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Most experienced fantasy baseball managers understand the difference between surface stats and underlying metrics, and how production is not always an accurate reflection of how a player has truly performed.
Identifying players whose fortunes are due to change, for better or worse, is perhaps an obvious topic to pursue one month into the season. However, this level of player evaluation tends to focus more on luck than skill. A typical analysis sees that a pitcher cannot continue to carry such a low BABIP, so you’d expect him to start yielding more hits. There was a time when this was considered a next-level approach, but now it’s mainstream.
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A more advanced exploration would be to explore how much a given player’s skills have changed from preseason expectations. This is nothing new, as fantasy analysts have been going down this road for more than 20 years. However, with the accessibility of newfangled metrics, mostly courtesy of Statcast, we should have an even more trustworthy grasp of a player’s skill set and, therefore, a better idea regarding future performance. In other words, we’re at the point of the season where incorporating these changes into our player evaluation is more than reasonable.
Here are five starting pitchers for whom I have compared preseason expectations to their 2026 performance thus far and found that these better days are likely to continue.
Randy Vasquez, San Diego PadresHeading into the season, Vasquez’s fantasy role was as a streamer, especially for favorable home dates in Petco Park. His modest strikeout rate was detrimental in leagues with games started or innings limits. He’s still not dominant, but his strikeout rate has improved to the level where he can be used for almost all of his outings.
Vasquez turned heads in the spring with a marked increase in velocity on his four-seam fastball. It wasn’t by accident, as he underwent an offseason program designed to add strength and improve velocity, in part under the guidance of Yu Darvish.
The club also worked on redistributing his pitch mix to take advantage of the added velocity. Vasquez is throwing significantly more rising fastballs and a few extra cutters while cutting back on his sinker and slider. His strikeout rate from 2024-25 was around 14%, but it has now spiked to 22.4%, with the chance to increase further as he continues to refine his repertoire. The added velocity not only renders his fastball more effective, but the added separation from his secondary offerings benefits them as well.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland GuardiansWilliams’ early success is driven by many luck-related metrics that are likely to regress and his walk rate is still elevated. That stated, he is exhibiting ample improvements elsewhere, so in the likelihood that his .231 BABIP and 82.2% left-on-base rate normalize, he’ll still be an improved pitcher, even with that above-average walk rate.
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Key to this analysis is that his 2025 3.06 ERA was a mirage, as evidenced by estimators that are all at least one run higher. His 2026 projection was much closer to 4.00. However, I now view him as being better than a 4.00 guy, but perhaps a bit worse than his current 3.28 ERA.
Keep in mind that the Guardians have developed a reputation for working with their pitchers to optimize effectiveness and Williams is throwing far fewer four-seamers and cutters while increasing his sinker and slider usage. His stuff and location metrics are vastly improved and his swinging-strike and called-strike rates are both career highs. He’s also more pitch-efficient, although some of that is due to a low BABIP.
The expectation is that Williams will maintain these improvements, so even when he’s subject to regression, the landing point is better than what was projected heading into the season.
Jose Soriano, Los Angeles AngelsFor a few years, the question was, “Imagine what Soriano could do if he stayed healthy?” Well, last season, he set career highs with 31 starts and 169 IP, posting a 4.26 ERA and an elevated 1.40 WHIP. As an extreme ground ball pitcher, his .306 BABIP wasn’t out of line with expectations, but his 10.8% walk rate was unexpectedly high, especially considering he’s prone to yielding a lot of hits. However, a low 67.8% left-on-base mark inflated his ERA, with estimators pointing to the 3.50-3.90 range.
So far in 2026, Soriano is sporting a much higher strikeout rate and, while his walks continue to be bloated, they are down a tick. To be fair, his .250 BABIP and especially his 95.5% left-on-base level are both candidates for regression, but he demonstrates reason for optimism when things settle.
Soriano also tweaked his arsenal, increasing his four-seamer and splitter deployment while relying much less on his sinker. The introduction of a couple of swing-and-miss pitches has caused his strikeout rate to increase by eight points, while he remains a ground ball pitcher. His stuff is unchanged, but his location has improved.
Soriano’s WHIP will likely limit his fantasy value and his current 1.76 ERA is artificially low. Even so, maintaining his current improvements could well result in, at best, a near-elite ERA and strikeout rate and, at a minimum, much better than projected end-of-season results.
Will Warren, New York YankeesLast season, Warren led all rookie pitchers in strikeouts, but his control was spotty. The Yankees worked with him in the offseason, resulting in fewer walks. In 2025, he issued a free pass 9.1% of the time, but now that’s down to just 6.3%.
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The primary change was in his approach. Warren could throw his four-seamer for strikes, but he was wild with both his sweeper and sinker, which has more run than normal two-seamers. He still throws all his pitches at about the same rate, but the club has Warren focusing on heat early in the count, then trying to induce chase with his other offerings. In addition, the Yankees worked on cleaning up his delivery, so there is less body movement and better tunneling.
Overall, the results have been excellent, though he stumbled in his newest outing. That stated, he’s in only his second full season, and that’s going to happen on occasion.
A refined approach and more consistent mechanics are enough to raise expectations in a tough AL East. However, it should be noted that Warren needs to continue limiting walks since there will soon be a logjam in the Yankees rotation. When Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon return, someone’s role will change, unless the club opts to go to a six-man rotation.
Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers and Warren all deserve to pitch every fifth game. Most feel Weathers will be end up being the the odd man out. Rodon is due back this weekend, and he’ll replace Elmer Rodriguez. Once Cole returns, manager Aaron Boone must make a tough decision.
Taj Bradley, Minnesota TwinsBradley was a top prospect in the minors, but until this season he had yet to display that kind of form. Some talent evaluators posited that Bradley’s velocity and location were all he needed to handle minor league hitters.
Since his 2023 debut he has exhibited good stuff in the majors, but batters adjusted. This season, Bradley is throwing from a lower arm angle, adding deception to his fastball up in the zone and he’s inducing more swings and misses. He’s also showing natural growth on his secondaries, to the point all four of his pitches are now above-average offerings.
His location is still a work in progress, but when you’re working with four plus-pitches, and have shown the ability to adjust, improved control should follow. Better control not only leads to fewer walks, but it also increases strikeouts.
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