It's West Ham or Spurs - how relegation fight is shaping up

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Who do Spurs and West Ham play next?

With Leeds, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest all securing their place in the top flight following last weekend’s results, Tottenham and West Ham know time is running out to avoid the drop.

The odds are in Spurs’ favour.

According to the Opta supercomputer, they have a 19.5% chance of relegation, compared to 80.5% for Nuno’s Hammers.

West Ham take on Newcastle United at St James’ Park this Sunday, two days before Spurs play next, at Chelsea.

If West Ham can win at Newcastle – they beat the Magpies 3-1 at home in the league in November – then they will jump to 17th and push Spurs into the relegation zone by one point.

Anything other than a Hammers win, though, would hand the advantage back to Tottenham – who could then ensure their safety by winning at Chelsea.

The chances of Spurs picking up a win at Stamford Bridge, however, might be slim, as they have managed it just once since 1990, with a 3-1 victory in April 2018.

If the battle does go down to the wire on 24 May, both teams have home games, with Tottenham welcoming Everton and West Ham facing Leeds.

‘Spurs still in relegation driving seat’

Chris Cowlin

Tottenham fan

The draw with Leeds felt like an opportunity missed. I felt like we deserve to win, but we just weren’t clinical in front of goal.

However, we are still in the driving seat, and we need a minimum of four points to stay in the Premier League.

I feel confident [Tottenham can stay up] because in the past four games, we’ve picked up eight points – two wins and two draws – and there is a real belief and confidence under Roberto de Zerbi.

But one of the remaining games is Chelsea at Stamford Bridge – and we’ve only won there once in 36 years, so that’s going to be tough.

I’m glad De Zerbi came in when he did; it was certainly a waste of time with [former interim head coach] Igor Tudor, his 44-day stint.

But De Zerbi seems to be getting a tune out of these players, so I live in hope.

We’re going to now watch West Ham travel to Newcastle, and hopefully they don’t pick any points up there, then Spurs need to just go and get a result at Chelsea.

‘Tense final day if West Ham beat Newcastle’

James Jones

West Ham fan writer

It was hard not to feel defeated after West Ham’s controversial home loss to Arsenal on Sunday.

But Spurs’ draw with Leeds means there’s still a lot of hope that the great escape is on in east London.

If it does go down to the final day, then it’s hard to look past West Ham winning. With just one loss from their past seven home games (W3, D3), the fans in a similar voice as they were against the Gunners on Sunday and Leeds having nothing to play for, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will be clear favourites.

If the gap is still two points, then of course West Ham will need former boss David Moyes to do them a favour by beating Spurs away with Everton. A draw won’t do because West Ham’s goal difference is considerably worse. But an Everton win isn’t entirely out of the question, given they’ll probably need a victory for a chance of qualifying for Europe, while Spurs have just two home wins to their name all season.

Ideally, West Ham will have their destiny in their hands on the final day, without needing Everton to get something at Spurs. If that’s how it’s set up, I back us to get the job done. If not, having to rely on results elsewhere is far from ideal.

Either way, this coming weekend is absolutely huge. West Ham could be relegated by Monday night, or they could be 90 minutes from Premier League survival.

I’m not sure my heart can take any more.

‘Recent form tells two different stories’

Prudent Nsengiyumva

BBC Sport journalist

With two games left, the relegation fight between Tottenham and West Ham is on a knife edge – and their recent form tells two very different stories.

Tottenham have somewhat steadied themselves under Roberto de Zerbi. They are four games unbeaten (W2 D2), their longest run without defeat this season, and one that reflects a side finally showing some resilience after months of turbulence.

Their last unbeaten run of five matches came in December and January, a period that seems a long time ago now.

Momentum has rarely been Spurs’ friend this year, but avoiding defeat at this stage is no small thing.

West Ham, by contrast, are sliding at the worst possible moment. Defeat at Newcastle would make it three losses on the bounce, something that has already happened twice under Nuno Espirito Santo – once in October and again in December.

When results dip, they tend to dip quickly, and the Hammers’ season has been punctuated by damaging spells that have dragged them back into trouble.

Spurs still have their fate in their own hands, while West Ham’s margin for error is shrinking fast. Over the next two defining games, survival may hinge on who holds their nerve.

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