NBA odds: How Joel Embiid being ruled out of 76ers-Knicks Game 2 has impacted odds, model simulations
Here’s how Embiid’s absence impacts the SportsLine Projection Model’s simulations for 76ers vs. Knicks Game 2
By
Gene Menez
May 6, 2026
at
3:34 pm ET
•
1 min read
Sportsbook platforms reacted quickly to the news that Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid has been ruled out of Wednesday’s Game 2 between the Knicks and 76ers because of soreness in his hip and ankle.
The Knicks, who have won their last four playoff games by 16, 29, 51 and 39 points and lead the best-of-seven series against Philadelphia 1-0, went from 7.5-point favorites on Wednesday morning to 10.5-point favorites after ESPN’s Shams Charania declared that Embiid would be ruled out. New York also went from -294 favorites on the money line to -426 for Game 2 at Madison Square Garden.
The good news for the 76ers is that the team has dealt with this situation with the oft-injured Embiid repeatedly this season. They have played 47 games this campaign, including the playoffs, without their multi-skilled big man and have gone 22-25. They are 27-16 with Embiid in the lineup. Just two weeks ago in the first round playoff series against the Celtics, Philadelphia won Game 2 in Boston without Embiid 111-97.
However, the 7-foot Embiid played a huge role in the 76ers overcoming a 3-1 series deficit to knock out Boston. In the deciding Game 7 of the series he poured in 34 points (on 12-of-26 shooting), grabbed 12 rebounds and passed out six assists in the 109-100 76ers upset.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinal against the Knicks, however, was much different. He scored just 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting and pulled down just four rebounds in 25 minutes. Philadelphia was blown out 137-98.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, gave New York a 67% chance to cover the point spread prior to the Embiid news and still gives the Knicks a 67% chance to cover even though the line has risen by three points.
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