Though there is an endless stream of permutations and question marks about what might secure a runners-up spot at the World Cup for Qatar and Bosnia and Herzegovina, in many ways the equation for both teams is rather simple. Win or go home. Even if the winner did not leapfrog Canada and Switzerland, projection models rate it highly unlikely that a tally of four points would not be enough to earn one of the eight places reserved for the best third-placed finishers. Two points with a minus three goal difference? That would almost certainly not be enough for the current incumbent, Bosnia, to qualify.
It is the European side who should fancy themselves to get the job done. That is partly because of the qualities they themselves showed against Canada, where they were perhaps unlucky to only get a point against the hosts.
Mostly, however, Bosnian expectations should be conditioned around how exceptionally poor Qatar have been. Two games is a small sample from which to draw serious conclusions but there has been little evidence that this team has improved since it hosted the World Cup in 2022.
Their 1-1 draw against Switzerland was impressive on paper but largely achieved because goalkeeper Mahmud Abunada was playing the game of his life. A 6-0 defeat to Canada can be explained away by the red cards to Homan El Amim and Assim Madibo. However, Jonathan David and company weren’t particularly struggling at 11 vs. 11. As they lost their heads in Toronto, Qatar did not look like a team capable of playing at the requisite level for the World Cup.
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The early tournament statistics back that view up. Across two games, Qatar have allowed 58 shots worth 8.1 expected goals, both the worst the World Cup has to offer. The other teams with such difficulty keeping their opponent from shooting spots — Curacao, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde and Paraguay — have at least had one game against top-tier opposition (or, in the latter’s case) the USMNT. Between Switzerland chasing a second and the red cards against Canada, there is a lot of game state to account for in Qatar’s numbers. Even after you do that, this still looks like a team who should be beaten by Bosnia.
Viewing information
Date: Wednesday, June 24 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field — Seattle, Washington
TV: FS1 (Eng), Universo (Spa) | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Odds: Bosnia & Herzegovina -275; Draw +380; Qatar +600
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Qatar predicted lineups
Bosnia & Herzegovina: Nikola Vasilj; Amar Dedic, Nikola Katic, Sead Kolasinac; Amer Memic, Ivan Sunjic, Benjamin Tahirovic, Kerim Alajbegovic; Edin Dzeko, Ermedin Demirovic
Qatar: Mahmud Abunada; Ayoub Al Oui, Pedro Miguel, Boualem Khoukhi, Sultan Al Brake; Ahmed Fathy, Jassem Gaber, Issa Laye; Edmilson Junior, Yusuf Abdurisag, Akram Afif
Keep up with the World Cup standings here!
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs. Qatar pick, prediction
You might have gotten the impression above that I don’t think much of this Qatar team. You would be right. Pick: Bosnia 2, Qatar 0
Keep up with the World Cup standings here!
Golazo 48 Nations: Follow the World Cup all summer long
Golazo 48 Nations is your all-access destination for the World Cup, with wall-to-wall coverage across the CBS Sports Golazo Network. From the first whistle to the final recap, the entire Golazo crew will guide fans through every moment of the tournament.
Each day begins with Morning Footy, setting the stage with the newest news, storylines, and previews ahead of kickoff. From there, Golazo Matchday and Golazo Matchnight deliver reaction and analysis as the action unfolds. Fans can also tune in for coverage of USMNT matches with the Call It What You Want team, as well as reaction to other marquee matchups.
The day wraps with Scoreline, a comprehensive nightly recap of every result, moment, and storyline from across the tournament. Altogether, the Golazo Network will deliver up to 12 hours of programming each matchday, available across the Golazo Network and its YouTube channel.
