There are 14 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, May 18 and that means plenty of options for those interested in MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting. Plenty of the top scoring teams in the league are in action such as the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Cubs but before you lock in your picks for Monday, you need to see what SportsLine expert Angelo Magliocca is looking at for his best home run plays of the day.
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Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best Home Run picks for Monday
- Ian Happ (+330)
- Michael Busch (+360)
- Kazuma Okamoto (+410)
Ian Happ (+330) and Michael Busch (+360), Cubs
Four of the 16 hits that Brandon Sproat has allowed against left-handed batters across 15 innings thus far have left the yard, and his home run to fly ball rate is sitting at nearly 20% over 30+ innings. The sample size here is starting to get large enough that the HR/FB rate looks gaudy and real, so I’m going to attack him here with a couple slugging lefties in a spot where the weather in Wrigley Field makes for the best hitting conditions on today’s slate of games.
Sproat has allowed opponents to barrel him up at a 9.8% rate, his hard-hit rate is 42.7% and his xwOBA is .352, none of which are great for a young starter who has struggled with command all season. I side with the Cubs here at home and am betting on a couple of their left handed bats to get them the runs needed off of Sproat. The bullpen for Milwaukee doesn’t give us a good matchup so we’ll really need to get it done off Sproat.
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Kazuma Okamoto (+410), Blue Jays
Okamoto has posted a 15.7% barrel rate thus far, along with a 53.7% hard-hit rate and 93.1 mph average exit velocity. He currently leads all third basemen in home runs and RBI while ranking fifth in wRC+ at 128. Ryan Weathers has allowed six home runs in 36 innings to right handed batters and even though Okamoto has been better for power against righties, I like the matchup here.
Furthermore, he will get the full nine at-bats being on the away team and the Yankees bullpen has been reeling after all the recent losses and blown lead late yesterday. Okamoto will see righties out of the bullpen for sure and if not, I still think he’s better than just one home run against lefties so far. Mixed with the troubles that Weathers has had against righties and playing in Yankee Stadium with warm weather, I like this spot.
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