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Perhaps the most interesting matchup on Thursday’s MLB slate is Phillies at Red Sox because Boston lefty Ranger Suarez goes against his former Philadelphia team for the first time in his nine-season career. And Suarez faces the guy who essentially replaced him in the rotation in southpaw Jesus Luzardo. It’s a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch from Fenway in the series finale, weather permitting. 

Phillies-Red Sox DraftKings parlay (-115)

  • Red Sox +1.5
  • Alt Under 10.5

The Phillies signed Suarez for just $25,000 back when he was a 16-year-old in Venezuela. He proved to be a great investment, as he spent 13 years with the organization and became a rotation regular in 2021. Suarez recorded a 3.38 ERA in 187 regular-season games and shined in 11 total playoff appearances at 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA spanning 42.2 innings.

Suarez became a fan and clubhouse favorite, and a giant photo of him hugging catcher J.T. Realmuto after registering the final out of the 2022 NLCS still hangs prominently in the Phillies’ home clubhouse. Players on the club reportedly FaceTimed him from the clubhouse just a couple of weeks ago. “I love you guys. I miss you guys. See you soon,” Suarez told his ex-teammates, per NBC Sports Philadelphia.

But baseball is a business, and even the big-market Phillies have limits so they never much tried to re-sign Suarez this past winter, only slapping the qualifying offer on him. Suarez rejected that and signed a five-year, $130 million deal with Boston. That was considered a pivot move after the Red Sox failed to re-sign their own free agent in third baseman Alex Bregman.

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Because Suarez turned down the $22,025,000 qualifying offer from Philadelphia in November, Boston gave up its second- and fifth-highest selections in July’s amateur draft and forfeited $1 million in international signing bonus allocation in 2027. Philadelphia got an extra pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft as compensation.

Suarez has been quite good for the Sox so far at 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in seven starts but hasn’t gone since throwing four shutout innings vs. Houston on May 3. He left due to right hamstring tightness but simply had one start skipped. Suarez has been knocked around a bit in his first two starts, perhaps trying to justify that big contract, but has not allowed a run in four of five outings since, with a 1.17 ERA over that stretch.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Suarez at 5.5 innings pitched, 5.3 strikeouts, 5.4 hits allowed and 2.0 earned runs tonight. While he has never faced the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber (0-for-5, two Ks) and Trea Turner (3-for-10, two doubles) saw him while with other clubs.

“It’s hard,” mentioned Phillies All-Star catcher JT Realmuto of facing a guy he caught for years but hasn’t seen as a batter officially. “You can’t really overthink it and try to guess what he’s going to do because he’s probably not going to do what I think he might. So the last thing I want to do is go up there and try to think about what he’s gonna throw me.”

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The Phillies were essentially thinking of an eventual Suarez replacement when they acquired the younger Luzardo from the Marlins in December 2024. And a couple of months after Suarez signed his deal this past offseason with Boston, the Phillies locked up Luzardo to a nearly identical five-year, $135 million extension to keep him from free agency after this season.

Luzardo has had it rough at times this year, sitting at 3-3 with a 5.98 ERA, but nearly all his trouble has come at home (1-3, 8.65 ERA) rather than away (2-0, 2.00 ERA). He always has been one of those wildly inconsistent guys due to control. Last Friday vs. Colorado, Luzardo took 95 pitches to complete only three innings after failing to record an out in the fourth (three walks).

Those were the most pitches by any MLB player without completing at least three full since 2022. That followed back-to-back terrific starts where Luzardo had surrendered just two earned runs over 13.3 innings with 18 strikeouts and zero walks. Prior to that, he was 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA through his first five outings of 2026.

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Note that the weather does not look great in Boston tonight, with rain and winds blowing in, but being as it’s Philly’s last visit of the season to the city, they will do everything to play it. Hard to see many runs scored in that mess, though. I’m being overly cautious on 10.5. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.