Jamey's 2026 Fantasy busts 1.0: De'Von Achane carries risk at current ADP amid concerns with Miami's offense

USATSI

The headline of the column says Busts 1.0. But really, this is my do-not-draft list if the Average Draft Position for these players stays the same in August as it is in early May.

For this column, we’re using the ADP data on FantasyPros. While this ADP mostly reflects best-ball drafts, it is an early guide of what could happen this season. It’s a good starting point for our conversation on busts.

I will do at least two more versions of sleepers, breakouts, and busts before the start of the season. But now that the rookies are on NFL rosters, we can fully focus on the players who should matter the most to you in your Fantasy leagues this year.

And, as you’ll read here, these are 10 players you might want to avoid.

Running Back

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De’Von Achane

MIA

Miami

• #28

Age: 24

• Experience: 4 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

13th

RB RNK

6th

PROJ PTS

289.1

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

RUYDS

1350

REC

REYDS

488

TD

FPTS/G

20.2

This is a tricky one because the FantasyPros ADP for Achane is actually not bad at No. 14 overall as RB6. But in all the mock drafts we’ve done this offseason, he’s been a first-round pick. And in some leagues, he’s gone as the No. 3 running back off the board behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. I love Achane, and he’s an amazing talent. But the situation in Miami could be atrocious with the lack of talent around him, especially if Malik Willis fails to involve Achane in the passing game at a high level. He’s averaged 86 targets and 72.5 receptions the past two seasons as the lead running back for the Dolphins, but Willis might be more apt to run than use Achane as an outlet in the passing game. On top of that, defenses will make stopping Achane even more of a focal point with a receiving corps led by some combination of Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas and Kevin Coleman Jr. The scoring chances for Achane could also dwindle given Miami’s offensive weapons, and he has 12 total touchdowns in each of the past two years. I’m fine drafting Achane in Round 2, but I do not want to draft him in Round 1 this season.

Travis Etienne

NO

New Orleans

• #1

Age: 27

• Experience: 6 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

45th

RB RNK

19th

PROJ PTS

230.5

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

RUYDS

1107

REC

REYDS

292

TD

FPTS/G

14.9

It doesn’t appear that Alvin Kamara is leaving New Orleans this season, which means we could have a frustrating timeshare in the Saints backfield. And that limits the upside for Etienne, who has a FantasyPros ADP of No. 45 overall as RB17. The Louisiana native signed a four-year, $52 million deal to play in New Orleans, so he should be the 1A running back. But Kamara could work on passing downs, and we’ll see how much that hinders the production for Etienne. He was great in 2025 with the Jaguars when he averaged 14.9 PPR points per game. But keep in mind, he only has two seasons in his career over 12.5 PPR points per game, and he was miserable in 2024 when he averaged a career-low 8.7 PPR points. Now, Kamara turns 31 in July, and he missed six games last season with a knee injury. Any missed time in 2026 would be a huge boost for Etienne. Round 4 isn’t a horrible time to gamble on Etienne, but I would prefer to draft him in Round 5.

TreVeyon Henderson

NE

New England

• #32

Age: 23

• Experience: 2 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

51st

RB RNK

22nd

PROJ PTS

174.6

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

RUYDS

911

REC

REYDS

221

TD

FPTS/G

12.1

I was so excited to draft Henderson as a rookie in 2025. I loved his potential with the Patriots, and I thought he would be a star. He showed that potential in a few games last season, especially in Weeks 9-11 when Rhamondre Stevenson was injured, and Henderson averaged 24.3 PPR points over that span. He also scored 30.1 PPR points in Week 15 against Buffalo and 17.3 PPR points in Week 18 against Miami. But if you remove those five games, then Henderson averaged just 6.4 PPR points in his other 16 outings, including the playoffs. For the year, he appeared in 18 games with Stevenson, who played more snaps than Henderson in 15 of those contests. I’m still hopeful for Henderson to be a star in his sophomore campaign, but I would not draft him at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 57 overall as RB21. I view Henderson as more of a high-end flex, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 6.

RJ Harvey

DEN

Denver

• #12

Age: 25

• Experience: 2 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

71st

RB RNK

29th

PROJ PTS

214.9

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

RUYDS

540

REC

REYDS

356

TD

FPTS/G

12.2

Harvey was a great Fantasy running back to close 2025 when he scored at least 18.6 PPR points in three of his final five games in the regular season. J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 10, and Harvey took over Denver’s backfield with at least 14 total touches in six of seven games from Weeks 11-18. But when Dobbins was healthy, it was hard to trust Harvey as even a flex. He averaged just 9.9 PPR points in the first 10 games of the season and only had three games with double digits in PPR over that span. He also had one game with double digits in touches. This offseason, the Broncos re-signed Dobbins and drafted rookie running back Jonah Coleman, who is expected to have a role alongside Dobbins and Harvey. While Coleman will likely be third on the depth chart, his presence limits the potential upside if Dobbins were to miss any time due to injury like we saw in 2025. I’m still hopeful Harvey’s talent will get him on the field enough to matter as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back in the majority of leagues, but his FantasyPros ADP at No. 66 overall as RB26 is too expensive. The earliest I would draft Harvey this season is Round 7.

Wide Receiver

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Malik Nabers

NYG

N.Y. Giants

• #1

Age: 22

• Experience: 3 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

27th

WR RNK

11th

PROJ PTS

294.7

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

REYDS

271

TD

FPTS/G

14.3

I’m excited for Nabers (knee) to return at full strength, and he is the player most likely to come off this list when I do any future busts columns. But since we don’t know his availability for training camp or even Week 1 after he suffered a torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee in Week 4, it’s hard to draft him at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 13 overall as WR8. As of now, I’d rather have a few receivers being drafted after Nabers instead, including Rashee Rice, Nico Collins and George Pickens. It could take Nabers some time to get back to 100 percent with his health, and his production could suffer. The Giants also beefed up their receiving corps with the additions of Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields, and we’ll see how those players impact Nabers. I don’t expect him to struggle when healthy, but Jaxson Dart will build a rapport with those pass catchers while Nabers continues to rehab. For now, the earliest I would draft Nabers is early Round 3.

Chris Olave

NO

New Orleans

• #12

Age: 25

• Experience: 5 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

31st

WR RNK

13th

PROJ PTS

271.3

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

100

TAR

156

REYDS

1163

TD

FPTS/G

16.8

Olave had a career season in 2025 when he averaged 16.8 PPR points. He set career highs in catches (100), yards (1,163), touchdowns (nine) and targets (156) while playing in 16 games. But if you split his season in half, it might tell a different story, especially when you factor in the addition of first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson. In nine games last season with Rashid Shaheed before he was traded to Seattle, Olave only averaged 14.1 PPR points. Without Shaheed, Olave was a monster at 20.2 PPR points per game in seven outings. Now, you can argue that Olave took off once Tyler Shough became the starter in Week 8, and that’s fair. But I’m worried that Olave could suffer with Tyson on the field and stealing targets. The Saints also added other rookies in Bryce Lance and Oscar Delp, and we know Juwan Johnson, Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara will need targets as well. I view Olave as a high-end No. 2 receiver worth drafting in Round 3, but I will pass on him at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 20 overall as WR11.

Jaylen Waddle

DEN

Denver

• #17

Age: 27

• Experience: 6 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

49th

WR RNK

21st

PROJ PTS

210.8

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

100

REYDS

910

TD

FPTS/G

12.1

It’s fair to wonder if Waddle leaving Miami via trade for Denver was good for his Fantasy value or not. With the Dolphins, Waddle would have been fed targets, but we don’t know if Malik Willis is a good quarterback yet. We’ve seen receivers have success with Bo Nix, but the Broncos have a crowded receiving corps led by Courtland Sutton. I expect Waddle to lead Denver in targets this season, but it might not be by a wide margin. Sutton has led the Broncos in targets in each of the past two seasons with Nix under center, with 135 in 2024 and 124 last season. The problem for Waddle and Sutton could be not having enough targets for both to succeed. In 2024, Javonte Williams was second on the Broncos in targets with 70. Troy Franklin was second on the team in targets in 2025 with 104. Denver was fourth in the NFL in pass attempts in 2025 with 613, so Waddle’s targets could come at the expense of Franklin, Evan Engram (76), Marvin Mims Jr. (51) and Pat Bryant (49), which makes sense. Sutton, 30, also could take a step back. But Waddle has also struggled in the past two years when he averaged just 9.9 PPR points per game in 2024 and 12.1 PPR points in 2025. From 2021-23, Waddle averaged at least 14.2 PPR points per game, and I’m hopeful that a healthy Waddle in a new offense will return to his early-career form. I would draft Waddle in Round 5, but his FantasyPros ADP is No. 42 overall as WR20. That’s too expensive for me as of now.

Davante Adams

LAR

L.A. Rams

• #17

Age: 33

• Experience: 13 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

59th

WR RNK

25th

PROJ PTS

221.4

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

114

REYDS

789

TD

FPTS/G

15.9

Adams led the NFL in touchdown receptions last season with 14, which was amazing since he did that in 14 games. He also added another touchdown in the NFL playoffs. But he was 44th in receptions with 60 and tied for 34th in receiving yards with 789. I love Adams as the No. 2 receiver for the Rams, and he could still score double digits in touchdowns. But it’s hard to justify drafting him at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 48 overall as WR22 if his catches and yards don’t improve. The good news is the Rams only added rookie tight end Max Klare in Round 2 of the NFL Draft and rookie receiver CJ Daniels in Round 6. The bad news is Adams is 33, and Father Time could be catching up to the potential Hall of Famer. In the seven games last season where Adams failed to score a touchdown, including the playoffs, Adams averaged just 9.3 PPR points and had two games with more than 12 PPR points. The earliest I would draft Adams as of now is the middle of Round 5.

Tight End

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Harold Fannin Jr.

CLE

Cleveland

• #44

Age: 21

• Experience: 2 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

80th

TE RNK

8th

PROJ PTS

211.9

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

107

REYDS

731

TD

FPTS/G

11.7

Fannin was amazing in 2025 as a rookie, and he closed the year on a tear with at least 11 PPR points in five games in a row, while averaging 15.8 PPR points over that span. It helped propel Fannin to the No. 8 PPR tight end for the season, and he finished the year with 72 catches for 731 yards and six touchdowns on 107 targets, which led the team. Fannin could lead the Browns in all those categories again in 2026, but he has much more significant competition now. Cleveland drafted receiver KC Concepcion with the No. 24 overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft, and the Browns added receiver Denzel Boston in Round 2 at No. 39 overall. Jerry Jeudy remains on the roster, and we’ll see if the upgraded receiving corps hinders Fannin in his sophomore campaign. I would still draft Fannin as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but I don’t like his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 73 overall as TE6. The earliest I would draft Fannin is Round 8.

Dalton Kincaid

BUF

Buffalo

• #86

Age: 26

• Experience: 4 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

141st

TE RNK

16th

PROJ PTS

153.3

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

REYDS

571

TD

FPTS/G

10.5

The FantasyPros ADP for Kincaid makes no sense to me. He’s currently at No. 124 overall as TE12, and I want no part of Kincaid as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season. He continues to struggle with knee injuries in each of the past two years, missing nine games over that span and parts of others. He had a quality season in 2025 at 10.5 PPR points per game, and he had seven outings with at least 11.8 PPR points, including the playoffs, in the 14 appearances that he made. But Buffalo improved its receiving corps this offseason with the additions of D.J. Moore and rookie Skyler Bell, and tight end Dawson Knox got a contract extension. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kincaid had several good weeks and performed like a borderline starter in all Fantasy leagues this season. But I’d rather draft several guys who are going after him based on the ADP, including Isaiah Likely and Dallas Goedert. I would only draft Kincaid with a late-round pick as a high-end backup.