A sense of desperation should follow both Auburn and Texas A&M on Wednesday night as they enter SEC tilts on four-game losing streaks that are making life stressful for a pair of first-year coaches. The Tigers are playing at Mississippi State in a Quad 2 game while the Aggies are at home against Ole Miss in a Quad 3 game.
Both need to follow the lead of Georgia, which snapped out of a funk by winning at Kentucky on Tuesday night. That win bumped the Bulldogs from a No. 11 seed to a No. 10 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
The duo are only part of a large collection of SEC teams that are either on the bubble or sliding close to it. Auburn fits the latter category as it enters Wednesday night as a No. 9 seed. But if this team continues struggling down the stretch, it may head into the SEC Tournament in an uncomfortable spot.
Things are even more dire for Texas A&M, which would see its WAB (Wins Above Bubble) ranking decimated with a loss to the struggling Rebels. The Aggies don’t want to fall below 50th in that vital resume metric, but they almost certainly would with a loss. Though the Aggies are still rating well in predictive metrics under high-octane new coach Bucky McMillan, they need to start finding the win column again.
Missouri adds to Wednesday’s SEC bubble intrigue as the Tigers host No. 19 Vanderbilt. It will be a showdown between two of the conference’s most volatile teams and no sort of result in either direction would be shocking. Here is the full rundown of Wednesday’s bubble action.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s newest bracket at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action Wednesday
Texas A&M
vs. Ole Miss 7 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed
Game status: Quad 3
Texas A&M has lost four straight games, dropping from a No. 7 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology to the bubble. With a Quad 3 home loss to Ole Miss, the Aggies would likely plummet to the 52-56 range in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which is a vital resume metric used by the selection committee. For reference, the at-large team with the lowest WAB ranking last season was Xavier at No. 49. A&M still has good predictive metrics, and that could make a difference on Selection Sunday. But it needs some good old-fashioned victories down the stretch. The bleeding must stop here.
Seton Hall
vs. DePaul 8 p.m. (TRU)
Entering the day: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 3
Seton Hall can easily see the right side of the bubble from where it stands. Metrically speaking, it’s not terribly far away. The problem is simply the means of getting there. The grim reality is that the next two games (Wednesday vs. DePaul and Saturday vs. Georgetown) are Quad 3 tilts, which can do little to help the Pirates bridge the gap between Next Four Out and the Last Four In. This team will likely need to finish 4-1 — slaying either UConn or St. John’s in the process — to enter the Big East Tournament with an at-large pulse.
West Virginia
vs. Utah 8:30 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 3
West Virginia is like a child interacting with a revolving door for the first time. It just keeps going around and around while indicating no desire to actually enter or exit. How fun! Saturday’s Quad 1 road win over UCF got the Mountaineers back in the Next Four Out realm, but a home loss to Utah would erase those gains and probably even stop the revolving door for good. Where actual progress can be made is on Saturday at TCU. But a Wednesday night victory must come first.
Auburn
at Mississippi State 9 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the day: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 2
If you haven’t been dialed in on the SEC for the past couple weeks, it might be jarring to see Auburn appearing in a Bubble Watch. The Tigers beat Florida on the road, own a neutral site win over St. John’s and were ranked in the AP poll for seven straight weeks at one time. But after four straight losses, the Tigers are just 14-11 (5-7 SEC). While they are still solidly a top-40 team across all selection metrics, uncertainty around the status of leading scorer Keyshawn Hall only adds to the angst of a prolonged slide.
Saint Mary’s
at Seattle 9 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad Quad 2
This is one of two landmines that Saint Mary’s simply cannot afford to step on prior to closing the regular season with high-profile games against Santa Clara and Gonzaga next week. The Gaels still have zero Quad 1 victories and zero victories over teams in the projected field. Yet, they are top-40 in resume metrics because of a 5-1 Quad 2 mark and because they have suffered no Quad 3/4 defeats. Saint Mary’s cannot afford give the committee any reason to start asking questions about its lack of good victories.
Missouri
vs. No. 19 Vanderbilt 9 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1
Missouri is coming off a weird week in which it edged Texas A&M on the road before getting smacked at home by Texas. Now the Tigers enter a three-game stretch that will largely determine their at-large fate. It begins Wednesday against Vanderbilt, continues Saturday at Arkansas, and concludes Tuesday against Tennessee. If Missouri wins two of those three, the picture will improve. Few, if any, teams in or around the bubble have dealt with as many injuries this year as Mizzou, which is another factor to consider.
NCAA Tournament bubble
Last Four In
Saint Mary’s
Missouri
Santa Clara
TCU
First Four Out
New Mexico
Ohio State
San Diego State
VCU
Next Four Out
Cal
Oklahoma State
Seton Hall
West Virginia
