I wanted to see Eury Perez go for the perfect game Sunday. Believe me, I did. I’m a baseball fan, so I was rooting for it, but I’m also a Marlins fan and a long-time believer in Perez’s potential. Seeing him flirt with perfection only to be pulled after seven innings and 92 pitches was a bummer. I get it.
But I understand the Marlins’ decision-making process here. This wasn’t just a case of a team babying a young pitcher and prioritizing efficiency and long-term injury prevention over potentially making history — though that probably played a part in the analytically inclined Marlins’ decision making, too. You have to keep in mind that, in an ideal world, Perez might still be on the IL recovering from a leg injury Sunday.
Perez was supposed to miss 6-8 weeks with a leg injury, but he returned after just four or so weeks and made just one rehab start. The Marlins were desperate for pitching, down to just Sandy Alcantara, Max Meyer, and a bunch of relievers, spot starters, and replacement-level journeyman, so Perez rushed back from the IL. He might have been off the IL by this point, but if he was, it wouldn’t have been his third start off the IL – it might have been his first.
Given that, having a 90-ish pitch limit for him makes perfect sense. He hadn’t thrown that many since coming off the IL, and the fact that he got through seven innings is an achievement in its own right. And given that context, Perez is clearly ahead of schedule. And he’s pitching out of his mind right now.
He completely blanked the A’s this time around while striking out eight over seven innings, with 12 swinging strikes on his 92 pitches. And he did a great job limiting hard contact, allowing just an 83.9 mph average exit velocity on 13 batted balls, typically the biggest limitation in his game.
Perez has looked excellent since coming off the IL, and it’s all the more impressive given the context of his injury and return. He has allowed just nine base runners in 17 innings while striking out 17 and walking four, and all four walks came in a start at Coors Field, which is easy enough to write off. It’s a small sample size, but given Perez’s immense talent, buying into a small sample size makes sense here. You want to bet on a player like Perez when he’s showing signs, and he’s really showing signs right now.
It would’ve been nice to see him get that perfect game, though.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here’s what you might have missed from CBSSports.com’s MLB coverage in recent days:
Week 16 sleeper hitters
Best hitter matchups for Week 16
1. Padres ARI4, TOR3
2. Giants TOR3, COL4
3. Brewers @STL5, @PIT3
4. Orioles CHC3, KC3
5. Dodgers COL3, ARI3
Worst hitter matchups for Week 16
1. Marlins SEA3, CLE3
2. Angels @TEX3, @MIN3
3. Rays NYY4, SEA3
4. Athletics @DET3, @CHW3
5. Reds PHI3, CHC3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 16
- Dansby Swanson, SS, Cubs (77%) @BAL3, @CIN3
- Luis Garcia, 1B, Nationals (80%) HOU3, NYY3
- Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants (75%) TOR3, COL4
- Jake McCarthy, OF, Rockies (63%) @LAD3, @SF4
- Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants (39%) TOR3, COL4
Week 16 sleeper pitchers
You can check out Scott’s two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks.
Top sleeper pitchers for Week 16
- Joey Cantillo, Guardians (69%) at MIN, at MIA
- Landen Roupp, Giants (72%) vs. TOR, vs. COL
- Ian Seymour, Rays (30%) vs. SEA
- J.T. Ginn, Athletics (70%) at DET
- Griffin Jax, Rays (67%) vs. NYY, vs. SEA
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from this weekend’s action:
Week 16 waiver targets
- C: Francisco Alvarez, Mets (45%)
- 1B: Bryce Eldridge, Giants (74%)
- 2B: Cole Young, Mariners (40%)
- 3B: Royce Lewis, Twins (57%)
- SS: Nasim Nunez, Nationals (42%)
- OF: Esmerlyn Valdez, Pirates (57%), Dylan Crews, Nationals (51%), Jake McCarthy, Rockies (63%), Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (25%), Samad Taylor, Twins (25%)
- SP: Logan Henderson, Brewers (75%), Troy Melton, Tigers (69%), Joey Cantillo, Guardians (69%), Cade Cavalli, Nationals (70%), Ian Seymour, Rays (54%)
- RP: Tyler Wells, Orioles (10%), Caleb Kilian, Giants (28%)
For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Sean Burke is throwing flames
Burke has been trending up for a while, but Saturday was arguably the best start of his career. His velocity continued to trend up and he was sitting at 96.2 mph in this one, which saw him strike out 11 over six innings of one-run ball. And that fastball was great, generating eight of his 16 swinging strikes, while also allowing just an 82.2 mph average exit velocity on six batted balls. The rest of the arsenal did work, too, though, with the slider, cutter, and curveball all generating multiple whiffs and just four hard-hit balls all game. Burke’s velocity spiked during his June 18 appearance against the Yankees and he has 33 strikeouts to just five walks in 25 innings in four starts since. He has clearly unlocked something here, and if he can sustain this velocity bump, Burke looks like a viable starting caliber Fantasy option moving forward.
Konnor Griffin is finding his way
If you didn’t expect there to be some growing pains when Griffin made his debut at 19 years old, you were just asking too much from him. But if you wrote him off after a slow start, you weren’t appreciating what a special talent Griffin is. We’re still waiting for the bat to really take off, but he’s hitting well enough since coming off the IL, going 11 for 36, albeit with just two extra-base hits and nine strikeouts. But he’s finding ways to be incredibly impactful either way, stealing six bases in eight games — including at least one in four games to open July. Before the season, I compared my expectations for Griffin to Bobby Witt’s rookie season, where he hit a relatively pedestrian .254/.294/.428 with 20 homers but was a good Fantasy option thanks to 30 steals. Griffin has just five homers in 59 games, so he’s behind that pace, but he’s making up for it with 20 steals, good for ninth in baseball. Given the slow start and the injury, that’s pretty huge. And he’s only going to get better from here. This is probably a future first overall pick in Fantasy, and he very well may push his way into first-round contention for next season over the next three months.
Kyle Stowers is red-hot
I never wanted to give up on Stowers, but I certainly get the skepticism many have approached him with this season. But he was so good last season that I really didn’t want to give up on the upside that could be there. And it’s starting to look like that’s the right call, especially after a week playing in the two best hitter’s parks in baseball in Colorado and Sacramento. Across six games, Stowers went 11 for 26 with three homers, six extra-base hits, and seven RBI. Stowers finished June hitting .255/.355/.543 and is hot to open July, and he’s up to a .404 xwOBA over his past 100 plate appearances. Stowers hasn’t been as good as he was last season and sits regularly enough against lefties that it’s a real detriment to his value. But last season wasn’t just a fluke. He’s a good hitter, if not a great one, necessarily.
Three Down
Shane Bieber looks cooked
Unfortunately, I think Bieber might be at the end of the line. In three starts since coming back from the IL, he has a 9.00 ERA with just nine strikeouts to seven walks in 13 innings of work. And even the one start that wasn’t a disaster (two earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Rangers) saw him walk four and put up a 1.69 WHIP. His velocity has been close to what it was last season, he’s getting hit hard, hasn’t had his slider working, and somehow has a 13.40 expected ERA — I’ve never seen a number that bad, even over a three-game sample. Maybe he starts turning this around soon, but he just hasn’t looked like a major-league caliber pitcher to date, and given how much he has struggled just to stay on the mound over the past year-plus, it just doesn’t seem like a bet worth making. I’m very much open to dropping Bieber at this point.
Bubba Chandler is stuck in the mud
I think it’s going to happen at some point. There’s too much arm talent here for him not to figure it out and at least be a useful Fantasy option. But Chandler isn’t close right now. He was starting to show some signs in June, but he gave a lot of that back when he was tagged for five runs against the Phillies earlier this week, and he was somehow even less impressive Sunday against the Nationals. Chandler gave up four runs over just four innings Sunday while walking four with zero strikeouts — lowering this strikeout rate to 19.8%, an unfathomably low number for a pitcher with this kind of arm talent. I think he’ll be good at some point, but he just isn’t right now, and I think I’m tired of waiting on it.
Cooper Ingle looks overmatched
Ingle was one of those prospects whose rankings never seemed to match up to his production, and maybe we’re seeing a win for the skeptical scouts. Ingle has been utterly overmatched in his first taste of the majors, striking out 12 times in 24 plate appearances in his first seven MLB games, and he has notably struggled on the defensive side of the ball when put in the field, too. Ingle was hitting .284/.416/.551 at Tripe-A before his promotion, so I’m not ready to write him off just yet. But he hasn’t looked like he belongs yet, and with other catchers emerging like Endy Rodriguez, I don’t see much reason to roster Ingle right now.
Extra Innings
Hunter Greene was, predictably, rusty
I usually want to give pitchers coming off long injury layoffs a buffer before I start them, but I’ll admit, I got Greene back in my lineups this week. The upside was worth chasing, but it blew up in my face, as the Orioles tagged him for eight runs on seven hits and four walks in just 3.1 innings of work in his first start back since having loose bodies removed from his elbow this spring. The command clearly wasn’t there, hence the four walks, but the stuff still looks strong — he struck out seven, had 15 swinging strikes on 89 pitches, and his velocity was down just 0.6 mph from last season. There was some rust to knock off and that might persist, but I didn’t see any reason to think Greene won’t be exceptional eventually. And I’ll be keeping him in my lineup for it.
