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Each season in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true in 2026 … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring.
2025 recap
Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen scored the most fantasy points last season, despite essentially sitting in Week 18 (he left after handing off on the first play), and he enjoyed his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. … Sophomore Drake Maye was a surprise No. 2 finisher, with the 23-year-old edging out another surprise, mostly undrafted 37-year-old Matthew Stafford (leader in passing yards and passing TDs). Every year is the year to fade top quarterbacks, but especially this year. … Patrick Mahomes (knee) joined Allen, Maye and Stafford in averaging 20 points per game, but his season ended in Week 15. … Trevor Lawrence (finally) was a December star, and he finished fourth in QB scoring, thanks in part to nine rushing TDs. … Injuries knocked top-five QB selections Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow off track, forcing managers to invest in the forgotten Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett. It worked out, at least for a while.
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Caleb Williams sets club records for passing yards, TDs
Williams, who fell 58 passing yards short of becoming the first QB in Chicago Bears franchise history to reach 4,000 in a season, seizes the club records with 4,500 yards and 32 touchdown passes in 2026. Williams also rushes for seven touchdowns. He might be a top-five fantasy QB for a while.
Brock Purdy ties Burrow for the league lead in TD passes
Purdy, who averaged 19.7 fantasy points in 2025 (sixth most), ties the Cincinnati Bengals star with a league-leading 38 touchdown passes. Both QBs start all 17 games. New San Francisco 49ers WR Mike Evans might not be Ja’Marr Chase (or Tee Higgins), but he catches double-digit touchdowns when healthy.
Patrick Mahomes returns for Week 1 and plays in all 17 games
We thank him for the career-high 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns from 2025, but that doesn’t happen again. The rehabbing Kansas City Chiefs star does surpass 4,000 passing yards for the seventh season, though. New surprising backup QB Justin Fields has more rushing attempts than pass attempts and scores four rushing TDs.
Jaxson Dart throws more, runs less
The sophomore season for the New York Giants starter also looks different, with more throwing (he gets the awesome Malik Nabers back from a knee injury) and, ostensibly to keep him safer, less running. Dart’s Year 2 will not quite follow the same path as Maye’s, however.
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Tyler Shough becomes a QB1 option
The New Orleans Saints QB sure showed it during the second half of the 2025 season. Yes, Shough was a rookie, but not a young one. He is a week older than Jacksonville Jaguars five-year veteran Trevor Lawrence! Shough over Lawrence in 2026? One of them will be the bargain, and it isn’t Lawrence.
Malik Willis is efficient, but yardage and TD numbers disappoint
The Miami Dolphins’ new starting QB finishes among the leaders in completion percentage at 70%, but he barely eclipses 2,500 passing yards and double-digit touchdown passes. The Dolphins, including their new running QB, will opt to run the football — a lot!
Leaderboard is rife with NFC East QBs
All four NFC East QBs (Jalen Hurts, Daniels, Dak Prescott and Dart) finish among the top 12 at the position in fantasy points.
QB problems hit Colts
Riley Leonard starts more games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2026 than Daniel Jones.
Joe Flacco finishes off AFC North tour
With Burrow healthy for 17 games, wily veteran Flacco — who completed his (OK, our) goal of being a member of each AFC North franchise — is not needed much. But he does take a few snaps in one game, achieving the feat of playing for an entire division.
De’Von Achane had a spectacular season in 2025 and still has room to be even better. Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire2025 recapSan Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey dusted the field with 416.6 points, the 12th-most fantasy points in history. He went from a disappointing four games during the 2024 season to playing in every game last season. … Four other RBs, all popular draft-day selections, averaged 20 points per game (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane). Last year was the year to trust the top RBs. … James Cook III won the rushing title, with 32-year-old Derrick Henry not far behind. … Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty finished as borderline RB1 options, sailing past 200 points, hardly the definition of draft-day busts. … Javonte Williams resurrected his career in Dallas. … None of the 17 running backs to rush for 1,000 yards was a rookie, though several came close, and Year 2 should be much better.
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Christian McCaffrey misses four games
McCaffrey, entering his age-30 season, goes in the top three in many drafts and plays in 13 of 17 games. He is terrific in those games (21 fantasy points per game), but it is simply too risky to expect a repeat of the durability and the outstanding 102 receptions from last season.
De’Von Achane finishes as fantasy’s top player
Achane, entering his fourth season, finishes with more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns. The 2025 breakout was merely an appetizer.
Cam Skattebo scores 14 TDs
The Giants’ sophomore RB returns from his ankle injury in time for Week 1 and scores 14 touchdowns in Year 2. He ends up as the top fantasy scorer among NFC East running backs. Hmmm.
Second-year RBs break out
Skattebo and seven other exciting, second-year RBs (Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Kyle Monangai, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey and Bhayshul Tuten) sail past 1,000 rushing yards in 2026. Watch Henderson closely if the Patriots give him big volume.
Ageless Derrick Henry keeps producing
The Baltimore Ravens star rushes for 1,350 yards and 12 touchdowns, thriving yet again despite already turning 30 years old (two years ago). Few view him as an RB1 on draft day, but those who secure him after Round 2 sure love it. Again. Rinse and repeat.
J.K. Dobbins reaches 1,000 rushing yards
The Denver Broncos RB plays in 15 games, tying his career high from his rookie season, and attains his first 1,000-yard season. He averages 5.1 yards per rush.
Travis Etienne Jr. leads Saints’ backfield
Signed by the New Orleans Saints as a free agent, Etienne leads the club in rushing yards, attempts and rushing touchdowns (11). In addition, he catches more passes than incumbent star Alvin Kamara, who continues to battle injuries.
Rachaad White flirts with RB1 status
An offseason addition to the Washington Commanders’ backfield, White leads the club in rushing yards, attempts and, well, you get the picture. White catches so many passes (70 receptions!) that he threatens RB1 status, too. This will not be a running back committee.
Fantasy’s WR1 last season, Puka Nacua recorded 1,715 receiving yards despite missing one game. Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images2025 recapA late surge over the final five weeks pushed Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua into the top spot with 375 points, the 13th most in a season at the position. Nacua and Seattle Seahawks breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba were the lone WRs to score 20 points per game. … Three other WRs reached 100 catches, with Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown no surprise, but Chris Olave (the No. 39 WR in ADP) sure was. … Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill each played in only four games. … George Pickens outscored Dallas Cowboys teammate CeeDee Lamb. … Davante Adams paced WRs with 14 TDs in his first season with the Rams. … Carolina Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan was one of 19 WRs to reach 1,000 receiving yards, but he was the lone rookie, as Emeka Egbuka sputtered in December. … Veteran Mike Evans (only eight games) failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time in 12 seasons. … Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson made it for the sixth consecutive season, while Jaguars bust Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t come close.
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Puka Nacua chases 2K again
Nacua makes another run at 2,000 receiving yards. He averaged 107 yards per game last season and missed one game. To reach 2,000 yards, he would need to average 118 yards for 17 games.
Luther Burden III breaks out
The Chicago Bears sophomore wide receiver breaks out with 78 catches, 1,178 receiving yards and eight TDs, threatening for WR1 status. Rome Odunze has his best season as well and is a worthy WR3.
Mike Evans returns to typical form
A healthy Evans, in his age-33 season but now starring for the 49ers, plays in 15 games and surpasses 1,000 receiving yards for the 12th time in his 13 seasons. Yeah, some of us are still bitter about the 2025 season. New colleague Ricky Pearsall also slips past 1,000 receiving yards for the first time.
Jaguars’ trio of WRs are all fantasy relevant
Three Jacksonville Jaguars become relevant WR3/4 options, ending up between 750 and 900 receiving yards, but like the Packers WRs of recent times, frustrated fantasy managers will always be guessing when to start them. Thomas bounces back to lead the way, followed by Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.
Christian Watson reaches 1,000 yards
Watson becomes the first Green Bay Packers WR not named Davante Adams to reach 1,000 receiving yards since Jordy Nelson in 2016.
Michael Wilson outperforms Marvin Harrison Jr. … again
Wilson, after outshining the highly touted Harrison last season, goes later than Harrison in 2026 drafts and outscores him again. Both Arizona Cardinals receivers reach 1,000 receiving yards, though.
Garrett Wilson finishes as a top-five wide receiver
A healthy Wilson, even with Geno Smith at QB for the New York Jets, registers a career-best 1,200 receiving yards and finishes as the No. 4 fantasy WR. Remember, Smith reached 4,320 passing yards for the 2024 Seahawks, and Smith-Njigba caught 100 passes for 1,130 yards. It can be done.
Colston Loveland really broke out in the playoffs and has future fantasy star written all over him. Ben Hsu/Icon Sportswire2025 recapCardinals star Trey McBride, aiming to prove the six touchdowns over his first three seasons didn’t define him, scored a whopping 11 times in 2025, to go with 126 receptions and 1,239 yards. He outscored all but eight flex-eligible options and finished ahead of No. 2 TE Kyle Pitts Sr. by 105.1 points! … Pitts, thanks in part to a 45.6-point monstrosity in Week 15, enjoyed his best season, though many fantasy managers remained unconvinced. … Managers doubted aging legend Travis Kelce, but he finished third in TE scoring, a shade ahead of the top rookie, Tyler Warren. … Preseason No. 1 Brock Bowers — who, like Pitts, was buoyed by one aberrant outing, scoring 43.3 points in Week 9 — was hampered by a knee issue and disappointed overall. … Bowers, George Kittle and Tucker Kraft each averaged 14.7 points, second to McBride, but they combined to miss 20 games.
Colston Loveland and Harold Fannin Jr. are the future at tight end
Loveland became the first rookie TE to lead a playoff team in receiving yards since Keith Jackson with the 1988 Eagles. Fannin easily led his non-playoff team with 731 yards. Loveland and Fannin are top-five TEs in 2026 and arguably the top dynasty options.
Chiefs TEs haul in 15 touchdown grabs!
Kelce, in his final NFL season, remains a borderline TE1 option, thanks to 10 touchdown grabs, but keep an eye on Noah Gray, as he breaks out with 48 receptions and offers dynasty value.
Isaiah Likely shines for Giants
The former Baltimore Ravens TE makes 72 catches and surpasses 800 receiving yards. We are all-in for the Likely breakout with the New York Giants.
Dalton Kincaid is Allen’s favorite end zone target
Even with WR DJ Moore arriving in trade from the Bears, the top pass-catching touchdown option for Josh Allen’s Bills is Kincaid, just like in 2025. Kincaid enjoys his best season yet with 850 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
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