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Last Monday in this space, I did my first preview of a potential quarterback battle in the NFL using FanDuel odds for the projected winner. It was the Raiders, and there is a legit competition in Las Vegas. That is clearly not the case with the AFC West-rival Kansas City Chiefs, but FD still has odds on their Week 1 starter. What we can glean from them is that the sportsbook clearly believes Mahomes will be ready for the opener off rehab for a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee.

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The NFL schedule release is this week, and the Chiefs are candidates to visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the annual Kickoff Game, which this year is held on a Wednesday (Sept. 9) instead of the usual Thursday. That is due to a scheduling conflict with the league’s first regular-season game in Australia on Sept. 10 between the 49ers and Rams.

Without question, the league would love to open with Chiefs-Seahawks in Mahomes’ return from that injury, as that would be a ratings bonanza – not that all Kickoff Games aren’t. But even Chiefs CEO and chairman Clark Hunt has been on the record that Kansas City will not be in that matchup because of the uncertainty over Mahomes’ status.

“I don’t think that’s on the table anymore. I think from a league standpoint, there would be some concern whether [Patrick Mahomes] would be ready to go,” Hunt reported at the NFL owners’ meeting in March.

Does anyone really want to see Justin Fields, rookie Garrett Nussmeier or Chris Oladokun in the first NFL game of 2026 in primetime? Plus, the Chiefs clearly are not a good team without Mahomes under center, cratering to 11 losses in 2025. Although, Mahomes wasn’t quite up to usual standards himself in 14 games played, leading one-game winning drive compared to seven in 2024.

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Mahomes tore those ligaments Dec. 14, had surgery the next day – that was huge for his recovery instead of having to wait weeks due to swelling — and by all accounts is ahead of schedule in his rehab. The two-time regular-season MVP is expected to participate in Kansas City’s OTAs beginning May 26, but obviously in very limited fashion.

“He is in a good position to be able to do some things,” coach Andy Reid reported of Mahomes last week regarding OTAs. “If he can do some things, [he’ll do it]. Phase 2 [of the offseason program], remember, there’s no contact and there’s no offense versus defense. It’s Phase 3 that you get into that. … He’s in a position where he can do everything, I think.”

Since becoming the team’s full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes has missed five games due to injury and eight in total (rest). The Chiefs are 2-6 in those games and averaging just 14.6 points per game in them, compared to 27.7 PPG with Mahomes. That 13.1-point decrease is the second-largest by a team without its starting QB since 1950 (minimum five games missed).

During the offseason, the Chiefs traded for Fields and drafted LSU’s Nussmeier in the seventh round of the draft to compete with Oladokun for Kansas City’s backup spot, and obviously the Week 1 gig if things don’t quite stay on schedule for No. 15. It would be pretty shocking if that winner isn’t Fields considering he has 53 career NFL starts and Oladokun two (losing both in 2025).

FanDuel lists Mahomes as the -720 favorite as the Week 1 guy, which equates to an 87.8% chance, with Fields at +500 and any other QB at +3500. If it’s the latter, then something clearly went really wrong for the Chiefs. That their win total is set at Over/Under 10.5 also seems to hint at Mahomes being ready. He is +1100 for a third MVP.

“He’s way ahead of schedule … we’re in a really good place right now,” GM Brett Veach told the media on May 1. 

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