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Year after year, the NBA draft lottery remains one of the highest-stakes, obsessed-over and even conspiracy-rich moments on the sports calendar.
The 2026 edition is no different — but the results could impact the NBA landscape for a generation. Those are the stakes as the ping-pong balls are drawn Sunday.
Look at the past six months: Despite varying levels of denials, a case could easily be made that there were as many as nine teams doing some level of tanking to improve their lottery odds. A third of the league.
Each team had its unique set of reasons for racing to the bottom, plus hopes and dreams as it looked at the list of impact prospects in this draft, including AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr., Caleb Wilson and others.
But they can be clustered into four defining groups:
No team’s future, both immediate and in the long term, could be impacted more Sunday than the LA Clippers’.
They won’t have anyone in the lottery drawing room or on stage, but they could be huge winners — or significant losers.
Here’s why: In a trade deadline deal for center Ivica Zubac in February, the Pacers sent the Clippers their 2026 first-round pick if it falls in Nos. 5 and 9. This is a coin flip.
The Pacers have a 52% chance of getting a pick in the top four and a 48% chance of the pick falling to spots 5 or 6, thus sending it to LA. It’s a gigantic sliding-doors moment.
For the Clippers, it’s a chance to land a potential franchise-changing prospect and kick-start a retrofit they began last winter when they traded Zubac and James Harden.
If they don’t get the pick, they will be forced to wait. As part of the Zubac trade, they’d then get the Pacers’ first-round pick in 2031.
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Indiana is coming off a planned gap year with Tyrese Haliburton recovering from a torn Achilles. The Pacers acquired Zubac to replace franchise center Myles Turner, but adding a top-four pick to the core that reached the Finals just last year could change their ceiling — and the entire Eastern Conference landscape — over the next few seasons.
Indiana hasn’t moved up in the lottery since 1989, but this is the first time in 40 years they’ve had a chance to land in the top four.
One more unfortunate reality for the Clippers: Their own pick, which is No. 12, has a 7% chance of jumping into the top four and a 1.5% chance of landing at No. 1.
But it is owned by the Thunder — unprotected — as part of the deal that also sent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City. If the defending champs draw a lottery hit on this Clippers’ pick, the outcry across the league would be a spectacle to behold.
With two first-rounders in the draft — they also have Philadelphia’s selection at No. 17 and only one roster spot currently available — the Thunder might look to trade up in the draft.
If they launch up the board for free, their already solid foundation for a dynasty strengthens even more.
Needless to say, that pick jumping up would be … less than ideal for the Clippers.
Two years ago, the Hawks hit a bull’s-eye when they won the draft lottery with just a 3% chance.
They don’t own their pick this season — San Antonio does — but after making the playoffs that pick isn’t in the lottery anyway.
Still, thanks to an incredible trade at last year’s draft, the Hawks are very much in the game, coming off a 46-win regular season, their best in a decade.
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The Hawks will get the better of the Bucks’ or the Pelicans’ picks, a phenomenal outcome as the return for moving back 10 spots in the 2025 draft in a deal that delivered New Orleans the rights to center Derik Queen.
With the odds for the Bucks and Pelicans essentially combined to juice their overall chances, the Hawks have an implied 40% probability at landing a pick in the top four. And they have a 90% chance of getting a pick in the top eight.
Four teams are trying to execute this delicate hedge: pick up a talented young player with some lottery luck and then “flip” into a winning team — quickly. Pressure from fanbases and even ownership, fatigued of rebuilding, is definitely playing a role in some of these cases.
Washington Wizards: This is the third consecutive year the Wizards have had the highest odds to get a top four pick, and they don’t intend to be in this same position a year from now.
This will be their fourth lottery pick in that span. They traded for Trae Young and Anthony Davis last season, and their intention is to deploy them together with this year’s draft pick to quickly rise up the Eastern Conference.
Utah Jazz: Utah is overdue for lottery luck. In 11 visits to the lottery, the Jazz have never moved up and have dropped four times, including in the past two years.
They’ve also been fined $600,000 over the past two seasons for violating anti-tanking rules.
The idea is to pair a young prospect — they have a 45% chance at getting a top-four pick — with a core of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George and (perhaps) retained free agent Walker Kessler next season to become competitive in the West. That group missed a combined 171 games this season.
Brooklyn Nets: In 2024, the Nets made a deal with the Rockets to regain control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks while giving control of their 2027 first to Houston.
The timeline was simple: Focus on the draft for two years and start to get better by 2027.
They traded for and retained Michael Porter Jr. — who missed 30 games after missing a total of six in the previous two seasons — and could have close to $50 million in cap space to add to the roster.
Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving was held out for the season to allow for a comprehensive recovery from a torn ACL, and Davis was traded largely for cap relief and three future picks.
After making this selection, Dallas does not control its first-round pick again until 2030. The plan is to get a running mate for Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg, get healthy and be back in the playoffs — ASAP.
ESPNThe long shotsLast season, the Mavs had a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery and the Spurs had a 6.5% chance of getting No. 2. Both, of course, hit and gave those franchises major talent injections.If a single-digit hits again, the repercussions could be massive.Miami Heat: They have just a 4% chance of landing in the top four, but they are searching for a star in the trade market. Getting some luck could have them looking to cash in.
Golden State Warriors: Badly in need of a talent infusion after losing Jimmy Butler to an ACL injury, the Warriors were willing to offer their first-round pick in a package for Giannis Antetokounmpo earlier this season.
The Bucks weren’t interested, so the Warriors kept it.
The pick has a 9% chance of landing in the top four; getting Steph Curry a young running mate would turn the league on its head.
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