French Open experts’ picks: Who will win?Can defending champion Coco Gauff win another French Open title? Dan Istitene/Getty ImagesESPN.comMultiple AuthorsMay 24, 2026, 09:44 AM ET
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The French Open kicks off Sunday, with two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz out of the tournament. But No. 1-ranked Jannik Sinner has been breaking records on clay this season, and appears to be the man to beat.
On the women’s side, Coco Gauff won the 2025 French Open title — with Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek all expected to challenge for the title.
We polled our experts for their picks, thoughts on the tournament and best betting tips.
D’Arcy Maine: Simply put: no. Not right now, and not without Alcaraz in the draw.
Sinner is on a dominant streak for the ages. He hasn’t lost a match since February and has claimed a title at five straight tournaments — all stunningly at the Masters 1000 level — for a 29-match win streak. And in that time, he has dropped just three sets. Three sets! Sure, there are some formidable foes in his path — Ben Shelton potentially in the quarters and Daniil Medvedev in the semis, to name a few — but it just seems unlikely that any of them will beat him with such an opportune chance for a career Grand Slam on the line. To quote Alexander Zverev, who lost to Sinner 6-1, 6-2 in the Madrid final, “There’s a big gap between Sinner and everybody else right now.” And that might be putting it mildly.
Bill Connelly: I watched Sergiy Stakhovsky beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon once upon a time, so it definitely can happen. But here’s a complete list of non-Alcaraz players who have beaten Sinner in a best-of-five match since the start of 2024: Daniil Medvedev (Wimbledon 2024) and Novak Djokovic (Australian Open 2026).
The only active non-Alcaraz players to have ever beaten him in best-of-five on clay are Andrey Rublev (2022) and Daniel Altmaier (2023). Some of the rising players who could give him problems — Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar, to name two — haven’t proven that they’re anywhere near ready to break through over five sets. So, it’ll take an absolute “stuff happens” kind of day, or another amazing performance from Djokovic in the finals, for him to go down.
Simon Cambers: The only way it happens is if Sinner gets injured or if cramps hit badly. The hot weather expected for Week 1 opens the possibility, but in pure tennis terms, it won’t happen. Sinner has not lost since Doha, and though he has played a lot, he has such an edge over the field, especially with Alcaraz not playing through injury. All things being equal, he wins it not at full speed, even if there are good players in his path. Good, but not good enough.
Jannik Sinner is ranked No. 1 — and won’t have to play his biggest rival, Carlos Alcaraz, at Roland Garros. Photo by Emmanuele Ciancaglini/Getty ImagesWho will advance to the final from the non-Sinner half of the draw?Maine: In some ways, Novak Djokovic appears to be the likeliest contender — he has won three times at Roland Garros — but he lost his lone match on clay this season and has an incredibly challenging draw with big-hitting French star Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round and, potentially, Joao Fonseca in the third round, two-time finalist Casper Ruud in the fourth round and Zverev, the 2024 runner-up, in the semis.
Logically, Djokovic, who turned 39 on Friday, has no business reaching the final, but we’re talking about Novak Djokovic. Having defeated Sinner at the Australian Open in January, and being well aware this might just be his best remaining chance to win his record-breaking 25th major title, Djokovic will do everything he can to get back to the final — and it might be enough.
Connelly: Djokovic’s draw really is ridiculous and gives him almost no time to play his way into form. He has reached five straight Slam semifinals, and 12 of 14, even as he has slowed his schedule. It’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt. But with a little better draw and pretty good recent form against players not named Sinner, Alexander Zverev probably has the best odds at this point.
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But with the field’s general vulnerability, this wouldn’t be the worst time for a major Slam breakthrough from a youngster such as Fonseca or Rafael Jodar. They’re both in the right half of the bracket for it.
Cambers: Even though he has barely played since reaching the Australian Open final, you still wouldn’t put it past Djokovic getting to another final. He has a tough draw, though, with Fonseca, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud in his quarter, so they’re going to make it difficult for him and potentially leave him with little left at the end. He’s 39, and though he’s superhuman, it’s asking a lot this time.
I think we will see a massive tournament from Jodar, another Spanish Rafa, who has burst onto the scene this year, winning Marrakech and reaching the semis in Barcelona and quarters in Madrid and Rome. He might run out of steam, but he’s the same age as the other Rafa when he won his first Roland Garros. He couldn’t, could he? If not, then I’d pick Ruud.
Maine: Defending a major title is tough, and something Gauff couldn’t do at the US Open after winning her first Slam title there. However, she arrives in Paris with some serious momentum, having reached the Italian Open final, just as she did in 2025, and having won some tightly contested, three-set matches over quality players such as Mirra Andreeva and Iva Jovic in Rome.
Her road back to the final could be tricky — with Sabalenka likely waiting in the semifinals — but with no player as the clear favorite on the women’s side and all of the top-ranked players playing somewhat inconsistently on the surface at the moment, Gauff has nearly as good a chance as anyone to win the trophy. She so often finds a way to win even when she’s not playing her best, so why not?
Connelly: With Swiatek searching for confidence and Sabalenka losing earlier than expected in her only two clay-court events (and dealing with some physical ailments), it feels as if Gauff is better positioned to win this year than she was last year. Her draw isn’t easy — Taylor Townsend in the first round, an in-form Anastasia Potapova in the third — but it’s manageable with the way she has played of late. There’s no favorite in this tournament, but she has to be one of the three or four co-favorites.
Cambers: I think she has a really good chance. Despite the fact that she has not been as consistent as she’d like in the build-up to Roland Garros and her forehand and serve can still be shaky on occasion, she showed in Rome that her game is not far off, while her fighting qualities remain unmatched. She’ll love the heat if it stays, and she’s in a good section of the draw. A semifinal against Sabalenka would be the least I’d expect, and considering that she won the title last year without playing well, by her best standards, she can close again. It’ll depend on who comes through the other half, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in another final.
Iga Swiatek has won four French Open titles, but lost in the semifinals to Aryna Sabalenka in 2025. Robert Prange/Getty ImagesHow do you think Swiatek will fare?Maine: It has been a challenging season for Swiatek, with disappointing losses and a coaching change, but it seemed as if things were finally getting back on track at the Italian Open. She rolled past Naomi Osaka and Jessica Pegula — each winning just three total games against her — but then she was stopped in the semifinals by eventual champion Elina Svitolina. Still, it marked her first semifinal appearance of the year and gave her some much-needed confidence heading into her perennial favorite event.
But the draw in Paris did her no favors. Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 champion who holds a 6-0 career record over Swiatek, could await in the third round. Marta Kostyuk, who won the title in Madrid last month, might then be waiting in the fourth round. And it doesn’t get any easier from there. The red-hot Svitolina, who also defeated Swiatek at Indian Wells this season, is a potential quarterfinal opponent. Rybakina, who has won their past two meetings, could await in the semis. As a four-time champion at the tournament, Swiatek knows how to win on the red clay but will need to rediscover her previous level and aura — and fast — if she wants to have a chance this time around.
Connelly: She still serves up lots of breadsticks (6-1 sets) and bagels (6-0), and her past six losses were all in three sets; she’s closer to her best form than her worst. That’s important to remember. And in her best form, she’s virtually untouchable on clay. It wouldn’t be surprising to see her carve through this draw, as she has quite a few times through the years. But her draw is rough. And it’s almost personalized in the way that she’ll have to work past very Swiatek-specific obstacles, such as Ostapenko. Without her best form, Swiatek probably won’t make the semis.
Cambers: I drew a breath when I saw that Ostapenko could be her third-round opponent, given their crazily skewed head-to-head record, but I think this time, Swiatek would find a way to win that one, should it happen. I loved that she went to Rafa Nadal’s academy to pick the Spaniard’s brains as she works with new coach Francisco Roig. As Madison Keys mentioned on her podcast with Jessica Pegula: “The last thing we needed for Iga to have on clay was Rafa. It should be illegal.”
Swiatek is already hitting with more shape and margin for error under Roig and seems calm and content. She still has bad moments, but they’re likely to become fewer and further between again. A quarterfinal against Elina Svitolina would be another blockbuster, but she has a good chance to win here for a fifth time.
Maine: Before his withdrawal Saturday, I thought Arthur Fils was in a great position for a major breakthrough — and in front of his home crowd, no less — but alas. But Learner Tien is another young player who appears to be figuring out the surface at the right time. The 20-year-old American won his first ATP clay title over the weekend in Geneva and could continue his momentum into the second week in Paris.
On the women’s side, several players are capable of surprise runs, but let’s not forget Sloane Stephens. The 2017 US Open champion and 2018 French Open finalist came through qualifying and looks to be finding her rhythm after an otherwise lackluster year. She has always loved the red clay and has done well at the tournament. Could this be where she turns around everything for another deep Slam run?
Connelly: The bottom half of the men’s draw is available for a dark horse who peaks at a good time, be it a youngster such as Jodar or Fonseca, or a well-positioned veteran such as Tommy Paul. If Djokovic is ever going to win one more Slam, this might be his best shot with Alcaraz out. That would count as a surprise, right?
On the women’s side, Zheng Qinwen hasn’t made tons of noise since her return, but she has a workable draw, and she gave some really good players good fights this spring. She won Olympic gold in Paris two years ago, and this would be a great chance for her to reassert herself.
Cambers: I’ve already singled out Jodar as one to watch on the men’s side, but otherwise, Ruud would fill that role. Twice a finalist here, he looked close to his best again in Rome, and he will relish the hot, fast conditions. His forehand will enable him to work over most of the field. He could have Djokovic in Round 4, but he has beaten Djokovic here before, and it’s not getting easier for the 39-year-old, 24-time Grand Slam champion.
On the women’s side, the Amanda Anisimova quarter looks wide open. She hasn’t played on clay this year, and pulling out of Rome because of a left wrist injury was ominous news for her chances. Several players could come through her quarter, but Linda Noskova, the big-hitting Czech, could have a good run. Though she hasn’t gone deep on clay this year, she has lost to players on a hot streak: Svitolina, Marta Kostyuk and Sorana Cirstea. A quarterfinal against Gauff would be a big challenge, but she has a huge game, and no one enjoys playing her.
American Learner Tien made it to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year. AP Photo/Vincent ThianThe men’s champion will be …Maine: Jannik Sinner. No notes.Connelly: Jodar! Just kidding. Sinner.Cambers: Jannik SinnerThe women’s champion will be …Maine: Coco GauffConnelly: Elena RybakinaCambers: Iga SwiatekBetting tipsAll odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of time of publication.
Pamela Maldonado: I’ll take Elena Rybakina (+650). She has the cleanest path through the draw, momentum coming off a Stuttgart title, and she has already proven that she can beat top players such as Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva (the likely quarterfinal opponent). Rybakina’s serve is a genuine weapon on clay, and she doesn’t have the second-serve vulnerabilities Iga Swiatek has. Rybakina is the most complete player in the women’s draw right now.
Andre Snellings: Coco Gauff (+650). Though Swiatek is a worthy favorite at Roland Garros, where she won three straight titles from 2022 to 2024, Gauff is the better value bet here. Gauff won the French Open last year, solidifying this as the Grand Slam where she has the best results. Gauff has made the quarterfinals at the French Open for five straight years, with a semifinal appearance in 2024, a final in 2022 and the win in 2025. Gauff has also made the final in three of the four WTA 1000-level tournaments she has entered during the past two seasons, including this year’s Italian Open. Gauff is 26-5 on clay during the past two years, with better results than Swiatek on the surface during that span. Gauff also returns solidly more juice at +650 than Swiatek’s +250.
Elena Rybakina won the Australian Open earlier this year and Wimbledon in 2022. Photo by Martin KEEP / AFP via Getty ImagesWho is your men’s pick to win?Maldonado: Jannik Sinner is the only answer here, a coronation barring an unexpected injury, cramping situation or unworldly upset. He’s the best player by a wide margin. Carlos Alcaraz, his only realistic rival, is out. Sinner avoids any top-10 threat until a potential quarterfinal against Ben Shelton, but is it much of a threat when Sinner holds a 9-1 head-to-head record, having won nine straight without dropping a set? I hope Sinner plays against Francisco Cerundolo in the semifinal. A competitive match is at least plausible. Sinner’s odds at (-275) is a thin edge at best. One bad day, one wrist tweak, one relay delay disrupting rhythm, cramping forcing a W/D … variance is high in a best-of-five. Sinner is the right pick, but (-275) is not the right price. Fair, but still a risk.
Snellings: Jannik Sinner (-275). For most of the past three seasons, every men’s major championship has come down to the rivalry between Sinner and Alcaraz. But Alcaraz is sidelined because of a wrist injury, leaving the way open for Sinner to dominate. Minus his rival, Sinner has won every ATP 1000-level clay-court tournament he has entered this season, from the Monte-Carlo Masters to the Madrid Open to the Italian Open. Overall, Sinner is 17-0 on clay this year and 28-2 on clay over the past two years … and his only two losses were both in finals against Alcaraz. There is little reason to believe anyone else can or will beat him on the clay of Roland Garros this year.
Maldonado: First-round two-player parlay: Mirra Andreeva plus Elina Svitolina to both win their opening matches in straight sets at -110 (vs. Fiona Ferro and Anna Bondar). Andreeva’s record and dominant serving (74% service games won) will overpower Ferro, who doesn’t have the reps (she has played only three matches this year). Svitolina’s return game is the killer stat here because she wins return games at a significantly higher clip than Bondar, meaning she’ll constantly break serve while Bondar struggles to do the same against a top-10 player.
Snellings: Iga Swiatek to reach the semifinal (-125). Swiatek has made at least the semifinal in four straight French Opens, and in five of the past six. Four of those results were wins, with Swiatek dominating the clay Grand Slam during this decade. Last season, Swiatek’s streak of three straight French Open titles ended, but she still made the semifinal. She has a tough quarter, including an in-form Elina Svitolina as well as Marta Kostyuk, but if we’re talking Roland Garros and the French Open, then Swiatek will be a well-deserved favorite to advance to the championship rounds.
Maldonado: First round, Rafael Jodar to win in straight sets (3:0) vs. Aleksander Kovacevic (-120). Jodar is 15-3 on clay early in his pro career. The 19-year-old just turned pro in December after leaving the University of Virginia and already has a title, winning Marrakech last month before reaching the quarterfinals in Rome and Madrid. His serve is solid, and he’s showing the traits of a true clay-court grinder with a 6-3 record in deciding sets. The reps and confidence are building. Kovacevic’s return game is alarming on any surface, but on clay, where rallies are longer and points require patience, that return weakness becomes much easier to target.
Snellings: Novak Djokovic to reach the semifinal (+250). Djokovic remains elite at majors, even at this point in his legendary career. Djokovic has made at least the semifinals of each of the past five Grand Slams, including a semifinal at last year’s French Open. In the first major of this year, the Australian Open, Djokovic defeated Sinner in the semifinal and lost to Alcaraz in the final. But Alcaraz is out of the French Open because of a right wrist injury, and Djokovic is on the opposite half of the draw from Sinner. Djokovic has won the French three times, most recently in 2023, and he also won Olympic gold at Roland Garros in 2024. He has a tough quarter, featuring No. 9 seed Alex de Minaur and No. 17 Casper Ruud, but Djokovic has been largely unbeatable in majors outside of injury or facing one of Sinner or Alcaraz. Djokovic has a good chance to make his sixth straight Grand Slam semifinal.
Maldonado: Elina Svitolina (+1500). Her odds are a bit long, considering she beat Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff in consecutive matches in Rome to win the Italian Open, pushing her to seven top-10 wins this year. The blueprint for beating Swiatek is now established: attack the second serve and take time away from the baseline. We could see Swiatek have an early exit. With Svitolina having reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals five times, including last year, she’s arguably coming into this with better form, and no psychological mystery for her to keep from contending.
Snellings: Mirra Andreeva (+900). I like Svitolina as a long shot to win, but Pam already made a great case for her. So, I’ll highlight Andreeva, who is excellent on clay and has been knocking on the door to win the French Open as her potential first major championship. Andreeva, who turned 19 last month, has made the quarterfinal and semifinal in the past two French Opens. Andreeva is a former world No. 1 junior and made the final on clay at this year’s Madrid Open. Andreeva is also an excellent clay-court doubles player, winning the Italian Open and making the final at the Madrid Open this year after a semifinal finish at last year’s French Open. She has the game to win majors, the French Open is on her best surface and this could be the tournament she breaks through.
Maldonado: Novak Djokovic (+1600). There’s a case for Alexander Zverev, who is 28-9 this year, has strong form, and reached the finals in Monte Carlo and Madrid, but there’s no route for him to beat Sinner after losing nine matches straight without winning a single set. On more than one occasion, Djoker has shown that he has that clutch gear, beating Sinner at the Australian Open and Alcaraz in the Paris Olympics. The next-level capabilities are there. His experience is unmatched. You can have doubts about him having just 10 matches played this year, but he can still produce at the highest level when it matters. His big-match mentality outweighs form-based arguments.
Snellings: Casper Ruud (+2800). Ruud has quietly been one of the best clay-court players of the past few years, but he was overshadowed by the bigger names of Nadal, Djokovic and now Alcaraz. But Ruud made two finals and a semifinal at the French Open from 2022 to 2024, and after battling injuries last year, he seems to be returning to form entering this year’s tournament. Ruud made the quarterfinals at this year’s Madrid Open and the Finals at the Italian Open, losing to Sinner. Sinner is the clear favorite at the French this season, but Ruud has more chops and better results at Roland Garros than any other player other than Djokovic. If he puts together his best tennis, Ruud has the game to play for the championship.
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