2026 U.S. Open: Experts’ picks and betting tipsplayIs Shinnecock Hills a favorable a golf course for Scottie Scheffler? (0:50)Multiple AuthorsJun 17, 2026, 08:30 AM ET
tamil yogi
The season’s third major — the U.S. Open — is at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
J.J. Spaun is the defending champion, and Rory McIlroy (Masters) and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) won the first two majors of the season. Scottie Scheffler heads to Shinnecock needing the U.S. Open to complete the career Grand Slam.
Who do our golf experts think will win? What kind of betting advice does Pamela Maldonado have?
Jump ahead to: Pamela Maldonado’s betting and fantasy advice for the week
Scottie Scheffler plays in a practice round ahead of the U.S. Open. Mike Mulholland/Getty ImagesExperts’ picksTory Cabrera: Scottie Scheffler
Here comes Scottie. The world No. 1 golfer hasn’t won in his past 11 starts, which, by his standards, is an eternity. Inconsistent iron play be damned; Scottie harnesses all of his dad energy to complete the career Grand Slam on Father’s Day.Michael Collins: Shane Lowry
Europe continues its dominance in major championships this year. Shane’s short game is a perfect fit for Shinnecock’s diabolical green complexes.
Shane Lowry enters the U.S. Open ranked No. 44 in the world. Warren Little/Getty ImagesJeff Darlington: Scheffler
Shinnecock Hills rewards patience, precision and avoiding big mistakes, which are exactly the traits that have made Scheffler the world’s most dominant player.Michael Eaves: Scheffler
The conditions should be rather challenging, and when courses play hard, Scottie often plays at his best. Plus, he’s tired of not winning. It’s his time to lift another trophy.Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy
His last missed cut at a U.S. Open came at Shinnecock in 2018 when he shot 80-70 to miss the weekend. Since then he’s finished inside the top 10 in seven of eight U.S. Opens, including second in 2023 and 2024. He has struggled a bit with accuracy off the tee this year and that won’t work at Shinnecock, but the fairways have some width and if the driver can get going, McIlroy will be in contention on Sunday.
Andy North: Scheffler
Needs to be a good iron player who can make a bunch of 3- to 8-foot putts. Can get off to a good start if the conditions are calmer Thursday morning.
Editor’s Picks
U.S. Open tiers: Ranking favorites, contenders and everyone else at Shinnecock Hills
‘I feel like I can beat anyone’: Is Jackson Koivun ready for the PGA Tour?
2026 U.S. Open: All of the news and analysis from Shinnecock Hills
Mark Schlabach: Scheffler
It’s not going to be original, but I picked Scheffler to complete the career Grand Slam before the season. There’s no reason to change my mind now. His iron play has been a little bit off this season, but he has still played consistently well. His creativity and fearlessness around the greens will pay off in a big way at Shinnecock, and he’ll make enough putts to win on his 30th birthday
Curtis Strange: Scheffler
One of world’s best and toughest tests will demand patience and talent. Scottie has both.
Paolo Uggetti: McIlroy
In recent years, the U.S. Open has become the venue that has showcased how much McIlroy’s game has evolved. Shinnecock is going to require the kind of shotmaking and experience that he has thrived on in this part of his career. If he can drive the ball well, McIlroy should be right in the mix.
Pamela Maldonado’s picks and advice for the week
Shinnecock Hills is expected to be demanding, fast and punishing, with steady winds adding another layer of difficulty throughout the week. Unlike a birdie-fest where putting can mask mistakes, this course rewards complete ball strikers who can manage ball flight, handle long-iron approach shots and avoid blowups.
With roughs that punish misses and greens that place importance on distance control, I’m prioritizing players who gain strokes from tee-to-green, hit it high enough to hold dried-out surfaces and have shown they can survive championship tests where par is a perfectly acceptable score.
The winning score in 2018 was +1. This year is unlikely to be as brutal, but if par is the mark, here’s who I’m looking at.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
My pick to win: Jon Rahm +1050
Shinnecock forces players into long-iron approach shots, often from 175 yards out. The course has long par 3s, long par 4s, elevated greens, preferred angles and recovery areas everywhere. Rahm is still one of the longest players in the field, which means he’s often hitting one less club than the rest. His swing is compact, repeatable and built around controlling his shots. I’m not worried about his T38 at the Masters because when the course becomes difficult, Rahm still looks like Rahm: execution over creativity. He’s one of the few who can win a tournament with mediocre putting, because his tee-to-green game is that overwhelming.
My favorite bet to make the Top 10: Jon Rahm +106 (with ties)
For a top 10, you need four rounds of surviving. Rahm’s recent major profile is exactly that: T2 and T8 in the PGA Championship and T7 in last year’s U.S. Open. His current game is being driven by the parts that travel well to difficult U.S. Open setups: ballstriking, position and decision making. If you’re looking for “value,” this ain’t it … but it is a fair price that’s hard to argue against. I’d rather have a Rahm Top 10 than a longer-shot outright on someone I like less.
My favorite Rory McIlroy bet: McIlroy, Russell Henley and Adam Scott Top 20 parlay +900
The placement market is a tough out for odds. Rory is +105 for a Top 10 and +205 for a Top 5. Not terrible, but also not great. My hesitation is that the evidence for the specific course isn’t strong enough to give confidence. The missed cut in 2018 is one thing, but the fact that he won Masters in back to back years because he had the luxury of making multiple trips to play and practice at Augusta in the weeks leading up to the tournament was an advantage that he doesn’t get here.
Rory McIlroy is looking to win his second U.S. Open title. Mike Mulholland/Getty ImagesSo if you’re going to take a risk, risk a little more on a calculated parlay that all three players will survive, not contend. Rory is first off the tee, second from tee-to-green and uses distance as a weapon. Scott is seventh on approach, top 20 from 200-yards out and coming into this tournament with good form.Henley is a bit more volatile. When I think of Shinnecock, I think of long irons, power and carry. I don’t equate those to Henley, but his path is elite iron play. This ticket is worth a sweat.If you want fewer variables, Rory Top 10 is the way to go.Am I betting on Scottie Scheffler? No.
To wager Scheffler, the only placement option is top 5 +105. Shinnecock is not a course where Scheffler can overwhelm the field with volume birdies. You’ll get weird bounces, firm greens and wind shifts. One round of ugly nine holes can quickly move him from second to outside the top 10. I don’t think +105 is a bad price, but if I’m asking, “Does Scottie win this tournament often enough that top 5 becomes the replacement for win equity?”… I’ll go with “no” because the course itself introduces enough randomness that he could easily finish sixth-10th. His long irons are actually pretty average, and we’ve seen him struggle most with his irons all season.
My favorite long shot: Jake Knapp Top 10 +600
The real wager would be Top 20 +255 (even +154 for a Top 30 or +110 for a Top 40), but his profile screams upside: eighth off the tee, high ball flight (land softer, making it easier to hold on these greens) and he has the distance and hits long with his irons (18th from 175 yards out). Those are legit Shinnecock traits.
I’m treating him losing 11 strokes putting at Harbour Town as an outlier, because the more interesting number was gaining nearly five strokes with his irons while his short game fell apart. His path to a top 10 is just to hit the ball so well that he doesn’t need a hot putter, and that’s what he’s capable of doing.
Other bets that stand out
Winning score UNDER 278.5 — avoid this one
I think it’s just as important to talk about wagers passed on and not just wagers … wagered. One that caught my attention was the winning score UNDER 278.5, but it’s the price keeping me away. Shinnecock is still a major championship test with thick rough, demanding green complexes and wind projected 15-18 mph for the opening rounds.
However, unlike 2018, the course doesn’t appear headed for the same baked-out, borderline unplayable conditions that produced a +1 winning score. A softer setup should allow the best players to create enough birdie chances to reach a few shots under par. The issue is the -148 price. A winning score between -1 to -3 is very much in play. I agree with the direction, but not the price tag.
Xander Schauffele Top 20 -125 (with ties)
Xander’s superpower is that he almost never completely disappears in strong-field events. He’s top 10 in all three strokes gained metrics, off the tee, tee-to-green and on approach, has solid long-iron numbers, top 12 finishes in stronger fields, including ninth at Masters. Even in a season that doesn’t feel like peak Xander capabilities, he’s still showing up in tougher events. One thing about his game, it’s solid all around, never relying on one thing to push him through. His top 10 price +175 is fair, but I’d rather take a risk on a flyer that could spike. For a Top 20, I want Xander. Reliable.
Fantasy golf
Top DFS plays
Jon Rahm $11,500: If I’m spending this week, he’s the guy. Rahm’s identity is that of Shinnecock: patience, commitment and strategic discipline. He’s top 10 off the tee, and from tee-to-green, he carries it further than almost everyone, launches it high enough to hold and has shown he can contend on difficult setups with a T7 at Oakmont and a T2 at the PGA Championship.
The plan for this week: fairway, green, two putts, move on. If I’m predicting the winner to score -1 to -3, Rahm is the type of player I want to chase that number. Of the most expensive players, Rahm’s strengths are most directly correlated.
Jackson Suber $5,600: For fantasy, you’re asking if players can survive 36 holes on a course where the cut line was +8 back in 2018. The positives for Suber: he’s 32nd from tee-to-green, 25th on approach and he has excellent recent form; two top-5 finishes in his last three starts. His profile as of late doesn’t have an obvious fatal flaw. The negative is lack of experience. His sample against major-championship fields is basically non-existent. The only U.S. Open data point we have is a 73rd place finish at Pinehurst 2024. He’s had four straight events gaining strokes off ballstriking. Is he a better player now? Did he find something? To make the cut for fantasy value is a reasonable conclusion.
Adam Scott $6,600: Fair price for a profile that fits the test far better than his salary suggests. He’s seventh on approach and top 20 from 200 yards out. Scott finished T10 at Troon, T12 at Oakmont in the past, and with some 2026 results, T12 at Muirfield and 4th at Riviera — which are more difficult courses against strong fields. Scott gets there with ballstriking, which is what I want at Shinnecock: to avoid mistakes and survive.
Top DFS fades
Cameron Young $10,500: He’s the fifth-highest-priced player. You’re paying for him to contend, not just play well. He’s almost the exact profile you’d build in a lab for a difficult major setup, but my concern is with his longer irons, as he’s more reliant on power than precision. His best golf often comes when he can overwhelm a course rather than dissect it. Above $10K, you need him to finish in the top five. I like Young the golfer this week more than I like Young at $10,500. Young in the placement market is a better fit than paying the fifth-highest salary, and hoping he returns enough points relative to the field. Does he have the game? Yes. Does he have the patience? We’ll learn a lot about him at this course.
Collin Morikawa $8,500: Elite with his irons, yes, but in his past three starts, Morikawa has been neutral with what’s supposed to be the strongest part of his game. That feels like a warning sign to me. His entire profile is built on gaining multiple strokes with his irons. If he’s merely average with approach, what’s left? He’s volatile with his putter more often than not, has lost strokes off the tee in three of his last four starts, hits short compared to almost everybody in the field and his shots don’t climb very high in the air. Shinnecock’s greens are already difficult to hold, so hitting lower on hard and fast greens creates a problem. The $8,500 price is projecting Morikawa based on what his irons usually are, not what they’ve been lately.
Rory McIlroy $12,200: Rory is really good at making magic. Shinnecock doesn’t ask for that. The recipe is far less exciting: hit fairways, control distance, fly your long irons into bounce-and-roll conditions and accept that par is a good score. Rory’s greatest strength is his ability to over power a course, cut angles and showcase his creativity. This setup rewards discipline more than imagination. For $700 less, I’d rather have Rahm’s precision than pay a premium for traits that simply may not be valuable this week.
