100 Days Out: College football storylines, predictions, names to know heading into 2026 season
Let’s celebrate that we are 100 days away from the kickoff of the 2026 college football schedule
By
Chip Patterson
May 21, 2026
at
9:00 am ET
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32 min read
Ted Hyman/CBS Sports
In a tradition that stretches back to 2014, it is our pleasure here at CBS Sports to celebrate a landmark of the college football offseason with a comprehensive collection of stories, predictions, burning questions, names and games to note for the upcoming season. This 100-Day Countdown is a checkpoint that lets us know that soon we will be listening to coaches at media days, making our win totals predictions and turning our attention to fall camp. Spring practice is in the books, we have already re-ranked the full FBS landscape with a new CBS Sports 138, and now it’s time to dive into the nitty-gritty.
Our 100-Day countdown looks ahead to Week Zero, which features six FBS games and seven power conference teams in action, including an ACC showdown in Brazil between Virginia and NC State and a Bill Belichick-Sonny Dykes rematch overseas in Ireland. We will also get to see Lincoln Riley’s USC squad kickstart a pivotal Year 5 with returning starting quarterback Jayden Maiava and a pair of potential playoff party crashers squaring off when Memphis visits UNLV. So while Week Zero will not feature every team in action like Week 1, the games still count, and there is enough compelling material to declare it the kickoff of our 2026 season.
So let’s get it started with storylines, followed by bold predictions, burning questions and more, looking ahead to the upcoming college football season.
Prominent storylines
1. Lane Kiffin and LSU as college football’s lightning rod for 2026
There are now 138 head coaches and tens of thousands of individuals represented among the players, assistants and staffers at the FBS level of college football, but there is only one Lane Kiffin. Perhaps we should have known that the entire sport was in the palm of his hand when the flight patterns of his private jet were being revealed as though we were living a LeBron James free agency summer with Lane’s decisions between Ole Miss, Florida and LSU. The decision to leave the Rebels for a bitter conference rival is a touchstone event in SEC lore that will live on for decades, but it’s also a national college football story because of Lane Kiffin as a character and the proven potential for LSU’s ceiling with talent. After bemoaning the cost of buyouts as bad business, LSU gifted Kiffin with a lucrative contract and then spent millions to assemble the No. 1 transfer portal class in the country. Kiffin also poached some of the top coaches and players from Ole Miss, bringing the transactional nature of the sport to Front Street for fans who might yearn for the sport’s more relationship-based past.
Lane Kiffin has always been a main character in college football, and LSU has been a fixture of the sport’s national ascension in the 21st century; the marriage of the two has also included brazen examples of how much the sport has changed. If you’ve got tens of millions of dollars and a program that is one of the “haves” in college football, you too can rework your entire outlook in a single offseason.
When Kiffin departed Tennessee for USC after just one season in 2009, the hatred from Knoxville was palpable for years and re-ignited in the form of a mustard bottle and other debris more than a decade later. But he took over a program in the midst of NCAA sanctions and certainly did not have the ability to construct a roster as he has at LSU. The Trojans were somewhat off the national radar, so the chaos created by the job jump dissipated over time before he was unceremoniously fired five games into his fourth season in 2013. At LSU, Kiffin has one of the most talented rosters in the country, and the expectations are that the Tigers will compete for a College Football Playoff spot immediately. There’s nothing “off the radar” about any of Kiffin’s 2026 outlook, because every outcome will be a referendum on everyone involved. Week 1 opens at home against Clemson in one of the biggest games of Labor Day weekend, and the regular season will be highlighted by visits to vengeful former employers (Ole Miss on Sept. 19, Tennessee on Nov. 21) and home games in Baton Rouge against other playoff contenders (Alabama and Texas in back-to-back weeks in November).
If you got worn out by non-stop Kiffin talk throughout his lengthy courting process, prepare yourself for even higher doses of Kiffin Mania when it comes to judging his debut season on the biggest stages at the end of the year. The thin line between success and failure will be drawn when the bracket is set in December, and once the games start this fall, the pomp will flip to pressure as college football’s star boy seeks to fulfill the wildest dreams of an LSU fan base that expects a return on its investment.
2. How Indiana backs up its sport-shaking ascent to the top of college football
Part of the context for those aforementioned Lane Kiffin expectations is what Curt Cignetti has accomplished at Indiana over the last two seasons. The Hoosiers’ position as one of the least successful power conference programs in college football was well-documented as Cignetti turned a three-win team into a College Football Playoff team in 2024, but the 16-0 run through a tougher path on the way to a national championship in 2025 truly solidified this tale as an all-timer. So, after losing the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick at quarterback, along with numerous other key pieces from the success of the last two seasons, will Indiana regress or reload?
One thing undersold during Cignetti’s first season in the Big Ten that has since been highlighted is how Indiana activated its massive fan base to capitalize on the new financial realities of college football. Cignetti arrived with a large collection of players from James Madison, and also added key pieces from the transfer portal who proved to be perfect fits for their program. The on-field success certainly raised the Hoosiers’ recruiting acumen, but there has also been an intentionality in the kinds of players Cignetti and his staff want to bring into the fold. Indiana has money to spend, but it’s not going to get caught in a bidding war for highly rated players who don’t align with its evaluation of them as a good fit. Indiana’s first transfer class under Cignetti ranked 30th with 31 players; the second ranked 25th with 23 players. As the Hoosiers were beginning their preparation for a title run, they were also cleaning up in the portal during this past offseason, signing a class that ranks 8th with just 17 players.
The number of players needed is going down, and the quality of players is going up because Indiana no longer needs to rebuild. This is a re-loading situation akin to the days of the four-team playoff era, when five teams combined for 29 of the 40 available spots in the bracket. For a decade, it was nearly a guarantee that some combination of Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State would have a seat at the table competing for the title. Indiana is a team of that caliber for this era, so yes, the expectation is the Hoosiers will be back in the College Football Playoff for a third straight season.
Whether Indiana can remain atop the college football world will serve as a prominent storyline in 2026.
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3. Ohio State and Texas fell short of expectations, but will start the year in the spotlight again
There is a notion that expanding from 12 to 24 teams will cheapen the regular season of college football, but Ohio State’s 2025 season might prove that we’ve already stripped some lasting meaning from the weeks between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. Ohio State was a monster last season, going 12-0 as they beat teams by 29.2 points per game behind a defense that only allowed more than 14 points once (16 points to Illinois) and with a quarterback who was a Heisman Trophy finalist after flirting with the NCAA single-season completion percentage record. Even more, the Buckeyes snapped their losing streak to Michigan with a boa constrictor-like suffocation of the Wolverines in the Big House at the end of the year. Everything from the 12-game regular season experience for Ohio State was an undeniable success, yet the lingering feeling when Ryan Day and the Buckeyes walked off the field for the final time in 2025-26 was stinging disappointment. Because while 12-0 will always be a goal in Columbus, the current postseason structure we already have in place puts more weight on what happens in game 13 and beyond. At Ohio State, that 0-2 postseason record, a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and a 24-14 loss to Miami in the College Football Playoff, seems heavier than any success prior to December. The 2026 season for Ohio State, with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith leading the revenge tour, will be all about positioning for the playoff and eventually pursuing the postseason success that was absent from last year’s campaign.
Part of that positioning includes another massive showdown against Texas.
Last year opened with Ohio State riding that defensive excellence to grind out a 14-7 win against the Longhorns in Columbus. This year, the game will be in Week 2, in Austin, against a Texas team that has surrounded Arch Manning with loads of skill-position talent to gain an edge on Ohio State and the top SEC defenses standing in their way. The Longhorns’ disappointment came before the postseason, as a 9-3 record was not good enough to contend for the College Football Playoff, and a Cheez-It Bowl win against Michigan was empty calories for a team good enough to compete against the best. Texas beat two CFP teams last year by double-digits (Oklahoma and Texas A&M), so the storylines and pressure for the 2026 campaign start with getting revenge against Ohio State and flipping the result that could have propelled Steve Sarkisian’s program back into the playoff.
The all-in approach to the transfer portal and buzz for the season also reflects the understanding that Texas has one more year with Manning, who is expected to finally cash in on that NFL Draft expectation in April 2027. An early enrollee back in January 2023, Manning has spent four years writing the early chapters of his own football legacy. He wowed in spring games and spot starts while playing backup to Quinn Ewers, then found himself under scrutiny early as a starter before finishing 2025 as a solid power conference quarterback. Manning’s 26 passing touchdowns to seven interceptions was the 20th-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the country, but his passer rating (144.9) and completion percentage (61.4%) were both outside the top 40. The athleticism was certainly a weapon (10 rushing touchdowns), but there’s another level of dominance that fans are looking for out of a player who arrived in college with a nearly-perfect prospect rating, not to mention his last name. Manning’s last dance with Texas tunes up nicely with Ohio State’s bounce-back effort, since their intertwined redemption storylines will collide in Week 2 and continue throughout the season.
4. Notre Dame’s narrow margin between success and failure
The Fighting Irish will almost certainly begin the season as a top 10 team in college football, marking the sixth time in the last seven seasons that the program has started the year inside the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll. But this season is different because expectations for how Notre Dame stacks up against its competition on the schedule and in the sport are as high as they have been in 20 years. Marcus Freeman has built a modern power in South Bend, and while the scars of last season’s College Football Playoff snub will be a narrative through the year, it will only add to the pressure for the 2026 team to be in the mix for a national championship. Notre Dame checked in solidly at No. 4 in our post-spring CBS Sports 138, and if that’s mirrored by the AP voters in August, it will be the highest preseason ranking for the program since being No. 2 at the start of the 2006 season. Notre Dame has frequently gotten the benefit of the doubt throughout the 21st century as one of the better teams in college football, but to be considered among the very best has required earning it on the field during the season.
In 2026, this team will begin the year in the VIP section, but what will make it truly fascinating is how little room for error it will have because of its strength of schedule. The oddsmakers have set Notre Dame’s over-under win total at a preposterous 11.5, with the market indicating the most likely outcomes are either an 11-1 or 12-0 record. This is a schedule that includes Miami, BYU and SMU, all teams that have been in the College Football Playoff and/or conference championship games in the last two years, and yet the professional expectation is that maybe one of those three (or an underdog dark horse) could take down one of the best Notre Dame teams of the last 20 years. That’s the razor-thin margin we are looking at for Marcus Freeman this fall, because while Notre Dame will begin to enjoy a qualification advantage of making the CFP by finishing in the top 12, there is no guarantee that 10-2 will be good enough to finish inside the top 12 of the committee rankings. It’s almost a throwback scenario for one of college football’s oldest and strongest brands, because just like in 1966, 1973, 1977 or 1988, the Fighting Irish can only afford one regular-season slip-up to feel good about accomplishing its goals in 2026.
5. CFP expansion and college sports reform
It brings me no joy to include this storyline, as usually we look to make this annual feature a focus on the on-field reasons to get excited. College Football Playoff expansion and the arduous task of reforming college sports as a whole for a changing future are not exciting at all, but they will be among the dominant conversations around college football throughout the 2026 season. While teams battle for spots in the 12-team playoff format, the conference commissioners and university presidents will continue to evaluate how to adjust the calendar for a potential 16-team or 24-team bracket in the future. Those conversations go hand in hand with an eye on any future realignment, media rights deals and a potential reworking of the NCAA’s involvement in football. We will soon be moving from the “no bad ideas” brainstorming portion of the proceedings to actually implementing changes and reaching consensus, which will certainly be met with resistance on every side. Our job today is to get you excited for the upcoming season, so we will turn the attention back to the field. But if we are assessing the biggest topics in the sport right now, it is impossible to ignore the storm brewing over the future of college football.
Burning questions
6. Is Penn State better off with Matt Campbell? In a little more than 11 seasons as Penn State’s head coach, James Franklin compiled 104 wins, finished in the top 10 five times and in 2024 was a few plays away from playing for a national championship. But after a season packed with anticipation and high hopes fell flat, he was fired in mid-October, and the Nittany Lions waited 58 days before introducing Iowa State’s Matt Campbell as the school’s new football coach. The search took many turns and tied in enough names to spark millions in contract extensions, but it left us wondering whether Penn State is in a better position now after making the change. Perhaps changing the voice in the room and re-arranging the house will have Penn State renewed with the same kind of energy that powered Franklin’s ascent to winning the Big Ten in Year 3 on the job. But as Franklin himself feels renewed with a new opportunity nearby at Virginia Tech, Penn State will be looking for reasons to believe that it’s in a better place now with Campbell at the helm.
7. After Miami’s success, how long will it take Florida State and Clemson to bounce back? A combined 14 of the 15 ACC Championships between 2011 and 2024 were won by either Clemson (9) or Florida State (5), yet the conference in 2026 very clearly runs through Miami, which has yet to win its first conference title as a league member. It’s a strange set of circumstances in the ACC: finally having Miami running close to peak efficiency, only for it to happen as arguably the two top football brands experience differing levels of disappointment. For Clemson, the situation is noticeably less dire, as the program pursues the big wins needed (like the season opener at LSU) to reclaim a place at the table. But while Clemson wrestles with the discomfort of finishing outside the top 25 for the first time since 2010 after going 7-6, Florida State has just seven wins total across the last two seasons combined with Mike Norvell. The highs and lows of the last three years have been dizzying for the Seminoles, and right now it’s tough to tell if this is a program that’s just a half-step away from returning to greatness (which is how it looked in the wake of beating Alabama and last season’s strong start) or a distressed asset in need of total overhaul.
Will Mike Norvell and Dabo Swinney be able to resurrect their respective programs in the 2026 season?
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8. Can Oregon maintain its dominance after losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs? Dan Lanning’s body of work as a head coach points to the perfect union of a coach and program in Eugene. Oregon’s rise as a 21st-century power under Chip Kelly showed the university how to carve out its spot in the competitive college football ecosystem, and Lanning’s multiple stops as an assistant informed the kind of program he wanted to run when he got the chance. Lanning has totaled 48 wins in four years, and perhaps most impressively, made a splash in the Big Ten with a conference title in 2024 and a 17-1 league record over the last two seasons. Oregon will start the year as a top-five team thanks to its recent success and the return of star quarterback Dante Moore, but its consistency will be tested by the departures of offensive coordinator Will Stein and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi after both took head coaching jobs elsewhere in the offseason. It’s not the first time Lanning has had to replace a coordinator (Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham was Oregon’s offensive coordinator for one season in 2022), but it is a major disruption to the organizational structure that has successfully led the program’s evolution into a Big Ten title contender. Continuity, perhaps, was a driving factor in Lanning’s decision to promote from within for both roles, elevating Chris Hampton on defense and Drew Mehringer on offense. Lanning spoke glowingly of the opportunities ahead for all four coaches, but he certainly knows that his personnel decision will be a pivotal one in a key season as the Ducks seek to advance past the College Football Playoff semifinals for the first time since 2014.
9. What’s the outlook for Texas Tech’s quarterback room? There was news on this topic earlier this week, as Brendan Sorsby filed an injunction against the NCAA seeking eligibility for the 2026 season. The NCAA released its own statement firmly supporting its rules on gambling and the reinstatement process, so the legal battle has begun to determine whether Sorsby will be able to play for Texas Tech in any capacity this fall. Important deadlines include the NFL Supplemental Draft in late June, as well as the opening of Texas Tech’s fall camp and season, which is expected to begin without backup quarterback Will Hammond, who is not fully cleared to play as he returns from a knee injury. Hammond was very effective as a backup to Behren Morton before suffering an injury last season, and Texas Tech’s coaching staff has been committed to a future outlook with the young redshirt sophomore as part of the puzzle. Sorsby’s eligibility concerns in the wake of gambling allegations sped up the urgency for Hammond’s return, which reportedly could come in Week 3 for the conference opener. But for Texas Tech, the favorite in the Big 12 and a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, the positional depth at quarterback will come down to the court system, modern medicine and a transfer from Tulsa named Kirk Francis.
Bold Predictions
10. Georgia’s pass rush will return to form in 2026. This one isn’t going to grade very high on the Scoville scale for spiciness, but it does offer an opportunity to highlight a key piece of predicting how things will play out this year in Athens. Georgia’s back-to-back national championships were powered by a run of certified dudes in the defensive front that could stuff the run and get after the passer with a relentlessness that mirrored some of the most elite Alabama defenses when Kirby Smart was a coordinator under Nick Saban. The Bulldogs have still been putting players in the NFL on defense (three Day 2 picks this past draft), but the pass rush production took a startling tumble in 2025. Last season, the average FBS team totaled 26.6 sacks with a 6.3% sack rate and a 32.8% pressure rate, which is the percentage of opponent drop-backs that end with a recorded quarterback pressure (per PFF). Georgia was not only below the FBS average in all three categories, but checked in at 107th in sacks (20.0), 123rd in sack percentage (4.2%) and 113th in pressure rate (29.2%). And yet that team, with a sub-100 pass rush, still won 12 games and knocked off playoff-bound Alabama in the SEC Championship Game! But as Trinidad Chambliss danced around Georgia defenders in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, the team’s fatal flaw brought finality to the campaign for another title push. Georgia chose to invest in its current roster this offseason to make retention a strength, and, with player development, that should lead to better production in disrupting opposing quarterbacks.
11. Keelon Russell will be the SEC’s best quarterback. On the Cover 3 Podcast, we have debated whether Keelon Russell or Austin Mack will be the starting quarterback for Alabama this fall, but I’m willing to go one step further and declare him a real threat as QB1, not just in Tuscaloosa but across the entire Southeastern Conference. The reasons for siding with Mack are fair because his relationship with the staff extends back to his time at Washington, and any commentary about the quarterback battle has emphasized the value of the player who can avoid negative plays, such as turnovers and other mistakes. In that sense, I get why Mack would appear like a safer option. But while Mack was dealing with a few nagging injuries that kept him somewhat limited in the spring game, Russell showed a lot of the reasons why he was a five-star prospect coming out of high school with a Jayden Daniels player comp and a 42-2 record as a starter at the 6A Texas powerhouse Duncanville High School. There is an electricity factor that powers Russell’s ceiling, and if he’s guiding the offense, he could surge past the likes of Arch, Trinidad, Gunner and the rest of the contenders for QB1 in the SEC.
12. North Dakota State will contend for a Mountain West title in Year 1 of FBS membership. Okay, now we’re getting extra bold because this not only requires on-field success for the Bison this fall, but also some NCAA legislative wins for one of the newest additions to the FBS. Earlier this month, it was revealed that the NCAA Football Oversight Committee advanced legislation to eliminate the two-year postseason probationary period for teams making the jump from FCS to FBS. The measure must be voted on by the Division I Cabinet next month to take effect for the fall, but if it passes, one of the most celebrated FCS football dynasties will become eligible to compete in the postseason immediately. If the Mountain West follows suit and allows North Dakota State, with a favorable NCAA vote, to compete for the conference title, then New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii will suddenly have their hands full with a team that is built out with proven experience along both lines of scrimmage and has gone 26-3 across the last three seasons. Veteran backup quarterback Nathan Hayes is ready to take over for the recently drafted Cole Payton as the next great QB1 in Fargo, and with their consistency up front, it’s hard to count out NDSU as a team that could quickly jump into that G6 race and the CFP picture.
13. Jayden Maiava wins the Heisman Trophy. We’re admittedly borrowing this one from Tom Fornelli because when he presented the possibilities, it became clear that Maiava is being mis-priced in the market and overlooked by the experts as a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. The USC quarterback is in his third season with Lincoln Riley after transferring from UNLV in Jan. 2024 and spending most of his first season as Miller Moss’ backup. A strong finish to 2024 sent Moss to the portal and opened the door for a successful first full year as the Trojans’ starter, which saw him lead the Big Ten in passing yards (3,711) and finish 12th nationally in passer rating (157.8). With 10 interceptions on the season and a 65.8% completion percentage, there are clear areas for improvement, but obvious talent has begun to show through in a way that makes player development an easy bet with another year under Lincoln Riley. Improvement alone won’t win over Heisman Trophy voters, but if he can guide USC to College Football Playoff contention, he will be the face of the run after the offensive depth chart has been re-tooled with new skill players while the offensive line returns five starters. A resurgent USC and a Lincoln Riley-coached quarterback are narratives that mainstream voters will gravitate towards, and that’s not represented in his current spot on the odds board.
After a standout debut campaign, a lot is expected from USC QB Jayden Maiava in the 2026 season.
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New faces, new places
Last season’s coaching carousel was heavy on changes among the Group of Six, and while those programs saw some notable changes, many came from power conference schools poaching top coaches from that level. Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and UCLA all hired sitting head coaches from the G6 level, sparking a domino effect on their own coaching carousels as athletic directors scrambled to find replacements. In total, 17 power conference jobs changed hands among the 33 coaching changes in the offseason, with 10 of those coming in the SEC (6) and Big Ten (4) combined.
14. Arkansas: Ryan Silverfield 15. Auburn: Alex Golesh 16. Cal: Tosh Lupoi 17. Coastal Carolina: Ryan Beard 18. Colorado State: Jim Mora 19. UConn: Jason Candle 20. Florida: Jon Sumrall 21. Iowa State: Jimmy Rogers 22. James Madison: Billy Napier 23. Kansas State: Collin Klein 24. Kentucky: Will Stein 25. LSU: Lane Kiffin 26. Memphis: Charles Huff 27. Michigan: Kyle Whittingham 28. Michigan State: Pat Fitzgerald 29. Ole Miss: Pete Golding 30. Missouri State: Casey Woods 31. North Texas: Neal Brown 32. Northern Illinois: Rob Harley 33. Ohio: John Hauser 34. Oklahoma State: Eric Morris 35. Oregon State: JaMarcus Shepard 36. Penn State: Matt Campbell 37. South Florida: Brian Hartline 38. Southern Miss: Blake Anderson 39. Stanford: Tavita Pritchard 40. Toledo: Mike Jacobs 41. Tulane: Will Hall 42. UAB: Alex Mortensen 43. UCLA: Bob Chesney 44. Utah: Morgan Scally 45. Virginia Tech: James Franklin 46. Washington State: Kirby Moore
National championship contenders
Tier 1
We’re going to lean on the national title odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to set some tiers to the national title race, starting with the teams at the top. The first group only includes teams with odds of 25-1 or better. We’ve listed them below with a note on their chances to cash in as national champs at the end of the season.
47. Ohio State (11-2): As mentioned earlier, anything short of a win in the College Football Playoff is a disappointing season for the team that is currently No. 1 in our post-spring CBS Sports 138. They’ve got the talent, coaching and experience to achieve the sport’s highest goals, and all that’s left is execution.
48. Notre Dame (7-1): Marcus Freeman has not so quietly built Notre Dame up into being one of the best teams in the country when it comes to competitive depth. A changing recruiting profile has shifted expectations for success on the field, and the 2026 schedule does not feature many opponents who can compare in terms of weight class.
49. Texas (15-2): Steve Sarkisian made the College Football Playoff in 2023 and 2024 before last season’s disappointing omission, so top billing on the odds board comes as no surprise for a group that’s been knocking on the door of winning it all.
50. Indiana (15-2): Uncertainty at the quarterback position is the only reason to bet against Indiana having a shot at back-to-back in 2026, as there’s something to be reported for Fernando Mendoza’s X-factor quality in the biggest games of the year. But if Josh Hoover can even be Kurtis Rourke’s level of serviceable, the Hoosiers should be back in the bracket with a shot at matching Georgia (2021-22) and Alabama (2011-12) as back-to-back champs in the 21st century.
51. Oregon (8-1): With a 17-1 record against Big Ten opponents in the last two seasons, it’s fair to say Oregon has solidified itself as a top-tier team in one of the sport’s best leagues and with Dante Moore back, the Ducks should be dancing their way to 10+ wins again in 2026. Now, whether they take the next step with big-time playoff wins is yet to be seen, which is why you get 8-1 odds on the proposition.
52. Georgia (17/2): Times are funny when the two-time reigning champions in the mighty SEC are so disregarded when it comes to the national title hunt. Perhaps it’s a 0-2 record in CFP games since their most recent title that has the market spooked, but these odds are longer than those of other coaches and programs with less hardware in the trophy case.
The Dawgs are 0-2 in their last two CFP games. Is Kirby Smart’s squad poised to return to the throne this season?
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53. Miami (12-1): Opponents do not want to see the Hurricanes on a heater in the postseason, but the narrow margins that even got Miami into the playoff still exist as Mario Cristobal and Co. eye another run in 2026. New CFP rules essentially set Miami up needing a top 10 ranking to make the field, so it would be best to take no more than one regular-season loss in conference play.
54. Texas A&M (19-1): The Mike Elko era seems to be defined by making less noise than his SEC counterparts (or previous Aggies coaches) while delivering the results fans have been yearning for since moving to the SEC. Texas A&M’s path back to the playoff is treacherous, but with Marcel Reed back and plenty of talent on the roster, there’s no secret as to the recipe for success.
55. LSU (20-1): This is the ultimate volatility spot. If Lane Kiffin succeeds at the levels that he and LSU are capable of, then the Tigers are mispriced as a national title contender. However, if dozens of transfers and new coaches are not able to gel appropriately under the stresses of an SEC schedule in Baton Rouge, then your 20-1 wager on LSU to win it all will be a donation.
56. Ole Miss (22-1): Though it’s officially his first season as a head coach, what Pete Golding has done that his predecessor Lane Kiffin has not is win games in the College Football Playoff as a head coach. Golding and Trinidad Chambliss sticking with the Rebels will make them heroes in Oxford, but replicating last year’s run against a tougher regular-season schedule will be a challenge.
57. Alabama (22-1): You’ll notice this is the point of the odds board where the market has clearly identified a group of SEC teams that all have similar talent and schedules that include head-to-head games against each other. Alabama’s ceiling is really set by the quarterback battle and whether the Crimson Tide can run the ball effectively in 2026. They are very good everywhere on the depth chart, but the waning production in the run game kept the Tide from achieving more last season.
58. Texas Tech (25-1): A fully loaded Texas Tech roster should be able to strut its way to the College Football Playoff, but this conversation is about winning the national championship. The Red Raiders need a little something extra at the quarterback position to take those next steps in the postseason, and as we mentioned earlier, that’s a big question mark when it comes to Brendan Sorsby’s eligibility.
Tier 2
Our second tier includes the nine teams listed between 27-1 and 100-1, with thoughts on the path or likelihood of one of these dark horses breaking through.
59. Oklahoma (27-1): We could see the Sooners start as a top 10 team in 2026 after making the College Football Playoff last season, but for Brent Venables to get back and have a real shot to win it all, he’s going to need a little bit more balance on offense against the best teams. John Mateer and Isaiah Setagna can only carry so much weight in the biggest games of the season.
60. Michigan (33-1): What Kyle Whittingham needs in Year 1 is for offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Bryce Underwood to find a common language that helps the gifted sophomore unlock a new level of production and consistency. Michigan’s floor is a team that plays great defense and runs the ball effectively, but that might not be enough to make the CFP.
61. USC (35-1): Speaking of common language, Jayden Maiava is in his third season with Lincoln Riley and will be playing behind an offensive line loaded with starting experience. If the offseason addition of Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator pays off, the Trojans could be the dark horse to watch in this long-shot category.
62. Tennessee (50-1): The Vols’ recruiting has produced a couple of young players who could be stars in 2026, and if the defense takes a step forward under Jim Knowles, then we could see Josh Heupel right back in the mix to make the CFP for a second time in three years.
63. Florida (50-1): Jon Sumrall was able to successfully retain key players from last season at Florida while hitting on a few portal additions, and the result is a team that could be favored in as many as 9 or 10 games. Now, winning all of those games to be a title contender is the challenge that has this unproven group slotted so low on the board, but the cupboard is not bare for Sumrall’s first year in Gainesville.
64. Missouri (80-1): There is a level of competitive consistency that Eli Drinkwitz has hit at Missouri that makes it disrespectful to list too many more teams without mentioning the Tigers. However, it’s fair to note that three or more SEC losses (something that has happened in five of the last six seasons) won’t be enough to get in the bracket alongside teams at the top of this list.
65. Washington (80-1): The return of Demond Williams Jr. after a brief flirtation with the transfer portal sets up the Huskies as one of the most fascinating case studies of player movement in the modern era. That doesn’t mean they’ll be great, but it does make the team interesting! If Williams has rebuilt trust and Washington’s player development is clicking, there should be a lot lost despite losing some NFL Draft talent. But the intangibles around Williams and his 2026 outlook are an under-the-radar storyline to follow.
66. Auburn (100-1): Boy, if Alex Golesh steps right in after Hugh Freeze and even gets Auburn to the College Football Playoff, he’s going to have fans on The Plains quickly forgetting about how many times their former coach did or did not play golf. Golesh is a good coach and offers a different perspective on the program, but the charge to the championships might take more than a couple of months.
67. BYU (100-1): If the odds were simply to make the playoff, not win it all, then BYU would get more attention in the wake of Texas Tech’s apparent uncertainty with Brendan Sorsby. Bear Bachmeier should absolutely be more comfortable in his second full season as a starter, and the Cougars have built up the roster under Kalani Sitake to be an annual title contender in the Big 12.
68. Penn State (100-1): Matt Campbell does have the potential to flip things around in Happy Valley by stacking wins against a favorable schedule. A high win count will lead to national rankings and some feeling that order is restored, but title contention will require knocking off the powers at the top of the Big Ten.
Best non-conference games
69. Clemson at LSU (Sept. 5) 70. Baylor vs. Auburn (Sept. 5) 71. Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (Sept. 6) 72. Ohio State at Texas (Sept. 12) 73. Oklahoma at Michigan (Sept. 12) 74. Florida State at Alabama (Sept. 12) 75. Notre Dame at BYU (Oct. 17) 76. Miami at Notre Dame (Nov. 7)
The much-anticipated remtach between Miami and Notre Dame will be a pivotal showdown in November.
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Heisman Trophy contenders
Last season’s winner, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, had 50-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy when we did this exercise last May. The previous year saw Travis Hunter win the award after he carried 65-1 odds around the time of our 100 Day Countdown in 2024. Chalk dominated the day before that as Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams both were in the top eight of the odds board in the offseason, but somewhere in between, we will likely find our winner.
With that recent history charting our path, we have listed everyone on the odds board at 65-1 or better. It serves as a healthy list of preseason A-listers for fans to keep tabs on in the early weeks of the season. Among the players with Travis Hunter preseason odds or better, you’ll find just two non-quarterbacks (Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney), two different Alabama quarterbacks and just one player (LaNorris Sellers) who is not on a team with national title odds of 100-1 or better.
