LeBron James next team predictions: Warriors overtake Lakers in race to land four-time MVP

For the past year, the future of LeBron James has been the subject of speculation. Will the 41-year-old return to the Lakers? Will he go back home to the Cavaliers? Will he retire and end one of the most decorated careers in North American sports history?

Kalshi’s LeBron James’ Next Team market shows another option has emerged as the most likely scenario. As of Monday afternoon, playing for the Golden State Warriors is the favorite in the James’ Next Team market, at 48% (Yes: $0.48). That’s up from 12.1% on Sunday night.

It’s also greater than the next most likely scenario: James staying with the Lakers or retiring, which is at 37%. That’s down from 46.8% on Sunday night.

James’ next team	Market rates at Kalshi
Warriors	48%
Lakers or retire	37%
Cavaliers	11%
Heat	6%
Spurs	2%

Trade on where LeBron will play next season and more NBA markets at Kalshi, where new users get a $15 bonus after making $15 in trades:

Why the massive market change? On Monday morning, ESPN’s Shams Charania revealed that forward Draymond Green will decline his $27.7 million player option for the upcoming season. With that salary off the books or potentially reduced at a later date (note: both James and Green are represented by agent Rich Paul), the Warriors have flexibility under the salary cap to offer James in free agency. They also simultaneously could pursue a trade for Wizards center Anthony Davis.

The possibility for a James-Davis-Steph Curry Big 3 in the Bay Area (with Green also an option at a reduced number) could be enough to sway James to move from Southern to Northern California. James, Davis and Curry all played together on the 2024 USA Olympic basketball team that won the gold medal in Paris.

James is coming off his worst statistical season since he was a 19-year-old rookie in 2003. He averaged a career-low 20.9 points while averaging just 6.1 rebounds per game (third worst of his career).

But he looked reenergized in the playoffs, averaging 23.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists while shooting 45.9% from the field. He helped a Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles team upset the Rockets in the first round of the postseason before the Lakers were swept by the defending champion Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.

If James, Davis and Curry join forces again, the Warriors would obviously become a major contender in an already loaded Western Conference. Last season Golden State finished with the 10th best record in the West after Jimmy Butler went down with a season-ending ACL injury in January. The Warriors were eliminated by the Suns in the Play-In Tournament.

But the prediction markets are jumping on Golden State for next season. At Kalshi, the Warriors have a 6% chance to win next season’s NBA title. That’s ranks seventh in the NBA and fourth in the Western Conference, behind only the Thunder, Spurs and Timberwolves. That’s also up from 2% on Sunday night.