes away from advancing to the second round, leading the top-seeded Pistons by 24 points in Friday’s Game 6.
It took an all-time defensive stand, one that smothered Orlando into missing a playoff-record 23 consecutive shots, to keep Detroit’s season alive. In the process, the Pistons rediscovered the mojo that made them a 60-win team.
Overcoming that and a 3-1 deficit required the Pistons to look deep within. It needed superstar play from Cade Cunningham, who was brilliant with 45 points, 32 points and 32 points, respectively, in each of the last three Pistons wins. Detroit’s vaunted defense was back, smothering the Magic inside the paint. And Cunningham had offensive help from Tobias Harris, who had 30 points in Game 7. Jalen Duren came to life with a 15-point, 15-rebound performance that was much more representative of the All-Star big man he was this season.
“Credit to [the Magic], they pushed us,” Cunningham mentioned. “They really made us take a look in the mirror. I think we got a lot better from this series. I got a lot better. I learned a lot about myself, learned a lot about the team. So I think this series really is going to set us up for our next series and we’ll be a lot better for it.” — Ohm Youngmisuk
How will the Cavs handle another physical defense?
From the beginning of this year’s playoff run, the Cavs have repeatedly used one word as their key to victory: force. They aimed to be the team that set the tone, to initiate the terms of condition, a reversal from their previous playoff disappointment.
Cleveland survived its first test against the Toronto Raptors, a top-five defense during the regular season that made everything difficult for its star backcourt, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. The Pistons are poised to provide an even tougher test, with skilled defenders on the perimeter to bother Mitchell and Harden, and size on the interior to disrupt the Cavs bigs, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who have not always responded well in a physical playoff series but rose to the occasion against Toronto.
The Cavs were able to outlast the Raptors, who were missing two starters by the end of the series, by scoring in bursts Toronto could not keep up with. Detroit showed similar offensive struggles in the first round, which could play into Cleveland’s strengths if it can find a way to turn this series into a shootout.
“We’re going to have to be mentally and physically tough to beat this team,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson mentioned. “No. 1 seed. They’ve had a great year. They’re the favorites. We go in there as underdogs, which is a challenge, but I think it’s going to be a similar series [as Toronto] being able to handle their pressure, their rebounding, their force, their physicality. So hopefully this series prepared us for that.” — Jamal Collier
Scout’s take on the series’ clash of styles: “The Pistons are the tougher team, the more focused team, the more reliable team. … The question for Cleveland is, will they be willing to match the intensity? Will they handle the physicality? That feels like a major mismatch in Detroit’s favor.
“Two totally different teams, one with talent and scoring that does well when things are going its way, versus a team that has to grind it out, be physical and have to play that way to win. Like the old boxing mantra: Styles make fights.”
Experts’ picks: Pistons 6, Cavaliers 2
(3) New York Knicks vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
How they got here: Knicks defeated Atlanta Hawks 4-2; 76ers defeated Boston Celtics 4-3.
Season series: The Knicks and Sixers split the season series 2-2. Joel Embiid played in only two of the four meetings.
Have the Knicks turned the corner and shown us exactly who they are?
Winning games by 15, 29 and 51 shows the Knicks have another gear, a higher plane than most teams remaining apart from Oklahoma City. Finding that gear hasn’t been easy this season, but they’ve won when they’ve had to. Doing it when every other series in the conference was a seven-game rockfight could show they are taking this more seriously than we gave them credit for through the season.
The Knicks were designed to beat the Celtics, but Philadelphia has strengths that attack the Knicks’ soft spots — athleticism and quickness in the backcourt, certainly different from the Hawks. But the Knicks’ offense unleashed another layer in the first round, and it’s hard to see Philly keeping up. — Vincent Goodwill
Can the 76ers keep this up?
Philadelphia has been the NBA’s version of Charlie Brown trying to kick the football for the past decade. Between injuries and catastrophic disappointments in the playoffs, the 76ers have repeatedly found themselves on the wrong end of results since Embiid came into the NBA — and especially when playing the Celtics. But now, after escaping Game 7 Saturday night, Philadelphia heads into another Eastern Seaboard showdown with all sorts of confidence and energy behind them.
Now, there’s plenty of reasons for skepticism. It’s fair to wonder if the 76ers can stay healthy, given all of the injury concerns around both Embiid and Paul George, in particular. If this series goes at least six games, which feels likely, Philadelphia will have played 11 games in 21 days, and playing six guys heavy minutes could cause some wear and tear. But when Tyrese Maxey and Embiid are healthy, it’s a devastating pick-and-roll combination that few — if any — teams can stop. And rookie VJ Edgecombe has not looked remotely afraid of the moment. — Tim Bontemps
Scout’s take on the most important matchup to watch: “I’m fascinated to see if Embiid and KAT guard each other. Teams tend to crossmatch those shooting big matchups, but they might be able to guard each other. I really was impressed with how Towns guarded in the second half of that Hawks series — that was as good as I’ve ever seen him at that end. …
“[But] New York is going to have its hands full guarding Maxey. I guess you’ll try [OG] Anunoby on him, [Mikal] Bridges, [Miles] McBride, [Josh] Hart.”
Experts’ picks: Knicks 7, 76ers 2
