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With the UEFA Champions League’s extended league phase over, it’s time for the extended knockout rounds. That’s both a pointed commentary and a celebration.
Are soccer’s major competitions bloated? Probably. Is the sport’s calendar bursting at the seams? Absolutely. And do these extended competitions give us even more stories to follow and offer more clubs access to moments they’ll talk about forever? Absolutely.
Over the next two weeks, 16 teams will vie for the eight remaining spots in the Champions League round of 16. Clubs such as Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Inter Milan will look to right their league phase wrongs and prepare for another long spring of European nights. Others, including Bodo/Glimt, Benfica and FK Qarabag, will look to continue their miraculous stories after providing some of the sport’s more enduring moments in the fall and winter. And until they’re eliminated, everyone technically has a chance at winning the whole thing.
– Three bold ways we would change the UEFA Champions League
– Ogden: Real Madrid broke Mourinho. Now he could break them with Benfica
– Best tifos of the UEFA Champions League, Europa League this season
For each of the 24 remaining teams with a shot at the Champions League crown, let’s talk about why they could win the whole thing … and why they probably won’t.
Playoff games will be held Tuesday-Wednesday (first leg) and Feb. 24-25 (second leg)
ArsenalAverage title odds: 26.3%
Next opponent: Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund or Olympiacos (round of 16)
(Note: I created a set of average title odds based on those set by Opta’s supercomputer, DraftKings and xStandings.com on Monday morning.)
Why they will win it all: They’re the best team in Europe. Plain and simple. Mikel Arteta and Arsenal have been building toward this exact moment for years, and they head into the spring with a shot at four different trophies.
They’ve reached the League Cup final and FA Cup fifth round, they lead the Premier League by four points, and dominated the UCL league phase to the tune of eight wins and a 23-4 scoring margin in eight matches. They have the sturdiest defense in the world, they have all the depth they’ve ever wanted, they dominate set pieces in a moment when set pieces matter more than ever, and in the Champions League — which remains a bit more wide open than the physical and claustrophobic Premier League — they were the most dominant team in open play as well, scoring 17 such goals (third most) and allowing only three (second fewest).
From old reliables such as defenders William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, midfielders Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard, and wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, to devastating newcomers such as Martín Zubimendi and Noni Madueke, they have everything they need. They just have to close the deal.
Julien Laurens praises Eberechi Eze performance vs. Wigan as Mikel Arteta rotated his starting XI in the FA cup.
Why they won’t: It’s really, really hard to close the deal. Arsenal are the resounding favorites, but they will still have to win four knockout round ties over the next 3½ months, and based on the odds above, there’s a 3-in-4 chance they won’t. They might have to beat 2024 finalist Borussia Dortmund and either Real Madrid or Manchester City just to reach the semifinals.
For as devastating as they’ve been this season, they don’t have much recent experience trailing on the scoreboard, and they’ve battled moments of patchy form — such as a 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest, followed by a loss to Manchester United in the Premier League. Arsenal are by far the best-equipped team in the field, but this is a gauntlet.
Bayern MunichAverage title odds: 16.4%
Next opponent: Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund or Olympiacos (round of 16)
Why they will win it all: They take all the good shots. Even while at far less than full-strength — Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies combined for just 117 minutes as they recovered from long-term injuries — Bayern rolled through the league phase as if it were the old group stage.
Despite drawing a particularly strong set of opponents (Arsenal, PSG, Chelsea), they dropped points only once, at Arsenal, and finished the league phase second in goals (22), expected goals created (20.3), shots per possession (0.18), progressive passes (545) and buildup attacks* (54). They also attempted 33 shots worth at least 0.2 xG (the most in the competition) while allowing only 11. That’s a plus-22 margin, tied for the best with Arsenal.
Harry Kane attempted 10 of those big shots (including three penalties) — only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé and Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen (11 each) had more — but Luis Díaz (five), Michael Olise (four), Lennart Karl (four) and substitute Nico Jackson (four) also had quite a few.
(*Buildup attacks: Sequences with 10 or more passes that end in a shot or a touch inside the box.)
Why they won’t: Can we trust the defense? Overall, Bayern’s defensive numbers are excellent. They allowed only eight goals in the league phase, and gave opponents almost no high-quality chances — they were fourth in xG allowed per shot, shockingly good for a team that so thoroughly dominates the ball and leaves so much counterattacking space behind its defensive line. But while they’ve allowed only 2.0 or more xG in five of 34 games in all competitions, (A) it has happened three times in their past eight matches, and (B) Arsenal created 3.1 (and scored three goals) back in November.
That’s not a happy trend, and it’s not a great sign of what might happen if they get to play Arsenal again.
Manchester CityAverage title odds: 8.9%
Next opponent: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bodo/Glimt or Benfica (round of 16)
Don Hutchison and Kieran Gibbs speak after Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Salford City in the FA Cup fourth round.
Why they will win it all: So many scary dudes. It’s hard not to notice how dangerous City look at the moment. They’ve taken a stumble each time they’ve begun to feel inevitable this season — they lost to Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen after beating Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund and Bournemouth by a combined 10-2; they suffered three straight draws to Sunderland, Chelsea and Brighton at the start of 2026; they thumped Newcastle and then lost to Manchester United and Bodo/Glimt by a combined 5-1 — but Pep Guardiola has started tons of guys in tons of competitions of late, and so many have produced.
Left back Nico O’Reilly, one-footed as he might be, blocks more passes than almost anyone on the planet and has become City’s most dangerous aerial threat; center back Abdukodir Khusanov is becoming the ultrareliable ball progressor Guardiola envisioned a year ago; midfielder Rayan Cherki is winning endless duels and creating endless chances; Bernardo Silva remains Bernardo Silva.
Rodri hasn’t quite returned to his Ballon d’Or form, but we’re seeing a clearer outline — he’s first on the team in both ball recoveries and progressive passes in 2026. And new forward Antoine Semenyo moved to Manchester and immediately began creating an unfair number of high-quality shots.
Green dots = goal; red dots = no goal. The larger the dot, the higher the xG
City were far too reliant on Erling Haaland’s otherworldly goal scoring early in the season, but he has scored only four goals in his past 12 outings, and City look more dangerous than ever. They enter the knockout rounds unbeaten in their past seven matches.
Why they won’t: Inconsistency. I guess I already gave that one away above. Every time City have looked like a possible juggernaut, they’ve stumbled. Considering the age and/or newness of so many important players — O’Reilly is 20, Khusanov is 21, and of the 12 guys who have logged the most minutes in 2026, six have been in Manchester for less than 13 months — that isn’t a surprise. But we’re reaching the point in the season when glitches become devastating, even if you look great most of the time.
BarcelonaAverage title odds: 8.2%
Next opponent: PSG, Newcastle, Monaco or Qarabag (round of 16)
Why they will win it all: Lamine Yamal. Barcelona have had a pretty strange season. They have suffered some randomly awful results — losses of 4-1 to Sevilla in October, 3-0 to Chelsea in November, 4-0 to Atlético in the Copa del Rey last week — but they’ve also led LaLiga for much of the way, and ranked ahead of City, Real Madrid and loads of others while finishing fifth in the UCL league phase. Injuries have been frustrating, and early in the season it seemed that Yamal was having a disappointing campaign (his version of disappointment, anyway).
Despite back-to-back losses, Yamal has scored seven goals with two assists from 49 chances created in his past 11 matches. He has been unlucky, too: His expected assist total (generated from the scoring threat of the passes he has completed) is 7.9 in that span. He’s soaring and, even after a bad week, Barca have won 17 of their past 20 matches in all competitions.
With Yamal leading the way, it will take only a decent level of defensive stability for this team to be a major Champions League threat.
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Why they won’t: Shot quality (for and against). With his undying love of a high defensive line and extreme field tilt, Hansi Flick is one of the last great system guys in major soccer. That means we always know Barcelona’s strengths and potential vulnerabilities in advance.
They still draw opponents offside more than anyone, but injuries and personnel changes have resulted in endless shuffling at center back, and glitches have been devastating. They rank 26th in xG allowed per shot in the Champions League, and with Flick having to shuffle his attacking personnel as well — attackers Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski and midfield catalyst Pedri played under 60% of minutes in the league phase — Barca ranked 29th in xG per shot in attack.
LiverpoolAverage title odds: 8.1%
Next opponent: Juventus, Atlético Madrid, Club Brugge or Galatasaray (round of 16)
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Mo Salah’s performance vs. Brighton after he converted a penalty in the 68th minute.
Why they will win it all: That poor run of form is long gone. Liverpool had a messy autumn, suffering nine losses in 12 games at one point, with Mo Salah struggling and growing publicly petulant. But they’ve lost only two of their past 19 matches, and since Salah’s return to the lineup they’ve scored 20 goals in five matches. Salah has two goals and four assists in that span, and Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike are soaring: They’ve combined for 14 goals and six assists in all competitions in 2026.
Draws have held them back in Premier League play, but their underlying xG numbers are increasingly awesome, and they won their past three Champions League matches by a combined 10-0. Last season, they peaked early and slumped a bit in the spring. This year, they might be doing the exact opposite.
Why they won’t: Do you trust their defense? Because I sure don’t. The epic defensive glitches of the early season are mostly a thing of the past; in this 19-match, two-loss run, they’ve allowed only 16 total goals with nine clean sheets. But their past six matches have included breakdown-heavy performances against Bournemouth (3-2 loss) and Manchester City (2-1), and their past three opponents have combined for 45 shot attempts.
Granted, most of their defensive breakdowns have come against domestic opponents this season, but, well, there are lots of English opponents left in this competition.
Paris Saint-GermainAverage title odds: 6.7%
Next opponent: Monaco (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: They’re still the champs (and sometimes look like it). Injuries haven’t been particularly kind to them in 2025-26, and the god of xG has had some tricks up his sleeves at times — they’ve had a positive xG differential in five of their six losses in all competitions. But PSG were the best team in the world for at least about six months in 2025, and they still employ most of the reasons for that brilliance. Ten of the 11 starters from last year’s Champions League final remain with the club, but only two of them (midfielder Vitinha and center back Willian Pacho) have played even 60% of the team’s minutes, while key attackers Ousmane Dembélé (35.3%) and Désiré Doué (35.6%) are both under 40%.
We’ve seen plenty of hints of that old brilliance: PSG beat Atalanta 4-0 in September, Bayer Leverkusen 7-2 in October, Rennes 5-0 in December, and Marseille 5-0 just over a week ago. It would surprise no one if they made another huge run in this competition.
Why they won’t: Sometimes it never comes together. Hangovers happen, and plenty of players just haven’t quite matched last year’s ridiculous form. That list starts with reigning Ballon d’Or winner Dembele, who scored just once from shots worth 2.3 xG in the league phase. He has made up for that with excellent finishing in Ligue 1, but he didn’t top 1,000 total minutes for the season until last Friday, and he has only so much longer to find fifth gear.
ChelseaAverage title odds: 5.8%
Next opponent: PSG, Newcastle, Monaco or Qarabag (round of 16)
Why they will win it all: Cole Palmer’s going from cold to hot. Since hiring Liam Rosenior to replace Enzo Maresca as manager, Chelsea are unbeaten against teams not named Arsenal (to whom they lost both legs of the League Cup semifinal). Chelsea have scored 28 goals in these 11 matches, and although nine of those came against lower-division Charlton and Hull City in the FA Cup, the Blues scored three goals in four other matches and even put two in the net against Arsenal. That’s no small feat.
Perhaps most importantly, a lot of the strong recent attacking work has come from Palmer, who battled injuries and shaky form for much of the first few months of the season. He has 12 combined goals and assists in 2025-26, and eight of those (five goals, three assists) have come in his past six matches.
Why they won’t: Transition defense. For basically any possession-heavy team, transition defense can be a point of vulnerability, and almost no one has been more vulnerable than Chelsea in that regard. Opponents averaged 0.21 xG per shot against them in the league phase (35th, ahead of only Union Saint-Gilloise); they also rank 19th in that category in the Premier League, and those averages haven’t fallen much since Rosenior took over. (Arsenal averaged 0.27 xG per shot over two legs.) This flaw seems pretty fatal.
Inter MilanAverage title odds: 5.3%
Next opponent: Bodo/Glimt (playoff round)
Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti react to Pierre Kalulu’s red card after he was sent off in controversial fashion.
Why they will win it all: It’s the only step left. Despite losing head coach Simone Inzaghi after a second Champions League final appearance in three seasons, Inter have become more Inter than ever under new boss Cristian Chivu this year. Their defense is sturdier than ever — only Arsenal allowed fewer goals in the league phase, and after a shaky start, Inter have allowed fewer goals than all but Roma in Serie A since mid-September. But the attack is also awfully strong: Inter have scored 17 more goals than anyone else in Serie A, and they ranked sixth in the league phase in xG created (16.6), even if their finishing betrayed them a couple of times.
An Italian team haven’t won the Champions League since Inter did it in 2010, so maybe their recent finals appearances are as good as it gets. But they will bring quality, confidence and ridiculous recent form — they’ve won their past six matches by a combined 20-5 — to the knockout rounds.
Why they won’t: Raw upside. Going back to 2022-23, when Inter reached their first of two recent finals, they’ve played five matches against Premier League teams; they scored just two goals and were lucky to take even a win (1-0 vs. Arsenal in November 2024) and a draw. Throw in four matches against Bayern in that span, plus last season’s final against PSG, and you have a 10-match sample in which Inter managed just eight points and got outscored 17-6.
Inter are good at most things and bad at almost nothing, but the upside required to reach the final and then actually win it seems a step away. (That was certainly reinforced by their back-to-back home losses to Liverpool and Arsenal in this year’s league phase.)
Real MadridAverage title odds: 3.6%
Next opponent: Benfica (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Kylian Mbappé. An individual can’t win the Champions League, but you can’t say Mbappé isn’t trying. He lapped the league phase field, scoring 13 goals when no one else topped eight. (Sure, three of those were penalties, but so were two of Kane’s eight goals and one of Haaland’s seven.) Meanwhile, he created the most chances for teammates, too, with 25. Somehow none of those turned into assists, but he was on a different plane of attacking existence.
(Mbappe sort of drove Arda Güler’s star turn, too: Güler’s 24 chances created were second in the competition, and his four assists were tied for first — and seven of the chances and three of the assists went to Mbappé.)
You sign with Real Madrid to rule the Champions League, and, as they say, Mbappé understands the assignment.
Why they won’t: This isn’t an actual team. Real Madrid’s hire of Xabi Alonso appeared to be an admission that “glory ball” driven by individuals always struggles against the increasingly physical, collective-based ball of the day. It was always fair to assume Alonso was going to ask his stars to press and sacrifice some minutes in the name of a bigger rotation. He did that with a solid amount of success, but Real Madrid fired him anyway amid rumored star discontent despite just five losses in 28 matches and a huge run of injuries.
Since Alonso’s firing, Real Madrid have enjoyed a couple of resounding wins (6-1 over Monaco, 4-1 over Real Sociedad) under new guy Alvaro Arbeloa, but they also lost to Albacete in the Copa del Rey and fell 4-2 to Benfica in a costly final UCL matchday. Their defense remains terribly fragile, with no pressing at the front and shaky personnel at the back, and there’s no reason to trust that a group of individuals will be able to prevail through all the knockout rounds.
Gab Marcotti discusses Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad after Vinicius Junior scores twice.
NewcastleAverage title odds: 2.4%
Next opponent: Qarabag (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: The back four. Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon basically declared that playing in the more wide open Champions League was a lot more fun than the Premier League a while back, and the Magpies have backed up that sentiment, saving their best ball for European nights. They’ve failed to stand out in any way domestically — they’re 10th in the Premier League table, eighth in goals scored and 11th in goals allowed — but in this competition, they’ve managed to combine sturdy defensive play with bursts of brilliance from Gordon and fellow winger Harvey Barnes (combined: 11 goals, three assists).
Despite starting with Barcelona and finishing with PSG, Newcastle allowed only seven goals in eight league-phase matches, with Nick Pope standing on his head (84.8% save percentage), the center back combination of Malick Thiaw and Dan Burn playing mostly mistake-free and right back Kieran Trippier continuing to play key, creative ball at age 35. Granted, they could draw PL opponents in both the round of 16 (Chelsea) and quarterfinals (Liverpool or Spurs), but so far, Europe has allowed them to play the style they’re best at.
Why they won’t: They sure don’t counter well for a countering team. Gordon and Barnes have been excellent, but if you’re leaning on defense and vertical attacking — translation: a terribly low possession rate and poor pass-completion numbers — you should be better at the vertical attacking. In counterattacks, Newcastle ranked just 23rd in xG created and 19th in shots attempted, and forwards Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa combined for just two goals and 10 shot attempts in the league phase.
Even if the defense holds up, it’s hard to trust the attack.
Sporting CPAverage title odds: 2.2%
Next opponent: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bodo/Glimt or Benfica (round of 16)
Why they will win it all: Nothing comes easy. They lose successful managers such as Ruben Amorim, they lose expensive players including Viktor Gyökeres, and they just become more Sporting-like over time. In theory, expanding the league phase should make it harder for the sport’s light heavyweights to snag a top-eight finish, but Sporting did so with brilliant late play, topping PSG and coming back to beat Athletic Club at San Mames in the final two matchdays.
Their main strength is the most Sporting strength of all: They give you absolutely nothing. Opponents averaged just 0.10 xG per shot against them in the league phase — far below what Arsenal, Newcastle or anyone else gave up. They allowed more shots than they attempted, but they kept at least two defenders between the ball and the goal for 83% of opponents’ shot attempts. Keep that up, and they could stay close in any tie.
Why they won’t: No urgency in attack. They defend well, and they attack opponents head-on with lots of progressive carries and fouls drawn. But although they came back against Athletic Club and Marseille, they were lucky not to have to play from behind much against higher-level opposition. There’s not a lot of directness in their attack — their direct speed (the average meters per second that the ball advances up the pitch in an average sequence) ranks just 17th, dead-on average, and they created just two direct attacks (sequences starting in the defending half and producing a shot within 20 seconds) in eight matches.
If they’re behind and have to force the issue, we have no evidence that this will work out particularly well.
Tottenham HotspurAverage title odds: 1.8%
Next opponent: Juventus, Atlético Madrid, Club Brugge or Galatasaray (round of 16)
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discusses the appointment of Igor Tudor as interim manager until the end of the season.
Why they will win it all: There’s something about European nights. Yes, the Premier League is really, really good. But that alone doesn’t explain the disparity in Spurs’ performances domestically and in European play over the past calendar year.
Since the start of 2024-25, Spurs have averaged a ghastly 1.05 points per game in the Premier League — and lost two of three FA Cup matches — while averaging 2.17 points per game in European competitions. They won the Europa League last season, beating soon-to-be Champions League teams such as Bodo/Glimt, Eintracht Frankfurt and Qarabag along the way; having therefore qualified for the Champions League despite a 17th-place PL finish, they lost at PSG but outscored seven other opponents by a combined 14-2 to place fourth.
Under both Ange Postecoglou and Thomas Frank, they did a great job of accepting their limitations, focusing on defense and keeping plenty of bodies behind the ball. And they got just enough in attack — including three goals and two assists from Randal Kolo Muani — to make it all work. Now they head into the knockout rounds with Igor Tudor in charge. He’d be smart not to fiddle with the recipe, even if Spurs’ overall performances are as confusing as they are heartening.
Why they won’t: They aren’t very good! Their attack desperately lacks creativity, and their defense is good only in the Champions League. They are 16th in the Premier League table, five points from the drop zone, and their underlying numbers suggest this is in no way unlucky: They’re 16th in xG differential, too. There’s clearly a benefit to saving all of your best performances for Europe, but surely that can’t continue for a few more rounds, right?
JuventusAverage title odds: 1.8%
Next opponent: Galatasaray (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Luciano Spalletti is at the wheel. One of Italy’s best managers for basically three decades now, Spalletti won the Scudetto with Napoli in 2022-23 and, after a rather ill-fated stint with the Italy national team, took over a messy Juventus side on Oct. 30. From that point forward, Juve have taken a clear step forward. They allowed only three goals in their past five Champions League matches, always keeping defenders between the ball and goal and springing endless counterattacks against overwhelmed opponents such as Bodo/Glimt and Pafos (who were hard to counter against because they never had the ball).
Jonathan David, Kenan Yildiz and Weston McKennie are all thriving under Spalletti — they’ve combined for 19 goals and 11 assists in all competitions since he joined.
Juve lost only twice in Spalletti’s first 20 matches in charge, and while they enter the knockout rounds on the heels of recent losses to Atalanta and Inter, they played Inter tighter than most Italian teams have been lately. They’re playing awfully close to their capabilities.
Why they won’t: Exactly how capable are those capabilities? Juve’s draw ended up being one of the easiest in the league phase — they finished 13th but played only two opponents that finished higher: Real Madrid (to whom they were lucky to lose only 1-0) and Sporting CP (1-1 draw). Their xG differential was minus-1.83 against Real Madrid, and it was minus-1.35 in the tight loss to Inter on Saturday. They’re relatively upset-proof at this point, but the ceiling here might not be incredibly high.
Atlético MadridAverage title odds: 1.2%
Next opponent: Club Brugge (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: When they look good, they look like the best Diego Simeone team yet. Since he was hired in 2011, Simeone’s side have won two LaLiga titles, two Europa Leagues and a Copa del Rey, and have reached the Champions League finals twice (cruelly losing to Real Madrid both times). He’s unquestionably one of the most successful managers of the era. But the raw upside they’ve shown at times this season has been jaw-dropping.
Atleti walloped Real Madrid (5-2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (5-1) within four days back in September. Already this month, they’ve crushed Real Betis (5-0) and Barcelona (4-0). Julián Álvarez is becoming one of the most well-rounded forwards in the world; he leads Atlético in goals and assists in all competitions, but he also presses, blocks passes and seeks contact everywhere on the pitch. Meanwhile, though his minutes have been limited at age 34, Antoine Griezmann still has 12 goals and an assist on the season.
With customary Simeone defense and occasionally sexy creativity, this team can beat anyone in Europe at any time.
Why they won’t: When they look bad, they look like the worst Simeone team yet. Right before the Real Madrid and Eintracht wins, they drew with Mallorca; right after, they drew with Celta Vigo. They lost to Bodo/Glimt and drew 0-0 with Bayer Leverkusen before pummeling Real Betis, and they lost 1-0 to Betis in an immediate rematch. What happened after they embarrassed Barca? They got thumped 3-0 by Rayo Vallecano, of course.
It’s like the bursts of upside that have created their best moments have resulted in less control in other moments. This team could lose to anyone in Europe at any time.
Borussia DortmundAverage title odds: 0.9%
Next opponent: Atalanta (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: They’re not actually bad at anything. That seems pretty important, yeah? Dortmund create a steady stream of quality scoring chances (second in the league phase in xG per shot). They play intense defense (fifth in the league phase in passes allowed per defensive action) with a high defensive line (sixth in offsides drawn) without getting torn up in transition defense (10th in xG allowed per shot). They create strong opportunities in set pieces (first in xG created from set pieces, sixth in set piece goals).
At the back, they have a world-class center back coming into his prime (Nico Schlotterbeck), and at the front they have a streaky but world-class-when-he’s-on goal scorer (Serhou Guirassy, who has five goals in his past three matches). They have a successful recent track record, too — seven of the starters from their run to the 2023-24 Champions League final still play in the schwarz and gelb — and they’ve won seven straight Bundesliga matches to pull within six points of Bayern.
In the aggregate, there’s a whole lot to like about this team and its capabilities, and if BVB were to beat anyone in the competition, it wouldn’t be a shock.
Why they won’t: They don’t beat good teams. That also seems important. Against five teams that advanced into the Champions League knockout rounds, they managed just two points; against three teams that finished in the top 10, they were outscored 8-1. In the Bundesliga, they’ve played seven matches against the rest of the top eight and have won just twice, with four draws and a loss (to Bayern).
They aren’t bad at anything, but it appears they might not be good enough at anything to make a big run, either.
BenficaAverage title odds: 0.5%
Next opponent: Real Madrid (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Jose Mourinho magic. Mourinho’s squad needed nine points from their last four league-phase matches to advance, and it got them. Benfica didn’t realize they needed another goal against Real Madrid in the final matchday until nearly the last sequence of the match, but they got it.
GOALKEEPER ANATOLIY TRUBIN SCORES A 98TH MINUTE GOAL AGAINST REAL MADRID TO SAVE BENFICA’S #UCL SEASON WITH THE FINAL TOUCH OF THE MATCH! 😱
IMAGINE NOT LOVING FOOTBALL 🤯 pic.twitter.com/y0thIBEQb5
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 28, 2026
Benfica have already given this competition impossible entertainment value over the past couple of months, but who says they can’t keep it going a while longer?
They keep opponents out of the box, their key trio of full backs Amar Dedic and Samuel Dahl and defensive midfielder Enzo Barrenechea have won 62% of their ground duels in the Champions League, they win set piece battles, and after loads of inconsistency, they might be discovering decent form again: In their past five matches, they’re unbeaten with a scoring margin of 12-4.
Why they won’t: Who scores? Granted, if you’re even getting goals from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin when you need them, then you’re allowed to feel as if you’re a team of destiny. But no one scored more than two goals for Benfica in the league phase, and they had scored just six goals in seven matches until the eruption against Real Madrid. Vangelis Pavlidis hasn’t really translated his incredible Primeira Liga form (19 goals in 21 matches) to Champions League success, and it’s hard to imagine Benfica scoring enough to make a big run, even if drawing Real Madrid for the playoff round has to give them a boost of confidence.
AtalantaAverage title odds: 0.5%
Next opponent: Borussia Dortmund (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: The bigger the opponent, the better they play. Two years ago, Atalanta eliminated Liverpool from the Europa League quarterfinals, then handed Bayer Leverkusen their only loss of the season with a 3-0 pummeling in the final. In last season’s UCL league phase, they finished ahead of Real Madrid, Bayern, PSG and others, thanks in part to excellent draws against Arsenal and Barcelona.
This year, they scored a 2-1 win over Chelsea amid an otherwise poor run of form. That allowed them to snag 15th in the table and the right to play the return leg against Dortmund at home.
Atalanta haven’t been very good this season — they’ve had to rally to get back up to sixth in Serie A after a dreadful start, and they’ve lost to a number of low-ranked teams in the Champions League and Serie A. But their form has improved since hiring Raffaele Palladino in November, and they remain more likely to bring it when it counts.
Why they won’t: No disruption. Since Palladino took over, Atalanta have done a better job of establishing steady buildup play. They’ve had excellent bursts of attacking work from Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere, too. Losing Ademola Lookman to Atlético hasn’t hurt them much yet. But they’re playing with a low defensive block and failing to generate much disruption before the ball reaches the final third, and attempts at quick counters have been mostly extinguished.
Particularly good opponents can pin them deep and never let them out of their end.
Bayer LeverkusenAverage title odds: 0.5%
Next opponent: Olympiacos (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: The goals are adding up. In a single summer, Leverkusen lost manager Xabi Alonso and an impossible number of key players from their amazing Bundesliga title run two seasons ago; that includes Wirtz (Liverpool), Granit Xhaka (Sunderland), Jeremie Frimpong (Liverpool), Jonathan Tah (Bayern) and Piero Hincapié (Arsenal). It was entirely to be expected, then, that this club’s next generation would battle ups and downs in 2025-26. Leverkusen fired Alonso’s initial replacement, Erik ten Hag, just a few matches into the season, and their Bundesliga form has been all over the place.
Since a demoralizing 3-0 loss to Bayern on Nov. 1, however, this team have slowly shifted into gear. Leverkusen have scored 36 goals in their past 18 matches, they’ve beaten Manchester City in the Champions League and Borussia Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal, and since a stumble after their return from winter break, they’re unbeaten in their past six matches, with five wins and a 15-2 scoring margin. They’re getting major attacking contributions from old stars (Alejandro Grimaldo, Patrik Schick) and new ones (Malik Tillman, Ibrahim Maza).
Why they won’t: Duels, duels, duels. As the game trends toward more physicality and the importance of individual duels, it’s probably important to note that Leverkusen were 32nd in the league phase in duel attempts and 30th in win percentage. They do not take the fight to opponents, they commit far more high turnovers than they force, and they haven’t been great on set pieces, scoring few in the Champions League and allowing too many in the Bundesliga.
This is more of a finesse team, and the competition will grow more physical from here.
GalatasarayAverage title odds: 0.2%
Next opponent: Juventus (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Victor Osimhen has been biding his time. With the former Napoli hero up front and complemented by big names such as Leroy Sané, Mauro Icardi and Ilkay Gündogan, Galatasaray sure seem to have a lot of potential in attack. But they scored just one goal in their last four league phase matches. Osimhen scored six of their seven goals in three early wins, but in his past three UCL matches he has attempted just eight shots worth 0.5 xG and hasn’t scored. Icardi and Gündogan (combined: 1.5 xG, zero goals) struggled to contribute in the league phase, and Sané is racing to come back from a recent ankle injury.
As Osimhen goes, so go Gala, and for what it’s worth, Osimhen’s form seems to be improving rapidly. He has scored in his past three domestic matches, and going back to his time at AFCON, he has scored six goals in eight matches in all competitions. If he gets going, look out.
Why they won’t: They can’t keep opponents out of their box. The Gala attack have to be good, otherwise their defensive shortcomings are laid bare. They gave up only 11 goals in the league phase (11th), but they allowed shots worth 13.7 xG (25th) at 0.18 xG per shot (30th), and opponents were permitted to attempt 74% of their shots in the box (33rd). Goalkeeper Ugurcan Çakir has done his part, but they risk getting deluged against strong attacks.
MonacoAverage title odds: 0.2%
Next opponent: PSG (playoff round)
Why they won’t win it all: Form matters. For Monaco, we’ll start with the negatives. They enter the knockout rounds having won just twice in their past eight matches. They have more multigoal losses in 2026 (four) than wins (two), and one of those wins was against a third-division team in the Coupe de France. They replaced Adi Hutter with Sebastien Pocognoli in October, but the results have gotten worse since — they lost seven of eight Ligue 1 matches at one point and are currently eighth in that table.
They backed into the knockout rounds with a 0-0 draw against Juventus, and now have to play the defending Champions League winners. Yikes.
Why they will: All they need is some finishing. We’re not used to attack being an issue for a Monaco club that have boasted an endless list of great forwards through the years. But the single biggest issue for the club this season is that none of their current attackers can actually stick the ball into the net. In all competitions, Folarin Balogun has scored eight goals from shots worth 11.6 xG (underachievement of 3.6 goals), Maghnes Akliouche has scored four from shots worth 9.1 (a ghastly minus-5.1), and Monaco as a whole have underachieved against their xG totals by 14.4 goals.
If the god of xG and finishing is kinder to them, they’re not that bad a team. In fact, they proved that in their only matchup with PSG this year, in which they won 1-0 in defiance of xG (xG for the match: PSG 1.3, Monaco 0.6).
Club BruggeAverage title odds: 0.1%
Next opponent: Atlético Madrid (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: When it works, it works. Club Brugge aren’t strangers to European success. They reached the Champions League round of 16 in 2022-23 and 2024-25, with a Conference League semifinal run in between, and their brightest moments in this campaign have been ridiculously bright: They beat Monaco, Kairat Almaty and Marseille by a combined 11-2 and drew with Barca in a 3-3 thriller. They understand their limitations and play a pretty mean counterattacking game at times, with Hans Vanaken and Carlos Forbs combining for four goals and six assists in the league phase and nine guys scoring at least once.
Against a scary-but-inconsistent Atlético team, they’ll be confident in their plan of action.
Why they won’t: When it doesn’t, it doesn’t. Those four league-phase performances were impressive, but in their other four Champions League matches this season (against Bayern, Arsenal, Atalanta and Sporting), they were pounded by a combined score of 12-1. If you don’t let them establish a decent vertical game and you break even against them in the set piece department, they don’t really have anything scary to offer.
Bodo/GlimtAverage title odds: 0.1%
Next opponent: Inter Milan (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Why the heck not? After taking two points from their first five matches, Bodo/Glimt managed a 2-2 tie at Borussia Dortmund, thumped Manchester City at home and beat Atlético Madrid away to somehow eke out a playoff berth, and if you can take seven points from those three opponents, why couldn’t you keep the winning ways going for a little longer? They created a deluge of high-quality shots with the best counterattacks in the competition.
Jens Petter Hauge was one of the Champions League’s best players in December and January, leading his team in goals (four), chances created (20), ground duels won (52) and successful one-on-ones in the box (four) over those past three matches. This is the Norwegian offseason — the 2026 Eliteserien campaign won’t begin until mid-March — but over the past couple of seasons they’ve figured out how to make that a good thing (well rested, well prepared) instead of bad (major rust).
Why they won’t: The defense bends far too much. Among the 36 teams in the league phase, Bodo/Glimt ranked 36th in total opponent touches in the box (310), 35th in xG allowed (20.6) and 35th in shots allowed per possession (0.17). They were able to limit opponents’ shot quality to some degree, and their random bursts of defensive intensity were profitable — they scored five goals from high turnovers (including two against Atlético), behind only PSG (11) and Borussia Dortmund (six). But goalkeeper Nikita Haikin had to stand on his head at times to keep them in games, and it’ll be hard to do that for too many rounds.
OlympiacosAverage title odds: 0.1%
Next opponent: Bayer Leverkusen (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: Fierce and frantic defense. After five Champions League matches, Olympiacos had two points and had allowed 13 goals. But they were one of only six teams to sweep their last three matchdays, beating Kairat Almaty, Bayer Leverkusen and Ajax, and allowing only one goal in the process (on a penalty, no less). They established a frantic pace — they averaged 104.3 possessions per game, and no one else was over 100 — and kept opponents at arm’s length. Opponents averaged only 0.07 shots per possession (fifth) as Olympiacos defenders and defensive midfielders won 54% of duels and made nearly 85 defensive interventions per game.
Their attack is pretty basic — launch it deep and hope Mehdi Taremi or Ayoub El Kaabi can control it (or hope for a corner kick) — but if they can establish heavy tempo and win winnable duels, their hot streak might not have to end soon. They almost won at Real Madrid in the most frantic match of the league phase (a 4-3 loss).
Why they won’t: That basic attack probably won’t score. Over eight matches, Olympiacos ranked 30th in xG created (9.5) and 23rd in goals (10, three of which came in the wild Real Madrid match). Taremi gives them a known, experienced goal scorer, but their options are limited and will likely dry up pretty quickly, if not against Bayer Leverkusen, then against Bayern or Arsenal in the next round.
FK QarabagAverage title odds: <0.1%
Next opponent: Newcastle (playoff round)
Why they will win it all: They know the formula. Our longest of long shots understands the formula. They do not enter the knockout rounds in great form, but they know what they have to do to win. Looking at only when teams win or draw, Qarabag rank second in the competition in xG per shot (0.23) and a decent 14th in xG allowed per shot (0.13). They’ve attempted 78% of their shots in the box in these matches (fifth), and they’ve put 48% of their shots on target (seventh).
Green dots = goal; red dots = no goal. The larger the dot, the higher the xG, and Qarabag have created plenty of big dots
Two players will matter the most if Qarabag are to continue advancing: center forward Camilo Durán and defensive midfielder Pedro Bicalho. Duran has been fantastic in Qarabag’s four wins/draws, scoring three times with an assist and putting five of his 11 shots on target; meanwhile, in those wins and draws they rank first in pass interceptions (12.3 per game), and Bicalho has made nine in wins/draws and 14 overall. Step into passing lanes, spring quick counters and win.
Why they won’t: The formula is really hard to follow. Wins over Benfica and Eintracht Frankfurt and a stirring draw with Chelsea earned them a knockout round bid, but when they lost, they were pummeled. Their four losses — three of which came against teams that didn’t advance — came by a combined 15-3. They finished tied for 19th in points but 29th in goal differential.
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