Don’t worry. I’m not gonna do what everyone thinks I’m gonna do and flip out.
I’ve been loud about my Spencer Strider skepticism going back well over a year, and his first start of the season Sunday was, to be frank, a disaster. He couldn’t even get out of the fourth inning, giving up four hits and five walks en route to three runs. Against the Rockies? And his fastball velocity was down yet again, as was the movement on his four-seamer. Again, disaster!
But I’m not panicking. Not yet anyway. Mostly because, well … Coors Field. I don’t care how bad the Rockies offense is; anything can happen in Coors Field. Both because the ball just travels farther there when it’s hit, but also, notably, because the ball doesn’t move the same way when pitchers throw it there as anywhere else.
The ball doesn’t move as much in the thin air, which helps explain why Strider’s four-seamer had just 15 inches of induced Vertical Break, down even from last year. It also likely helps explain why his slider was so much less effective, and probably why he threw his curveball more often than his slider for literally the first time in his career.
Coors Field is such a different environment than any in baseball that it effectively renders analysis of visiting pitchers irrelevant. Chris Sale had a great start this weekend in Coors Field, but I similarly don’t think there’s anything we can learn from it. Coors Field just doesn’t translate, and I’m not going to hold a bad start there against anyone.
I’m still not optimistic about Strider, but I’m no more worried about him today than I was before first pitch Sunday. We’ll learn more about him in his next start, set for this week against the Dodgers in L.A. Jeez, so much for a soft landing. If Strider struggles in that one, I won’t hold it against him much either, but I will at least be able to get a better sense of where he’s at based on the movement and velocity of his pitches in a more normal pitching environment.
But we’re giving him an incomplete for now. Here are the rest of the key storylines to know about from the rest of this weekend’s action:
Six big takeaways from this weekend
Emerson Hancock isn’t slowing down after all
It sure looked like Hancock might be fizzling out. After he opened the season with nine strikeouts in his debut, he hadn’t topped five in four out of his next five, which coincided with him starting to look a bit more vulnerable overall. I was pretty much ready to declare him a middling pitcher, someone who didn’t necessarily need to be rostered across the board … and then he came out with by far the best start of his career, striking out 14 and walking none in seven one-run innings against the Royals Saturday. It wasn’t just a career high for Hancock; it was the most strikeouts by any pitcher in baseball this season.
So … now what?
We’ve got a former top prospect who spent most of the first few years of his career looking like a Quad-A pitcher at best. And now we’ve got this big breakout that is still very much in small-sample size territory, but with a couple of starts of actual, blinding brilliance. And it’s not like Hancock is just the same guy he’s always been – he’s dropped his arm angle to a near-sidearm profile, which has helped pretty much the entire profile play up, and he’s added a more or less new sweeper to the arsenal, too. I don’t know if I buy that this is enough to make Hancock a must-start pitcher moving forward, so if you get an offer for a top-40 type starter in return for Hancock, I’d definitely be open to trading him away.
But he’s already made me look bad a couple of times this season.
Yeah, maybe I was just wrong about Zack Wheeler
I’m getting flashbacks to Brandon Woodruff last season. Wheeler’s velocity predictably dipped from his first start to his second start, down to 93.6 mph Friday, 2.5 mph down from 2026. And it just didn’t matter! He limited the Marlins to just one run on three hits and a couple of walks over six innings of work, and he struck out eight while racking up 14 whiffs on 94 pitches. This is ace stuff, despite the diminished velocity and stuff quality – according to one model on FanGraphs, he’s gone from a 111 Stuff+ to a 103 since last season, the equivalent of going from a top-five mark to something more like a 60th percentile mark among starters.
It’s a similar dropoff to the one Woodruff saw in his return from shoulder surgery last season, but it never really slowed him down. His strikeout rate in 2025 was as good as it has ever been, and his 3.20 ERA was backed up by even better peripherals. Woodruff eventually seems to have fallen apart, but that didn’t really happen until the following season. It might be asking a lot for Wheeler to remain both healthy and effective for the rest of the season, especially at this level. But he’s already beating the odds, and I am growing increasingly uncomfortable betting against him.
Kazuma Okamoto is red hot now
It seemed like there was a lot more enthusiasm around Okamoto than Munetaka Murakami this offseason among Fantasy players, but that disappeared when Murakami emerged as one of the best hitters in the league in April, while Okamoto looked like he was struggling mightily with the adjustment to the majors. The big edge Okamoto was supposed to have over Murakami was the combination of functional power without all of the strikeout concerns, but he finished April with a 31% strikeout rate. That’s a big red flag for a guy with functional power, but not necessarily huge raw power.
But he started to heat up a bit in mid-April and has gone red hot in the first weekend of May, hitting four homers in three games this season. And just like that, he’s got a .791 OPS for the season despite a .236 average. The average is a reflection of the big early strikeout issues, but after he struck out 29 times in his first 20 games (with eight multi-strikeout games), he has struck out just 11 times in his past 13 games (including just two with multiple strikeouts). The production isn’t a fluke here, either, as his xwOBA over his past 50 PA is up to .437. If he’s truly a 20%-ish strikeout hitter, Okamoto is going to end up being the must-start Fantasy option many of us hoped he would be. Maybe it just took him a few weeks to get comfortable.
Justin Wrobleski keeps getting away with it
This happens every season. Last season, it was Tomoyuki Sugano racking up quality start after quality start without generating any strikeouts; in 2024, it was Cole Irvin putting up a 2.86 ERA through the first weekend of May despite a 16.1% strikeout rate; Wade Miley has had similar starts two or three times in the past five seasons. If you look at it outside of just the start of the season, you’ll see even more examples: Jason Alexander had an eight-start stretch last August-September with a 2.17 ERA; Adrian Houser had a six-start stretch last June-July with a 2.06 ERA despite the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball in that stretch.
None of them lasted. You simply cannot survive in the modern game with a strikeout rate as poor as Wrobleski’s, which sits at a microscopic 10.4% right now. I don’t care what else you thrive with; I don’t care what your teammates look like. A major-league pitcher simply cannot survive striking out 10% of opposing hitters. I’m not sure I’d buy Wrobleski as a must-start pitcher if he were striking out hitters twice as often as he is, frankly.
I can say “sell high on Wrobleski,” but nobody’s going to be buying. Nobody should be buying, at least, but there’s no downside to trying to trade him, especially since my asking price for a return right now would be basically anyone I think will be worth using in a few weeks. The disappointing and currently ill Trevor Rogers? Yep. His even more disappointing teammate, Kyle Bradish (on whom, more later)? Absolutely.
Otherwise, it’s fine to continue to ride Wrobleski and hope you can get another win or two out of him before he blows up. And he will. I just hope you have the good sense to stop starting him as soon as the first bad start happens.
I genuinely don’t know what to say about Eldemaro Vargas
It’s probably fake, right? He’s a 34-year-old with no track record of high-level production at the MLB level – his previous career-high in OPS was in 2019, when he put up a .712 mark as a 27-year-old. And it’s not like he’s been a great hitter in the minors, with an .801 OPS in 501 Triple-A games. After another big weekend, Vargas is hitting .382/.406/.657 on the season while already matching his career-high with six homers.
But here’s the most stunning thing about this: It doesn’t actually look like a fluke. Okay, his .390 expected wOBA doesn’t quite back up his .460 actual wOBA, but a .390 xwOBA is also good for the 28th-best mark in baseball, tied with Freddie Freeman and Vladimir Guerrero. Of course, it’s right ahead of Gary Sanchez and Ryan O’Hearn on the leaderboard, which tells you something about how much value this stat has in a small sample size.
Vargas’ production so far is real. He has earned it. I just don’t have any reason to believe it will prove sustainable. But I don’t see a good argument against riding him while he’s hot.
Jordan Walker got hot again
More than a great start, you know what I love to see from a breakout player? How they react to the inevitable slump. Walker came out of the gates red hot to open the season, but he couldn’t sustain it, eventually reaching a point on April 26 where he had just a .235 xwOBA over his previous 50 plate appearances. For a guy who had just a .278 xwOBA in each of the previous two seasons, it would have been natural for Walker to just revert to who he’s always been.
And maybe he still will. But Walker’s most recent 50 plate appearances have bumped back up to a .349 xwOBA – not quite as good as he was earlier in the season, but much better than he’s been through his MLB career. That doesn’t mean Walker is going to be exactly that good forever; given the swing-and-miss issues in his game, I do think he’ll probably just be streaky forever. But seeing him pull out of a slump like this is obviously a good sign, and one I’m excited to see him build on. I feel even better about Walker now than I did when he was homering every day a few weeks ago.
I don’t know where we went wrong on Kyle Bradish
Here’s what’s frustrating about Bradish: I think he just needs to pitch better. He just needs to pitch better, like it’s so easy. I know it isn’t. I know what he’s trying to do is incredibly difficult. But I say he “just” needs to pitch better because I don’t really see any reason to think he can’t be just as good as he’s been in the past. His fastball velocity is within a half-tick of last season’s, and while the movement profiles on his pitches have changed a bit, I would guess that’s mostly just about him needing to pitch better – it seems like he’s cutting everything a bit, getting an inch or two more horizontal movement and a bit less vertical (especially on the four-seamer, which is key).
I’m not an expert on kinesiology or pitch mechanics, but my guess is there’s some kind of flaw in his mechanics that could be tweaked to get him on track. It’s just a guess, and it would still require Bradish or someone on the Orioles staff to diagnose, identify, and then fix whatever the underlying issue is. Again: Like it’s so easy. It isn’t. But Bradish doesn’t look so broken that I’ve given up faith in him, and he doesn’t look so broken that I wouldn’t add him immediately if you dropped him. So don’t.
Luis Castillo looks finished
I don’t share that same optimism for Castillo. I’m not saying he’ll never be useful again, but we’ve seen a pretty big dropoff in his baseline talent over the past few seasons, and I don’t have any reason to think he’s about to turn it around. His strikeout rate continues to tick down, his walk rate is up, and he’s giving up a lot more hard contact than ever before. Castillo was already basically useless away from home last season, putting up a 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, so he needed to show better skills this season to be much more than just a matchup-dependent Fantasy option, and he’s done the opposite. I’m saying he’s droppable at this point in most 12-team leagues.
News and notes
The injuries just won’t stop: Ronald Acuña was placed on the IL with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain. Hopefully it ends up being a relatively short stay on the IL, but I’ll say this: Only about 14% of position players who went on the IL with a strained hamstring between 2021 and 2025 returned within 10 days of first being eligible. Plan on a longer stay than just 10 days, and hope you end up pleasantly surprised.
Ryan Helsley was placed on the IL Friday with right elbow inflammation. Imaging showed no structural damage, but this injury came without much warning. The Orioles bullpen feels pretty wide open in his absence. Yennier Cano has the most closing experience, but Rico Garcia and Anthony Nunez have often been used in more high-leverage situations so far this season.
The Giants are promoting Bryce Eldridge and catcher Jesus Rodriguez. Eldridge is the better prospect and pickup for Fantasy, though there is some concern over how much contact he’ll make and even how much he’ll play. With DH-only eligibility right now, it’s hard to fit him in your lineup, but I’d be trying to add him where I can because there is 30-plus homer upside here. Rodriguez is more of a deep-league flier as a second catcher, but I just don’t know how much he’s likely to play unless he gets hot very quickly or they use him at other positions, as they did in the minors.
Ryan Pepiot will undergo hip surgery on May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season. A disappointing outcome for a guy we liked a lot as a breakout candidate.
Joe Ryan left Sunday’s start after just nine pitches with right elbow soreness. Don’t have any more details on that, but I’d assume he’s going to miss some time and certainly won’t start him anywhere this weekend.
File this one under, “Shocked, but not surprised:” The Marlins optioned Agustin Ramirez to Triple-A. They are calling up prospect Joe Mack to replace him, and I expect Mack to be the team’s primary catcher moving forward since he’s the best defensive option here. He has some mild No. 2 catcher upside as a power bat. I think Ramirez’s demotion could be a short one; it just depends on whether the plan here is to just have him focus on getting his swing right and returning as a DH. If they want him to focus on defense (either behind the plate or at first base, where he used to moonlight with the Yankees), it could be a longer absence.
Cal Raleigh missed Saturday and Sunday with right side soreness. The Mariners reported he’s day-to-day, but there’s some risk in starting him this week.
Garrett Crochet underwent an MRI on his left shoulder that came back clean. On Sunday, he was able to play catch for the first time since going on the IL, so hopefully we’re not looking at a long-term absence.
Jackson Chourio left a rehab game this weekend after fouling a ball off his foot. X-rays came back negative, but it’s definitely going to delay his return.
Josh Hader will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. He’s going to take at least a couple of weeks since he isn’t eligible to return until late May either way.
Ben Rice left early Sunday with a left hand contusion. X-rays came back negative, so hopefully he’s good to go this week.
Ranger Suarez left early Sunday with right hamstring tightness. He’s not expected to go for an MRI, and the hope is he’ll make his next scheduled start. It’s risky, but I’d keep him in my lineup absent obviously better options.
Jacob Misiorowski left early Friday with a right hamstring cramp. He participated in running drills Saturday and reported he felt fine, so I’m starting him in all leagues unless there is some kind of setback.
Nico Hoerner left Friday with neck tightness but then returned to the lineup Sunday.
Wyatt Langford will be shut down for the next week after aggravating his injured forearm.
The Cubs reinstated Daniel Palencia from the IL.
The Braves are planning to activate Raisel Iglesias prior to Tuesday’s game, so take Robert Suarez out of your lineups at least in points leagues.
Jhoan Duran hit 100 MPH in a bullpen Saturday and may return in the next couple days without a rehab assignment. I’m inclined to start him in any league with a saves category.
AJ Hinch reported Saturday that Kenley Jansen has been day-to-day with right groin/abdomen soreness. Look at Kyle Finnegan in deeper category leagues.
Carlos Rodon will make his next rehab start Tuesday at Triple-A, and it could be his last before rejoining the Yankees.
Christian Walker was back in the lineup Sunday after leaving Saturday. He took a fastball off the head during his final at-bat, but he passed all concussion testing, thankfully.
Yandy Diaz left Friday with left side tightness and then missed both Saturday and Sunday, making him a risky start this week.
Nick Lodolo is expected to make his season debut Friday against the Astros in Cincinnati. I’m still excited for Lodolo, but that’s a pretty scary landing spot, so I’d be cautious with him in his first start back.
The Rays are transitioning Griffin Jax to a starter’s role. He threw 2.2 scoreless innings and built up to 45 pitches this weekend. He has the arsenal to do it, but I suspect it’s going to be a few more weeks before he’s getting a starter’s leash, so he isn’t a high-priority add for me.
Andrew Vaughn appears on track to return on Monday. He missed the first month with a hamate bone fracture in his left hand.
The Reds plan to call up Chase Petty to start Monday against the Cubs.
Lars Nootbaar is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as next week. The hope is he’ll be ready to return late May or early June.
Others to the IL this weekend:
- Yusei Kikuchi with left shoulder inflammation
- German Marquez with right forearm nerve irritation
- Ronny Mauricio with a fractured thumb
- Twins reliever Cole Sands with a right forearm strain
