villa.jpg
Imagn Images

SC Freiburg of the German Bundesliga and the English Premier League’s Aston Villa face off Wednesday in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League final at Besiktas Park in Istanbul, Turkey. Villa are fourth in the English Premier League table and are in line for a spot in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League, while Freiburg finished seventh in the Bundesliga standings. The Germans edged Portugal’s SC Braga 4-3 on aggregate in the semifinals, while the Villans cruised past fellow EPL side Nottingham Forest 4-1 over its two-leg semifinal.      

Kickoff for the Europa League final is set for 3 p.m. ET and soccer fans can watch all the action live on Paramount+. Villa are -150 favorites (wager $150 to win $100) in the recent Freiburg vs. Aston Villa odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Freiburg are +425 (wager $100 to win $425) on the 90-minute money line. A draw is priced at +295 and the total for match goals is 2.5 (Over +100, Under -125).

Wager on Freiburg vs. Aston Villa with the recent DraftKings promo code for a great offer.

In soccer money line betting, only a draw wager pays out if there’s no winner after 90 minutes, and there’s also prop betting and parlay betting available. Before locking in your wagers for Wednesday’s Europa League final, you need to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green is betting for Villa vs. Freiburg.

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.    

Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Freiburg vs. Aston Villa in Wednesday’s final.

Freiburg vs. Aston Villa best bets

  • Aston Villa to win and Over 1.5 goals +110 (1 unit)
  • Ollie Watkins to score +155 (0.5 units)

Aston Villa should be too strong for Freiburg when the teams meet in the Europa League final on Wednesday.

Unai Emery’s men warmed up for this game by beating Liverpool 4-2 in a crucial Premier League game at the weekend. Ollie Watkins scored twice, and goals from Morgan Rogers and John McGinn wrapped up a morale-boosting win for Villa. 

That result left them fourth in the Premier League table, which means they’re guaranteed to qualify for next season’s Champions League. They can now focus 100% on winning the Europa League, and their superior quality should shine through in this game.

A gulf in financial firepower

Freiburg finished seventh in the Bundesliga with 13 wins, eight draws and 13 defeats from 34 games this season. The Premier League is a much stronger league, so you’d expect the fourth-best team in England to beat the seventh-best team in Germany. The sportsbooks agree, as they make Aston Villa the -145 favorite to win this game. You can find +450 on Freiburg winning, which gives them an 18.2% implied chance of success. 

That’s pretty slim, but it reflects the gulf in financial firepower between these clubs. Aston Villa’s annual wage bill of $177,245,055 dwarfs Freiburg’s $66,355,086. Freiburg’s record signing cost around $12 million, while Aston Villa have bought 45 players for a larger fee than that. The current Aston Villa squad is worth $637 million, according to Transfermarkt, whereas Freiburg’s is worth $222 million.

Of course, money isn’t everything, but it does allow Aston Villa to sign higher-quality players than Freiburg. They’re currently missing two of their best midfielders, Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara, but they should still have enough quality to beat Freiburg.

Rogers has returned to form at the perfect time, as he played a starring role in Villa’s 4-2 win against Liverpool at the weekend. Watkins has scored four goals in his last three games, while McGinn also looks back to his best after returning from injury. He scored twice as Villa thumped Nottingham Forest 4-0 in the second leg of their Europa League semifinal clash on May 7. Emiliano Buendia also looks sharp right now, so Villa will be formidable in attack on Wednesday.

They clearly miss Kamara in midfield, but the defense is pretty robust, led by Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres, while World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez relishes occasions like this.

Use the recent bet365 bonus code when wagering on Wednesday’s Europa League final.

Freiburg’s defensive record is concerning

This will be Freiburg’s first European final. They lost 2-1 to Braga in the first leg of their semifinal showdown, but Braga then had a player sent off in the seventh minute of the second leg.

Freiburg ended up winning that game 3-1, so they wrapped up a 4-3 aggregate victory. Right-back Lukas Kübler scored twice, but the match will be best remembered for Johan Manzambi‘s stunning strike. The Freiburg playmaker has been in fine form in recent weeks, and he could be in line for a big-money move to a major European club this summer.

The spine of the team looks strong, featuring veteran defender Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart and Nicolas Höfler, while captain Vincenzo Grifo is dangerous on the left flank. Freiburg have already beaten FC Basel, Utrecht, Nice, RB Salzburg, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Genk, and Celta Vigo in the Europa League, so they’re not to be taken lightly. However, their defensive record is concerning.

They conceded 57 goals in just 34 Bundesliga games this season and tend to struggle against elite forwards. They let in 2.33 goals per game against the teams that finished above them in the Bundesliga table — including a 6-2 defeat to Bayern Munich and a 4-0 loss to Borussia Dortmund — which doesn’t bode well for this clash with Villa in Istanbul.

It could be an entertaining game, as Villa’s defense isn’t exactly water tight either, but the likes of Rogers, Watkins, McGinn, and Buendia should ultimately fire their team to victory.

Tail Martin Green’s Europa League final picks using the recent Caesars Sportsbook promo code.