Newest on Matthews, McDavid, Hughes and other big-name playersplayWhat does Connor McDavid’s future look like in Edmonton? (1:41)Emily Kaplan
As the NHL season nears a close, teams are gearing up for what could be a busy summer. A jump in the salary cap means more flexibility. And if the Vegas Golden Knights making their third trip to the Stanley Cup Final in nine years proves anything, teams that act boldly often get rewarded.
Here’s what I’m hearing about the key storylines emerging over the next few months.
AUSTON MATTHEWS AND Connor McDavid are in similar spots: As captains in pressure markets, there will be noise about them and their future any season the team doesn’t win. They’re both under contract through the 2027-28 season. Though they have loyalty to their teams, what they’re looking for most is conviction.
Matthews and McDavid are represented by the same agent, who preaches the same thing: Why make a decision before they have to? So as they move through the primes of their career, they’re constantly assessing whether their organizations are acting aggressively enough to put them in position to win. Neither team has hired a coach for next season yet, which is a major data point. Don’t expect any news from McDavid after a disappointing Oilers season. He just signed a short-term, team-friendly deal last summer. Edmonton already knows it’s on the clock with its generational superstar.
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On Matthews, there’s a bit more uncertainty given the management change. But there’s still a strong belief that nothing will change with Matthews’ situation ahead of next season. He loves being captain in Toronto, loves the city and wants to win there.
There is supposed to be a meeting between Matthews, new general manager John Chayka and president of hockey operations Mats Sundin. This isn’t unusual. When Kyle Dubas was fired as Maple Leafs general manager after the 2022-23 season, Matthews also took time, met with new leadership and worked through what the next era would look like. The only reason it hasn’t happened yet is logistics: Matthews is recovering from knee surgery after the hit by Radko Gudas and can’t travel far from Arizona as he rehabs. Sundin is relocating his family from Europe. They’re knee-deep in scouting meetings in Toronto. But the lines of communication have been open. Chayka hasn’t tipped his hand publicly, but there’s belief the Leafs want to stay aggressive and compete now — not pivot toward any kind of rebuild. Management is not asking for Matthews’ input on decisions such as roster moves or coaches, but they are keeping him in the loop.
ANOTHER THING THE Leafs have kept close to the vest: what they’ll do with the No. 1 draft pick. Most scouts and executives I’ve checked in with still believe Gavin McKenna is the most likely pick simply because of his high ceiling. Beyond the skill, McKenna showed at Penn State this season he can handle noise — and often feed off it. Whether it was a loud building or moments when scrutiny turned negative, evaluators saw a player who used that energy as fuel, not something that rattled him. A GM’s worst nightmare is passing on a talent like McKenna and he hits, then spends years making you regret it.
But Ivar Stenberg has made this more of a conversation than many expected. His profile has increased steadily through his draft year, and some evaluators believe his maturity, two-way detail and pro-ready game have at least forced a deeper internal debate. Caleb Malhotra is also getting a ton of love and might surprise some with just how high he has climbed on several team’s draft boards.
It’s an uber-talented class. But it still runs through McKenna. One front office executive put it bluntly: “You better be absolutely sure if you’re going to pass on McKenna.”
ALEX OVECHKIN RETURNED to Moscow last week, and from everything I’m hearing, little has changed in his situation. The decision appears to be whether to retire from the NHL or return to Washington on a one-year contract. Ovechkin’s mother, Tatiana — one of his closest confidants — has also been in Russia as he considers the next step. The most recent timeline I was given was around the draft — before or shortly after — when many players begin ramping up offseason training. But if Ovechkin needs more time, the Capitals appear willing to give it to him. Communication has remained open between Ovechkin and the organization as both sides continue to work through key questions, including what his role would look like next season. That conversation is particularly notable after Washington hired power-play coach Ray Bennett.
THE COACHING CAROUSEL might still run through Vegas — and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final could further complicate it. The Golden Knights have made clear their focus is on the playoffs, and as of now, are waiting until their season is over before deciding whether to grant permission for Bruce Cassidy to interview elsewhere. The league is not expected to intervene, as it views Vegas within its league and legal rights to withhold permission while Cassidy is still under contract. There is mutual interest between Cassidy and Edmonton, and I believe he’d also like to speak with Los Angeles, which also has interest. But even when Vegas’ season ends, there’s no guarantee the organization will allow those conversations.
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That matters because Edmonton has made it clear it wants a veteran coach. And now, some executives around the league are wondering: If Cassidy isn’t available, do they pivot to John Tortorella as Plan B? Tortorella signed with Vegas only through the end of the season. The long-term expectation had been that the Golden Knights would eventually turn to Ryan Craig — their AHL coach, someone they’ve developed internally for years and who has a long-standing relationship with Kelly McCrimmon since junior hockey. But Tortorella’s success this spring might have complicated that timeline. How can Vegas turn away from Tortorella now? So the bigger question might not just be whether Cassidy is available. It’s whether Vegas suddenly has to make a coaching decision of its own.
THE MAPLE LEAFS have real interest in coach David Carle and he seems to be at least entertaining it. But he has been highly selective about making the jump to the NHL and has never wanted to do it just for the sake of it.
Part of that is the cutthroat nature of NHL coaching contracts. He already has one of the best jobs in hockey at the University of Denver, where he has built a powerhouse with the stability and control few NHL coaches ever get.
And around hockey circles, there long has been a belief that if Carle does leave, the Colorado Avalanche could be the ideal fit. He has deep ties there, and many around the league have wondered whether he’d rather wait for a job like Colorado than jump at just any NHL opening.
So now that Colorado has suffered a stunning playoff exit, does that suddenly add another layer to the conversation around Jared Bednar — and Carle’s future? Bednar, extremely well-regarded around the league, would not be out of work for long.
ALEX TUCH’S EXTENSION talks were intentionally shelved at the end of the regular season and through the playoffs. The Buffalo Sabres had the luxury of patience, and so did Tuch. At that point, they were not close on money. They’ll now circle back on conversations, and Tuch’s camp feels as if it doesn’t yet have a final answer from GM Jarmo Kekalainen. So the question is whether that gap has narrowed into striking distance. Tuch played below market value on his last deal, and though money is not the only factor here, he is viewed around the league as a highly desirable player who could command double-digit average annual value in a weak free agent class. If Buffalo gets competitive, there’s a path. If not, this could become a relatively straightforward decision. Either way, Tuch’s zero-point performance against Montreal is not a major factor here. Every team, but specifically Buffalo, will be looking at the 30-year-old’s larger body of work and all-around impact (including the fact he was a big reason the Sabres made the playoffs, and his four goals against Boston in the first round).
WHEN I CHECKED in with Bill Guerin this week, he mentioned he was “confident” the Wild would re-sign Quinn Hughes when he’s eligible for an extension on July 1 — citing their relationship, Hughes’ positive experience in Minnesota, and what he knows matters most to the star defenseman: winning.
The Wild would like Hughes as long as they can have him. Guerin acts with conviction, the owner has no problem signing checks for big-time talent (see: Kirill Kaprizov) so this could be a massive deal. But the Wild also know this is about what Hughes wants. The expectation around the league is that Hughes ultimately re-signs in Minnesota, with a three-year deal viewed as a logical structure because it would align with brother Jack Hughes’ contract timeline.
Quinn Hughes had 53 points in 48 games with the Wild. Ashley Potts/NHLIHughes will have more serious conversations with his agent and family in the coming weeks as he weighs what’s next. A clear path to the Stanley Cup is important. There was a real feeling internally that if the Wild had been healthier — particularly with Jonas Brodin and Joel Eriksson Ek available against Colorado — that series could have looked different. But for Hughes, family is also part of that equation, with two brothers already in the league. From Minnesota’s side, it will continue to be aggressive this summer, with finding a center still an absolute priority, but only if it’s the right deal and the right fit.
AS FOR THE next wave of cornerstone franchise contracts? We could see a few massive ones this summer.
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Macklin Celebrini is eligible to sign an extension July 1, and the expectation is the Sharks won’t drag this out if both sides are aligned. This is a franchise-defining negotiation. Because this is the last offseason before the new CBA changes max extension length, Celebrini can sign an eight-year deal if it’s registered before Sept. 15. NHL contracts are capped at 20% of the salary cap, meaning the Sharks can offer Celebrini eight years by $20.8 million for $166.4 million total, which would surpass Kaprizov’s $136 million ($17 million AAV) deal from last offseason. They can also include sweeteners such as max signing bonus structure and a no-movement clause. Celebrini wearing a “C” as captain next season is all but guaranteed. But whether San Jose goes all the way to that number, or whether Celebrini wants to commit that long as a 20-year-old in a rapidly changing cap landscape, is a separate question.
Then there are Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson. Both players effectively bet on themselves, putting long-term contract talks on the back burner this season — and both followed it up with massive production efforts that only strengthened their leverage. Now it becomes a bit of a game of chicken. Whichever side moves first could help define the next tier of superstar contracts. If one signs first, that deal immediately becomes a benchmark — not only on AAV, but structure, term, bonuses, and how aggressively teams are willing to pay elite young centers entering their prime. Many around the league are expecting Bedard to go first; there seems to be no rush on Carlsson and the Ducks’ side when I checked in this week.
THE JASON ROBERTSON saga will finally see some clarity and all signs point to an extension in Dallas, rather than a trade. There’s interest from the Sabres to extend Zach Benson and the Flyers to re-sign Trevor Zegras. Pavel Dorofeyev has made himself a ton of money this season, especially with how he’s scoring in the postseason. As usual, Vegas will need to do some maneuvering (like finding a new home for Adin Hill, and possibly other shocking moves) to create space.
Other young players who could be due big extensions this summer include Simon Edvinsson and Adam Fantilli. Patience is the word for the restricted free agents. All too often they don’t get settled until September, right before the season. As for offer sheets — they remain hockey’s favorite offseason hypothetical. But for one to actually happen, everything has to line up: cap space, draft-pick compensation, player buy-in and a team willing to push the risk. That’s why the noise almost always outweighs the action.
