Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is going under the knife to remove loose bodies from his elbow. We don’t yet have a firm timeline for a possible return, but players typically miss about two or three months after similar surgeries, a timeline that would likely take Skubal out of Cy Young consideration. Given that he was the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner in decades, it seems now that the door is open for someone else.
Here are the top five from the current odds for AL Cy Young, via Caesars:
- Cam Schlittler, Yankees, +215
- Max Fried, Yankees, +350
- José Soriano, Angels, +450
- Dylan Cease, Blue Jays, +550
- Jacob deGrom, Rangers, +1300
It’s interesting to see Schlittler at the top. We often talk about a “Yankees tax” and it would seem to apply here. That is to say that the Yankees are the most popular and visible team in the AL by a decent margin, meaning more people bet on their players, which subsequently moves the odds.
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal to undergo elbow surgery to remove loose bodies; timeline unclear
Matt Snyder
That’s not to say that Schlittler isn’t capable of pitching like an ace or that he won’t be deserving of a Cy Young come September. He’s looked the part thus far: 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 49 strikeouts against only six walks in 41 ⅔ innings. I’m just not sure about the workload. Between the minors and majors last season, he threw 149 ⅔ innings. We could add in 14 ⅓ more for the playoffs, but how much higher are the Yankees willing to let him go this season? I don’t think he goes much over 170, and it’s difficult to win the Cy Young with less than that.
Fried won’t have that type of limitation. He’s finished second before and this might well be his best chance to secure that elusive Cy Young.
Soriano would be the winner right now with his 5-1 record on a terrible team, along with a 0.84 ERA and 2.6 WAR, but it’s hard to bet on him continuing to look like prime Pedro Martinez.
Cease has finished second and fourth before, but he can be inconsistent and has issues with walks.
deGrom would be quite a story. He already has two Cy Youngs, but he’s turning 38 this year and just returned from Tommy John surgery last season. So far in 2026, he’s 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 31 ⅓ innings. He threw over 170 innings last season, so maybe he gets up to 190ish this year? In looking at that +1300, I’d give him a look. He feels like a decent bet.
Two possible longshots that caught my eye:
- Framber Valdez is at +4000 and he’s been pretty good thus far. His pedigree includes three top-10 finishes.
- Garrett Crochet is on the injured list and was terrible in three of his six starts so far. The plan is for him to return on May 12. There’s enough runway there that if he comes back and pitches the rest of the season the way he did last year, he’s got a shot. He’s at +5000.
