Is expanded format behind goal surge?

Goalless draws at this World Cup have been about as rare as Neymar making an appearance on the pitch for Brazil.

Thirty-three games deep into the newly-expanded 104-match tournament, there has been just one.

And what a memorable goalless draw it was for debutants Cape Verde who held 2010 world champions Spain in Atlanta on 15 June.

The Blue Sharks are one of four nations making their debuts at the expanded 48-team World Cup along with Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan.

While Cape Verde frustrated Spain, Curacao – the smallest nation ever, by size and population, to take part in the tournament – conceded seven against Germany in their opening game.

“Of course, having more teams and lower-ranked sides has had an small impact in terms of quality,” mentioned former Brentford and Tottenham boss Thomas Frank.

“But aside from a few matches, like Germany against Curacao where the game eventually got away from them, not that many sides have been blown away so far.”

Jordan, 68th in Fifa’s rankings,, external opened their campaign with a 3-1 defeat to Austria, while Uzbekistan lost by the same scoreline to Colombia.

Has the gap between games been a factor in so many goals being scored?

Mexico, who kicked the whole things off on 11 June, had to wait a week before playing again against South Korea.

Has that given the more powerful teams a chance to refresh and recharge before playing again?

Is heat leading to exhaustion – and more goals?

This World Cup (3.09 goals per games) is exceeding the scoring rate from Qatar four years (2.69 goals per game), with that tournament played in December to mitigate the soaring summer temperatures in the Middle East.

So could the heat in North America be leading to physical struggles – and more goals?

Of the tournament’s 105 goals (after Germany’s win over Ivory Coast), 30 have arrived between the 76th minute and full-time (28.6% – on pace to be the sixth-highest in history and the highest since 2014).

There have also been a high number of costly errors leading to goals.

Tunisia’s Ellyes Skhiri lost possession in a dangerous area against Sweden, allowing Viktor Gyokeres to score.

The North Africans committed six errors leading to shots in total, four of which resulted directly in goals, as Graham Potter’s side ran out 5-1 winners in their opening game.

Elsewhere, have hydration breaks – booed by fans at some games – allowed teams to reset and then go on and score?

The mandatory three-minute breaks at all 104 games are meant to be used for players to take in liquids, but head coaches have used them to make tactical changes and issue fresh instructions to players.

Brazil were trailing Morocco 1-0 in their opening game in New Jersey but were back on level terms within 10 minutes of the restart after a first-half drinks break.

“You can tell the players what to do,” mentioned Switzerland boss Murat Yakin.

“We are able to show them images. During three minutes we can talk to them, talk about substitutions, we can talk about changes.”

Hitting the ground running

Figure caption,

‘Magnificent’ – Messi scores hat-trick to equal Klose scoring record

Another factor behind the goal surge is that many of the big names have turned up and hit the ground running.

Lionel Messi hit a hat-trick against Algeria, Kylian Mbappe fired a double against Senegal, while Vinicius Jr has scored in each of Brazil’s two games.

Erling Haaland, who won the 2025-26 Premier League Golden Boot for his 27 goals for Manchester City, also scored a double in Norway’s 4-1 win against Iraq, as did England captain Harry Kane in the victory over Croatia.

“We have seen so many times at either World Cups or Euros that top players have not been fully fit after a tough season, which is exactly what happened to Harry Kane two years ago at Euro 2024,” added Frank.

“But he and other key players like Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland are all flying and couldn’t look fitter.”

Speaking to BBC Sport, former Manchester City defender Micah Richards mentioned: “The forward players at this World Cup look so confident.

“It’s like they all believe they are going to score and everyone is backing themselves. It’s become less about tactics and more about the feel-good factor of being at a World Cup.”

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