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The United States and Canada are on opposite sides of the 2026 Olympic men’s hockey tournament bracket, meaning their next battle would have to be for the gold medal.
Will that happen? Now that the qualification round is over, the road there is a lot tougher for one of them than the other.
Here’s how I see the Olympic men’s medal round shaking out, with one big upset and some great hockey to be witnessed. Stats are courtesy of HockeyStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Let’s see if there will be a Canada vs. U.S. party … or if another country will play spoiler.
No. 1 Canada vs. No. 8 CzechiaMartin Necas had a great comment after the Czechs won their qualification round game against Denmark: “We let them win the first one because we knew we were not going to win two in a row against Canada.”
Now that’s the spirit!
Necas has been awesome for Czechia. The Colorado Avalanche winger’s seven points through four games ties him with Jaromir Jagr (seven in 2006) for the second most by a Czech player in a single Olympic tournament. He’s one point behind Martin Straka (eight in 2006) for the record. The question is whether Necas, or any of his teammates, will generate a goal against Canada, because even one would be an improvement over their first meeting.
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Canada shut out Czechia 5-0 in the opening game of Group A. The Czechs played them tough for 19 minutes, 54 seconds before Macklin Celebrini scored on that perfect tip of a Cale Makar shot to break their will at the end of the first period. Eventually, it was all Canada, outshooting the Czechs 14-3 in the third period.
It has been interesting to see how the Czechs have evolved since that loss. Coach Radim Rulik loaded up his top line with their three best scorers in the opening game: Necas, center Tomas Hertl (Vegas Golden Knights) and winger David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins). In their qualification-round win over Denmark, Rulik had each on their own line. Pastrnak’s line with captain Roman Cervenka produced a goal, as did Necas’ line with David Kampf. Necas also scored his second power-play goal of the tournament with the same one-timer blast from the circle. If nothing else, this Czech team is now better balanced.
Their defense corps is filled with NHL veterans, but not much in the way of offensive potency — there’s a reason why the Canadians hit Filip Hronek every chance they had in their first matchup. Goalie Lukas Dostal made 24 saves against Denmark and held his own against Canada for a good portion. The Anaheim Ducks’ netminder has what it takes to steal a game in the Olympics. To do so against Team Canada’s preposterously deep group of forwards, which include the tournament’s leading scorer in Connor McDavid (nine points in three games), would be the hockey equivalent of robbing the vault of the Bellagio, the Mirage and the MGM Grand on a fight night.
WINNER: Canada. Fans with long memories might shudder at Canada playing the Czechs, who infamously eliminated the Canadians in a medal round shootout in 1998, the first Olympics with NHL players. History will not repeat itself, even if Necas & Co. have lulled Canada into a false sense of security.
The Swedes have been trending in a scary direction for the Americans over the past two games. They took over their game against Slovakia over the last two periods in the group-play finale, earning a qualification round date against Latvia. And then they dispatched Latvia with relative ease to set up perhaps the Americans’ toughest challenge as the U.S. looks to earn a rematch with Canada.
The Swedes have scorers who can be opportunistic if not overwhelming in the same way Canada and the U.S. are. Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles Kings), William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) and Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) are all adept at finding the back of the net. Elias Pettersson has been great, in contrast with his regular season with the Vancouver Canucks.
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Where the Americans have the advantage is at center, where Sweden really misses having a player such as Leo Carlsson, who missed the Olympics because of injury.
The biggest concern for Team USA in this draw is Sweden’s defense, which is second only to the Americans in quality depth. Victor Hedman (Tampa Bay Lightning), Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo Sabres), Gustav Forsling (Florida Panthers), Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Toronto Maple Leafs), Philip Broberg (St. Louis Blues) and Hampus Lindholm (Boston Bruins) … is a group that can score and play shutdown and be physical. In other words, it’s a group that can very much handle what the Americans can throw at them.
Also concerning: Sweden might have found its goaltender in Jacob Markstrom, who has been solid in their past two games but will be playing on back-to-back days should he get the nod against the U.S.
There are two things the U.S. will need to excel at to beat the Swedes. The first is managing the puck. The Swedes are too opportunistic to turn the puck over in the defensive or neutral zones. The Americans have been pretty good with this during the tournament. The other imperative is physicality and antagonism. This needs to be a game where the line of Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, and center Jack Eichel create chaos in the Swedish zone — before and after the whistle.
WINNER: United States. As good as they’ve looked in the past two games, there still seems as if something is off about this Swedish team. Too often the Swedes play like a collection of disparate parts looking for cohesion. If they find that against the U.S., this could be trouble for the Americans.
The key will be the first period: Team USA has started slowly in group play. They can’t give a veteran team like this any confidence with an early lead. Ultimately, the Americans’ offensive depth wins out. But it would not be a surprise to see Sweden ruin the U.S. vs. Canada rematch party, and relish that it did.
Greg Wyshynski breaks down the U.S. men’s hockey team’s potential path to Olympic gold.
Germany built a 3-0 lead over France in the first period of their qualification-round game, then got bored and played passive the rest of the way, with the French holding a 27-23 advantage in shots on goal in the final two periods. Germany had only one win in Group C play — over Denmark — but had the tiebreakers to earn the second-highest seed behind the U.S.
Unlike a lot of midtier teams in the tournament, Germany actually has two lines that might concern opposing defenses. Edmonton Oilers star and noted “bridesmaid” Leon Draisaitl centers Lukas Reichel (Vancouver Canucks, now in the AHL) and Draisaitl’s childhood best friend Frederik Tiffels of the Berlin Polar Bears, which might be one of the most adorable combination of words we’ve written about the tournament. Tiffels has a goal and two assists in four games.
Ottawa Senators star Tim Stutzle centers the other line, and was tied for the tournament lead in goals (four) after four games. JJ Peterka of the Utah Mammoth, who’s had a really strong tournament, is on his right and Joshua Samanski, in the Edmonton Oilers’ system, is on the other wing.
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Defenseman Moritz Seider is a Norris Trophy contender for the Detroit Red Wings, and has been an absolute rock for the Germans on the blue line, the only player over 100 minutes in total ice time through four games.
Seattle Kraken goalie Philipp Grubauer was fourth in goals saved above average (2.14) and sixth in save percentage (.934) through three starts, although he didn’t face Team USA. He has been arguably the comeback player of the year in the NHL statistically. Without question, he is one of those goalies who could lead an upset on the right day.
Whether Grubauer can stop Juraj Slafkovsky is immaterial, because no one can stop Juraj Slafkovsky. The Slovak winger has three goals and three assists in three games, giving him 10 goals in his past 10 Olympic games. I angered some Montreal Canadiens fans by saying that Slafkovsky goes “beast mode” in the Olympics because they argued he has been that good lately in the NHL (25 points in 23 games), which is the first time I’ve insulted a player by claiming he elevates his game on the most important stage. (Insert shrug emoji.)
Slafkovsky and his center Adam Ruzicka are two of three players with multiple goals for Slovakia, the other being third-liner Dalibor Dvorsky. Former NHL player Tomas Tatar, who has played with Slafkovsky, has one assist in three games.
This game boils down to whether Slovak goalie Samuel Hlavaj can keep the dam from breaking again. A minor leaguer for the Minnesota Wild, he made 46 saves against Sweden and 39 saves against Finland. He’s third in the tournament in goals saved above average (2.14). Then again, Germany isn’t the same shot-attempt generating team that the Swedes and Finns are, at least in this tournament.
WINNER: Germany. I’m underestimating Slovakia at my own peril, I’m sure.
It’s not exactly easy to get a handle on the Finns after group play. They were humbled by Slovakia in the opening game 4-1. They did the humbling of archrival Sweden (4-1) in a physically taxing game. Then they made Italy briefly regret hosting the tournament with an 11-0 humiliation that saw them pump 62 shots on goal.
So who are the Finns? I think they’re the team we saw against Sweden: a pesky, physical group that spreads out its scoring. There were 12 Finland players who earned a point against the Swedes; 14 players had at least a point against the Italians. It’s a team that has gotten as many points out of Joel Armia and Kaapo Kakko (four) as it has out of Mikko Rantanen.
Finland has two extremely solid defense pairings, including one of the best in the NHL: Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, as the Dallas Stars score 58.4% of the goals when they’re on the ice together. The Florida Panthers’ Niko “The Condor” Mikkola and Philadelphia Flyers blueliner Rasmus Ristolainen get the second-most ice time.
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Juuse Saros has not had a good NHL season with the Nashville Predators, but he has had a very good Olympics so far for Finland: .946 save percentage and 2.62 goals saved above expected. He stopped 34 of 35 against Sweden, which is no small feat.
But if we’re talking underappreciated goaltending performances, then we’re talking about Switzerland’s Leonardo Genoni. He has stopped 76 of 79 shots for the best save percentage (.962) and goals saved above expected (4.07) through the qualification round. Genoni was the key in allowing the Swiss to rally against the Czechs, which was a critical overtime win that matched them against Italy in the qualification round.
The Swiss generate a good number of shot attempts and high-danger chances with an offense led by Timo Meier (seven points in three games); like Team USA’s Jack Hughes, Meier is playing so well that it has made people wonder what’s preventing that from happening with the New Jersey Devils. His Devils teammate Nico Hischier (four points) has been good, while the Swiss have gotten scoring from the back end thanks to Nashville’s Roman Josi (four points) and Tampa Bay’s J.J. Moser (four points).
They will of course miss winger Kevin Fiala, as the Los Angeles Kings star was injured in their loss to Canada and is expected to sit out the rest of the NHL season.
WINNER: Finland. This could end up being the best game of the quarterfinals, but I’ll take the Finns’ depth advantages and ability to lock it down defensively.
Keep in mind that the Olympic hockey tournament is bracketed through the quarterfinals, but then protects its highest seed in the semifinals. Hence, Canada gets the lowest seed still alive in the tournament, which is Germany.
The Germans played the tournament’s other hockey superpower, the United States, in Group C play and lost 5-1 after going down 5-0. They played the Americans tough in the first 19:51 of the game until Zach Werenski’s disheartening goal late in the first period. But Team USA’s depth really took over in the second period, and Germany’s lack of quality depth beyond its few NHL standouts really stood out.
Which is to say that this team isn’t equipped to be the one that takes down Canada.
This forward group for Canada is one of the greatest assemblages of talent the Olympics have ever seen:
Line 1: Macklin Celebrini-Connor McDavid-Tom Wilson. The tournament’s leading scorer flanked by the San Jose Sharks’ young superstar and the Washington Capitals’ ruffian who earned an Olympic “Gordie Howe Hat Trick” against France: a goal, assist and a fight.
Line 2: Brandon Hagel-Nathan MacKinnon-Nick Suzuki. Two fantastic two-way forwards surrounding the offensive force of nature from the Avalanche, who has two goals and three assists in the tournament.
Line 3: Mitch Marner-Sidney Crosby-Mark Stone. This team has Crosby on its third line.
Line 4: Whoever-Sam Bennett-Sam Reinhart. Brad Marchand, Seth Jarvis, Bo Horvat … whoever Jon Cooper decides to slot next to the Florida Panthers’ dynamic duo, Canada’s good.
And don’t even get me started on their power play.
WINNER: Canada. The spoils go to the team with the perfect record and the best goal differential in group play. Canada rolls to the gold medal game.
How else will the United States get its proper fill of Miracle on Ice-like “overcoming insurmountable odds to play for gold” if not by facing Sweden and then Finland, considered the tournament’s third- and fourth-best teams?
If they get past the Swedes and Germany in fact upsets Slovakia, then the Americans will face the Finns for the right to play for gold. And based on Olympic history, this is not who they want to face. Finland knocked the U.S. out in the quarterfinals in Turin 2006 and won the bronze medal over the Americans in Sochi 2014 after the U.S. blew its game vs. Canada in the semifinals. (The U.S. did thump them 6-1 in the Vancouver 2010 semifinals scoring six times in the first period.)
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To state the obvious: This matchup would be a lot more intriguing if Finland had star center Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers, who has sat out the entire NHL season so far after preseason knee surgery. His leadership, his will to win, his defensive game, the way the rest of the lineup would settle in behind him … what could have been.
Still, the Finns are going to be a tough out for the Americans. They’re a tenacious group that is unfazed by a talent disparity on the roster sheet — true to form, they welcome it and thrive under those expectations. The Finns have a few defenseman who can handle the American forecheck and some grinding forwards who aren’t looking for style points when scoring. They also have Rantanen, one of the players in this tournament who could power his team’s offense alone.
There’s going to be a moment in the quarterfinals or semifinals when the Americans find themselves trailing in the second half of a game, facing a team with growing belief and a goaltender that is shutting the door. And it’s in that moment they will either earn their rematch against the Canadians or squander the chance. Finland always makes you earn it.
WINNER: United States. Unless they’re looking ahead so intently that they miss the Finns like Jeremy Swayman facing a shot from center ice, Team USA advances to play for gold.
Emily Kaplan speaks with Jake Sanderson, Clayton Keller and Brock Faber after the U.S. men’s hockey team finishes group play undefeated.
Finland is really good at two things: Finding time for the sauna and winning Olympic men’s hockey medals. Since 1994, no country has collected more of them in this tournament. Finland won gold in Beijing (2022) and silver in Turin (2006). They won bronze in 1994, 1998, 2010 and 2014.
WINNER: Finland. The trend continues here, as Finland’s depth and defense handle Germany’s two potent lines with Draisaitl and Stutzle. Prepare the fountains in Helsinki for dancing.
All due respect to the other contenders and the potential Cinderellas, but anything less than the next chapter of this epic rivalry playing out for Olympic gold would be a crime against hockey.
Both teams are different than the ones that battled in that overtime classic to end the 4 Nations Face-Off with McDavid’s goal and Canada’s celebration. The Canadians didn’t have Celebrini, brilliant young scorer, and Wilson — Tkachuk brothers countermeasure — on their top line. They didn’t have Logan Thompson, giving them a viable goaltending option should their faith in Jordan Binnington wobble.
But the Americans have the greater improvements, starting with a healthy Quinn Hughes, the Minnesota Wild defenseman who missed 4 Nations because of injury. Forward Tage Thompson, who was only an injury replacement at 4 Nations, gives the U.S. a forward with size and offensive punch. They’ll have a healthy Matthew Tkachuk, who didn’t play in the third period or overtime in the 4 Nations finale because of injury.
Perhaps most critically, they’ll have four lines that can match the incredible depth of Canada’s forward group. That’s thanks to the most important development of group play: the way Brock Nelson and Jack Hughes clicked on their fourth line. Hughes is a center playing the wing. He looked overwhelmed and lost in 4 Nations. He looks like Patrick Kane 2.0 in the Olympics, and has formed a trio with Nelson and J.T. Miller that has been the Americans’ best line at times on a team that also features Eichel in between Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews centering their second line.
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The U.S. path to victory is closing off the Canadian path to the attacking zone. The Americans have the best defense corps in the tournament, filled with great skaters and puck movers like Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Werenski. They have forwards who can win the neutral zone and grind out shifts in the offensive zone. GM Bill Guerin built this team not to win gold but to beat Canada, knowing the latter probably had to happen to accomplish the former.
These are two teams filled with stars, but the Americans don’t have Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon. (Whether they have a Cale Makar proxy depends on where you are on the Quinn Hughes vs. Makar debate.)
They also don’t have Sidney Crosby, who has two Olympic gold medals and went through the Americans both times to win them. When adversity hits, there’s a reason Crosby wears the C. Overall, experience is the point of demarcation between these two teams. The Americans have three players with Stanley Cup rings. Canada has 12 of them, along with Olympic gold for Crosby and defenseman Drew Doughty. Of these two teams, there no question which one is more unflappable.
WINNER: United States. This victory has been decades in the making. That’s how long it has taken for the Americans to fill their talent pool to Canada’s levels.
It happened because of the growth of hockey’s popularity — fueled by the NHL’s expansion into “nontraditional” hockey markets — that produced players such as Matthews (Arizona) and Jack Hughes (Florida) alongside players from hockey hotbeds like Minnesota. It happened because there are better athletes playing hockey, who are being developed through an improved USA Hockey pipeline.
These aren’t players inspired by the Miracle on Ice — although they like watching Kurt Russell play Herb Brooks on the bus during youth hockey road trips. These are player who wanted to be Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby, but most importantly be Patrick Kane beating Sidney Crosby.
And so in the gold medal game of the 2026 Olympics, the Americans finally plant their flag for hockey supremacy, justified by world juniors wins and world championship success and, finally and most satisfyingly, defeating the Canadians on Olympic ice for the first time in the medal round during the NHL participation era.
It won’t be a “miracle.” It won’t be an underdog story made into a Disney movie. It’ll be a hard-earned win in a battle of equals, a battle that’s sure to continue beyond this Olympics.
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