The big news in Major League Baseball over the weekend was the New York Yankees ruling out three-time American League MVP Aaron Judge for at least 4-6 weeks because of a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side. The timing of that injury news meant I couldn’t get to that impact on the AL MVP odds board, but my cohort Brandon Gustafson broke that down. Judge basically moved from the -110 favorite to +8000 for the award.
Trail Matt Severance’s picks at FanDuel, where new users can get $350 in bonus bets:
So while I won’t need to go into any more on Judge, I will look at the newly improved MVP chances for the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez ahead of Houston’s series-opening game at the Los Angeles Angels tonight, with a first pitch set for 9:38 ET.
If a hitter wins the Triple Crown (leading the AL or NL in batting average, home runs and RBI), he obviously should win league MVP honors. MLB has had 10 players win a total of 12 Triple Crowns since RBI became an official statistic in 1920. The last was Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera in 2012 in taking the first of consecutive MVP awards. Cabrera is a lock first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2029 and might become the second-ever unanimous MVP after former New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera in 2019.
Before Cabrera, the last Triple Crown was by Boston Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and there hasn’t been one in the National League since Joe Medwick in 1939. The Astros spent years in the Senior Circuit before moving to the AL in 2013. They have never had a Triple Crown winner, but Alvarez could be in position to change that without a Judge threat.
The closest any Astros player has come to winning it was in Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell’s 1994 NL MVP season, when he was second in the NL in batting average (a whopping .368, but Tony Gwynn hit .394) and home runs (39; Matt Williams hit 43) and first in RBI. The only other time a Houston guy finished in the top five in all three Triple Crown categories was Alvarez in 2022, when he was third in homers (37, Judge led with 62), fourth in batting average (.306; Luis Arraez led at .316) and fifth in RBI (97; Judge led with 131).
Alvarez is second in the AL in average at .316 (Tampa Bay’s Yandy Diaz leads at .325) while leading in homers (22) and RBI (48). It could be that teammate Christian Walker keeps Alvarez from the Triple Crown, as Walker is only two back in RBI. And I somewhat doubt Alvarez leads in average, but I think he will in homers with Judge out and current second-place Munetaka Murakami (20) of the Chicago White Sox also out for weeks with an injury.
To lead the majors in homers, Alvarez is the +240 second favorite behind the Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (-165), who leads with 23. I haven’t seen any books post Triple Crown odds but would imagine they will as we get deeper into the season as long as Alvarez is still contending in all three categories.
Bet on MLB action at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets after placing a first wager.
Alvarez has moved from +320 for AL MVP before the Judge news to +150 at DraftKings, sitting behind Kansas City Royals second baseman Bobby Witt Jr., who went from +290 to +140. I don’t think Witt should be favored, as while he’s having a solid year hitting .280 with nine homers and 27 RBIs, the Royals are way under .500 and tied for last in the AL Central. Witt also left Sunday’s game because of right knee soreness so that’s something to monitor.
The Astros have been a bit better than the Royals at 30-37 and should improve once ace Hunter Brown gets healthy – injuries have been an issue all year. The franchise’s two league MVP winners were Bagwell in that ’94 campaign and Jose Altuve in 2017. Most awards bettors tend to prefer guys on contending teams. But, again, if Alvarez wins the Triple Crown then it probably wouldn’t matter if Houston finished 20 games under. 500 in terms of his MVP chances.
As for tonight’s game in Anaheim, the Angels are starting struggling righty and Houston native Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 9.50 ERA), a one-time mega-prospect for the Orioles whose career had been derailed by injuries – he missed all of 2025. Rodriguez, acquired in an offseason trade from the O’s for outfielder Taylor Ward (who hasn’t been that great either), has made four starts this year and allowed at least four runs in three, including seven earned runs exactly in two of them.
Rodriguez has yielded four homers, and Alvarez is priced +230 to go yard, though he is 0-for-5 career off the pitcher with two strikeouts. Not sure if I will have a play on the side, as I generally like home teams, but I certainly am not backing Rodriguez.
Houston righty Spencer Arrighetti has been shockingly good at 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA. But those numbers surely are not sustainable for the 26-year-old, and he’s not even on the AL Cy Young odds board at DraftKings or FanDuel.
