What could a Tarik Skubal trade look like? Landing spots, the history of rental aces and more to know

Less than six weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow, Detroit Tigers ace and reigning two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal returned to the mound this past Saturday. Similar surgeries typically come with a 2-3 month rehab, but Skubal underwent a new and less invasive procedure — the NanoScope — that significantly reduced his rehab. He’s the first pitcher to have the NanoScope procedure and it could be a game-changer.

“I think just the next day, I started to feel better,” Skubal mentioned soon after surgery. “From other surgeries I’ve had in the past, you’re in a cast and you can’t move your arm. This one, I wasn’t in one. I was in an arm sleeve and actually encouraged to get back range of motion as fast as I can. Within about 3-4 days, I think, we got there, and I think that was very encouraging.”

In his first game back, Skubal more or less looked like a rusty version of himself, striking out four Cleveland Guardians in 4 ⅔ innings. He threw 80 pitches and was on a strict pitch limit after throwing 54 pitches in his lone minor-league rehab start. The Tigers will gradually build him back up to around 100 pitches. For now, they’ll take what they can get because Skubal on a pitch limit is better than most starters, and is certainly better than Detroit’s other rotation options.

“It was a good day,” Skubal mentioned after Saturday’s start (via MLB.com). “I don’t really want to play into that narrative of trying to be back. I need to be better, and that’s plain and simple. I think if I’m just happy to be here, that’s kind of a loser mentality to me. I need to go out there and pitch and compete and give our team a chance to win, and I just didn’t do that today.”  

The Tigers went 14-25 during Skubal’s absence and the offense is to blame, not the pitching. Detroit averaged only 3.85 runs per game during those 39 games, and 20 times they scored no more than three runs. Their 4.26 runs allowed per game during that stretch isn’t great, but it’s certainly not so bad that it should sink your season. On the day Skubal returned, the Tigers were 5 ½ games out of a wild-card spot with seven teams ahead of them. They dug themselves an awfully big hole.

Skubal has been speculated as a trade candidate since the offseason, long before we knew the Tigers would start the season so poorly, and the trade chatter will only heat up in the coming weeks until the trade deadline on Aug. 3. That gives the Tigers less than two months to get their season back on the rails, get into the postseason race, and justify keeping Skubal at the deadline. For sure, though, Skubal’s status will be the single biggest MLB storyline between now and Aug. 3.

With the caveat that the Tigers could still turn the corner and climb back into the postseason race, let’s now break down a possible Skubal trade, including what Detroit can expect in return and which teams could pursue him.

Why would the Tigers trade Skubal?

The short version is the Tigers are far out of postseason contention and don’t want to risk losing Skubal for nothing if he leaves as a free agent after the season. The long version is the Tigers are one of the worst-hitting teams in the sport, which has caused them to bomb out of the postseason race, and it’s an open secret they won’t pay the price to keep Skubal in Detroit long-term. So, rather than lose him for nothing but a compensation pick after the season, they’ll trade him at the deadline for multiple young players/prospects.

I’m certain the Tigers want to get back in the postseason race, keep Skubal and make a run with him. For that to happen, the Tigers have to go on a heater immediately and stay on it right through the trade deadline. They’re 8-4 in their last 12 games and they probably need to go something like 25-15 or even 30-10 in their 40 games before the deadline to seriously entertain keeping Skubal. Bottom line, the Tigers may trade Skubal because the team has underperformed expectations this season.

What might a trade look like?

Trades involving a pitcher like Skubal, a Cy Young winner who will be a free agent after the season, are rare, but they’re not unprecedented. It’s instructive to look back at similar trades to get an idea of what the Tigers could expect to get back in a Skubal trade. And you know what? It’s not great. Rental aces haven’t fetched enormous returns at the trade deadline, historically. I see four such trades in the last 20 years. Let’s go through them chronologically. (Baseball America’s rankings used for prospects.)

July 7, 2008: CC Sabathia to the Brewers

Brewers received	Cleveland received
CC Sabathia	1B Matt LaPorta
	LHP Zach Jackson
	RHP Rob Bryson
	Player to be named later

LaPorta was a top-25 prospect in baseball at the time, in an era when the industry overvalued righty-hitting first basemen with power but less-than-stellar plate discipline. He appeared in parts of four seasons with the Brewers and never hit much (career 92 OPS+). Jackson had been an up-and-down depth arm with the Brewers and he didn’t do much with Cleveland. He had a 6.11 ERA in 12 appearances spanning 2008-09. Bryson never reached MLB and only barely reached Triple-A.

The best player Cleveland received in the Sabathia trade was the player to be named later: Michael Brantley. Brantley was officially added to the trade in October 2008, and was a top-10 prospect in Milwaukee’s system at the time. He played parts of 10 seasons with Cleveland, went to three All-Star Games, and finished third in the 2014 American League MVP voting. Bryson, Jackson, and LaPorta did not work out at all for Cleveland. The player to be named later salvaged the trade on their end.

Sabathia, meanwhile, almost single-handedly dragged the Brewers to their first postseason appearance in a quarter-century. He averaged 7.7 innings in 17 starts with Milwaukee, pitched to a 1.65 ERA, and even got some MVP and Cy Young votes despite spending only half the season in the National League. Sabathia was added to the Brewers’ Wall of Honor earlier this year. Do the Brewers regret parting with those four players in the trade? As good as Brantley was, not a chance.

July 29, 2010: Cliff Lee to the Rangers

Rangers received	Mariners received
LHP Cliff Lee	1B Justin Smoak
RHP Mark Lowe	RHP Blake Beavan
	RHP Josh Lueke
	IF Matt Lawson

The Rangers outbid the New York Yankees at the 11th hour to get Lee just before the deadline. They surrendered one of baseball’s 15 best prospects (Smoak) and two of their 20-ish best prospects (Beavan and Lueke) in the trade. Smoak spent parts of five seasons in Seattle, didn’t hit much (97 OPS+), and was largely a disappointment. Neither Breavan nor Lueke moved the needle. Lawson never reached the big leagues and was out of baseball by 2014. The trade didn’t work out for the Mariners at all.

Lee gave the Rangers the ace they lacked, and although his 3.98 ERA in 15 regular-season starts was subpar, he was great in the postseason and helped Texas win its first-ever AL pennant. Lowe was not a throw-in either. He spent two and a half seasons with the Rangers as a trusted late-inning reliever. It’s difficult to separate out what the Rangers gave up for Lee and what they gave up for Lowe, but it doesn’t really matter. Texas does not regret this trade. Lee gave them exactly what they needed.

July 27, 2012: Zack Greinke to the Angels

Angels received	Brewers received
RHP Zack Greinke	IF Jean Segura
	RHP Ariel Peña
	RHP Johnny Hollweg

Segura was a top-50 prospect in baseball at the time of the trade. Hollweg and Peña were two of the Angels’ 10 best prospects. Compared to the Lee and Sabathia trades, the Angels gave up a really strong package for Greinke. Segura was an All-Star in 2013 and a solid player for four and a half seasons with the Brewers. Peña threw only 29 innings for Milwaukee though, and they weren’t 29 good innings (5.59 ERA). Hollweg never pitched for the Brewers and was released in 2015.

The Angels were 55-45 and in a wild-card spot on the day of the trade. They went 34-28 after the trade and missed the postseason even though Greinke pitched well. He gave the Angels a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts. Knowing what we know now, the Angels would likely take a do-over and keep Segura, but even then, Segura was not a franchise-crippling loss. The Angels were in the postseason race and added a high-end starter. It didn’t work out, but I have a hard time calling this a bad trade.

July 30, 2015: David Price to the Blue Jays

Blue Jays received	Tigers received
LHP David Price	LHP Matthew Boyd
	LHP Daniel Norris
	LHP Jairo Labourt

The ultra-rare four-lefty trade. Norris was a top-20 prospect in baseball at the time of the trade, and, like Boyd, he was basically MLB-ready. Those two stepped right into Detroit’s rotation after the trade and ultimately gave the Tigers 237 starts (158 by Boyd) and 78 relief appearances (74 by Norris) that were roughly league average. Boyd was better than that at times. They combined for over 15 WAR with Detroit. Labourt was a top-15 prospect in Toronto’s system. He reached the majors briefly in 2017.

The Blue Jays surged during the summer of 2015 and were looking to secure their first postseason berth since their back-to-back World Series wins in 1992 and 1993. Price was marvelous after the trade, averaging almost seven innings a game in 11 starts with a 2.30 ERA. The Blue Jays won the AL East for the first time since 1993 and reached the ALCS. Price did not pitch well that postseason (16 runs in 23 ⅓ innings), though I have a hard time believing the Blue Jays came to lament surrendering Boyd and Norris.

So what’s the lesson here? Those four rental ace trades suggest the Tigers can expect a top 25-ish prospect in baseball in a Skubal trade, plus two or three secondary pieces. They won’t get three top prospects and a good young MLB player, or something massive like that. Skubal’s coming off an elbow injury and you only get him for two months plus the postseason. The injury risk will be baked into the trade offers. One great prospect, several good prospects. That’s the precedent for a rental ace trade.

The great unknown here is whether the Tigers are willing to eat money to facilitate a trade. Skubal will still be owed about $9 million at the trade deadline, and several clubs will balk at that price and look elsewhere. If the Tigers are willing to pay down some or all of that $9 million, they could get more teams involved in the bidding and demand a greater return. That’s the way this works. The more money I pay, the more/better prospects you have to give up. It would behoove Detroit to eat some money.

The other unknown is what the Tigers want in a trade. Are we sure it’s prospects? Or do they want young MLB players who can step right into their roster alongside Kerry Carpenter, Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, and Framber Valdez? A package built around MLB-ready talent makes the most sense for a Tigers team that has disappointed this year, sure, but isn’t far away from contending at all. Top prospects who are years away from the big leagues may not appeal to them much.

Which teams could be interested?

Expect every contender to check in with the Tigers, including teams that are on the postseason bubble and think they’re one piece away from getting over the hump. That’s basically what the Brewers were when they acquired Sabathia, right? Depending on the money situation (i.e. if the Tigers will pay down salary), some teams will pursue Skubal more aggressively than others, and of course some teams have better prospects to offer. For sure, though, Skubal will be very in-demand if he’s made available.

Here, listed alphabetically, are the clubs that figure to show the most interest in Skubal and pursue a trade most aggressively.

Atlanta Braves: Spencer Strider just went down with another elbow issue, further thinning a rotation that is without Spencer Schwellenbach, who’s weeks away from returning from his elbow surgery. (Hurston Waldrep recently came off the injured list following his elbow surgery, and was optioned to Triple-A.) The Braves have a large NL East lead, but there are some red flags beginning to pop up, pitching-wise. Plus, pairing Skubal with Chris Sale in October would up their World Series odds quite a bit. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is unafraid to take a big swing at the deadline (he was the Blue Jays general manager when they traded for Price in 2015). I expect him to do all he can to land Skubal regardless of the status of the two Spencers.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are 38-35 despite two 10-game winning streaks, and they’re barely hanging onto a wild-card spot. If they miss the postseason this year, it might cost some folks their jobs. Chicago has needed a legitimate ace for a few years now, and they desperately need starting pitching in general with Cade Horton’s season over and Justin Steele delayed by a setback. If POBO Jed Hoyer feels he needs to get to the postseason to save his job, an overly aggressive push for Skubal, one that borders on reckless, could be in the cards.

Chicago White Sox: Wouldn’t this be fun? The White Sox have a very good and young offense and not a whole lot on the mound. Two years after losing a Modern Era-record 121 games, a postseason berth and an AL Central title (!) are within reach. I’m not sure it makes much sense for the White Sox to give up prospects to rent Skubal right now — it feels like they’re still a year away from being a serious World Series contender — but hey, why not? Young teams surprise all the time and a Skubal trade would further energize a fan base that is filling Rate Field at its highest level since 2021.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Of course the Dodgers will be involved. They already have the makings of a World Series-winning rotation (Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto), but the Dodgers never let good stand in the way of great. Besides, Glasnow (back) and Snell (same elbow surgery as Skubal) are on the 60-day injured list. Who knows how they’ll perform when they return? The Dodgers are going for a three-peat and I would expect them to pull out every stop to get it.

Milwaukee Brewers: Could you imagine facing Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski four times in a best-of-five or best-of-seven postseason series? I’m not sure a better 1-2 punch could possibly exist in 2026. For all the regular-season success, Milwaukee keeps hitting a wall in the postseason, and perhaps Skubal could help break through. They have more high-end shortstop prospects than they can fit on one roster, realistically. At minimum, putting the pedal to the floor and turning one or two of those shortstop prospects into Skubal should not be dismissed out of hand. 

New York Yankees: Cracks are starting to show in the rotation as Ryan Weathers zooms toward a career-high workload, Cam Schlittler’s fastball-heavy approach gets more predictable, and Gerrit Cole experiences the usual post-Tommy John surgery hiccups. They expect Max Fried (bone bruise in his elbow) back in the coming weeks, but I think they’ll make a serious push for Skubal anyway because a Cole/Fried/Schlittler/Skubal rotation in the postseason (in whatever order) would be awfully formidable. The clock is ticking on Aaron Judge’s (and Cole’s and Fried’s) prime. Going all-in on Skubal could very well be the plan here.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies are at the point where they might have to replace rookie Andrew Painter just to get to the postseason, and Skubal would represent a massive upgrade. Seeing Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, and Zack Wheeler six times in a best-of-seven postseason series would be a nightmare. Yes, the Phillies need outfield help more than they need another starter, but I would expect POBO Dave Dombrowski to exhaust every possibility with Skubal before the deadline.

San Diego Padres: You can never rule Padres POBO A.J. Preller out on anything, let alone a blockbuster trade. I have no idea which prospects Preller could trade, but he’s going to try for Skubal. I’m certain of it. San Diego needs offense in the worst way and that will be a focus at the deadline, for sure. The case can be made, though, that Skubal would boost their postseason odds more than adding one or two bats. They’re right on the wild-card bubble and he could push them over. Preller will try for Skubal. I can’t say I’m confident he’ll get him, but he’s going to try.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have a thing for pursuing big names, not getting them, then bragging about it after the fact. They did it with Freddie Freeman and they did it more recently with Shohei Ohtani. Their rotation, which was so good and so important to their early season success, is beginning to falter, and keeping Skubal away from the Yankees (and Blue Jays) could decide the AL East race. Trading for rental Skubal would be a very un-Rays-like move. The chances it happens are low but they aren’t zero.

Toronto Blue Jays: Max Scherzer looks like he’s at the end of the line and there are only so many Patrick Corbin innings a contender can take. Shane Bieber is nearing a return from his elbow injury, so that’ll help, but after getting so agonizingly close to a World Series title last season, I would expect the Blue Jays to push all their chips in this year. They’re trending up and starting to get healthy. Adding Skubal would make them more dangerous in the wild-card race, the AL East race, and the postseason.

There are other teams that could jump into the mix for Skubal. The Athletics are hanging around the various postseason races and perhaps they’ll swing a surprise trade for rental Skubal like they did rental Jon Lester more than a decade ago. The Baltimore Orioles could certainly use Skubal and are grinding their way back into the wild-card race. The Mariners? The Rangers? Never say never. Skubal would make every rotation better. If you’re battling for a postseason berth and you don’t at least check in with the Tigers, you’re doing yourself a disservice.