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Happy MLB draft week!
This year’s draft will take place Saturday and Sunday in Philadelphia as part of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game festivities hosted by the Philadelphia Phillies.
As we approach the start of Round 1, here is one big question facing each of the 30 MLB teams.
Teams are listed in draft order.
More draft coverage: Mock draft | Comparing recent top prospects
First pick: No. 1
Bonus pool: $17,592,100
One big question: What’s the strategy at the top pick?
What looked like a pretty clear call entering the spring — take college shortstop Roch Cholowsky over high school shortstop Grady Emerson — has now become much more complicated. As Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey’s profile continued to rise, I felt that he was becoming a viable option at the top pick, just as the Cholowsky vs. Emerson discussion was blooming in the public and, if you believe the chatter, behind the scenes with the White Sox.
I did a quick text poll of scouts to see if they were seeing this as a virtual three-way coin flip and basically all of them stated yes. I asked scouts only from teams outside of the top 10 so I could get some honest takes, and none of the scouts had their personal board lined up the same way. Some had college pitcher Jackson Flora or high school shortstop Jacob Lombard in their top three, as well. Frankly, this situation is a bit of a mess now for the White Sox: There’s probably not going to be a clear, correct answer to who the best player is among their options and nobody in the industry can agree on who it is yet. White Sox fans probably will be debating this decision for years.
First pick: No. 2
Bonus pool: $19,009,300
One big question: Do the Rays lean more toward upside, price or proximity at the second pick?
I don’t think this question is an actual conversation happening in the Rays’ room, but I more so mean the appearance of their strategy emphasizing one of these based on their decision. College stars Vahn Lackey and Roch Cholowsky both project to be in the big leagues quickly, and high schooler Grady Emerson will take longer, and some scouts think Emerson has a clearly higher ceiling but others don’t see as much daylight. I don’t think the cost to sign these three players will vary dramatically for the second pick, as any of them who aren’t picked would expect to then go third. The Rays don’t shy away from taking the best player, regardless of age/proximity or position, but when the impact could be as big and as soon as Cholowsky and Lackey offer, either would be a logical choice if Tampa Bay is on the lower end in terms of projecting Emerson’s upside.
First pick: No. 3
Bonus pool: $16,929,600
One big question: Does this year’s No. 3 pick have a lot in common with the Twins’ No. 5 pick in 2023?
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The Twins had the fifth pick in a very clear five-player draft in 2023. Rumors swirled about how this would play out: If the Twins were lower on the player that got to them (Walker Jenkins, in the real-life scenario), would they take a clearly lesser talent for much less money to be creative later? They played hardball with Jenkins’ agent (Scott Boras) and took the best player, giving him a full slot but no more. In what is widely seen as a three-player draft this year, it could be seen as an easy choice to just take the player that gets to the third pick and give them the third-highest bonus after the first two picks sign. Easy for me to say with nothing on the line, so this isn’t a slam dunk, but what I’ve laid out is also the most likely outcome.
First pick: No. 4
Bonus pool: $17,350,600
One big question: Do the Giants get their wish and land Emerson or Cholowsky at the fourth pick?
There has been buzz for months that the Giants are trying everything they can to get Grady Emerson or Roch Cholowsky to their pick. When this draft seemed as if it had a clear first- and second-best prospect (Cholowsky then Emerson), this was a logical thing to try with a tiny chance of working. Now that Vahn Lackey has joined the group, there’s a better chance, as the Giants just need to get one team, probably the Twins, to blink and choose to take a less-consensus talent for savings. That’s still unlikely, but it at least now seems conceivable. If that doesn’t happen, it sounds as if San Francisco’s choice will come down to Jackson Flora or Eric Booth Jr., as it appears that Jacob Lombard has fallen behind those two.
First pick: No. 5
Bonus pool: $19,130,700
One big question: Has Pittsburgh shifted focus to quick-moving college players given the status of the big league team?
The Pirates are turning the corner into contention with a strong core and have hit it big on riskier prep picks such as Konnor Griffin, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones and Braxton Ashcraft. Does that mean they keep targeting that sort of player (i.e. Jacob Lombard or Eric Booth Jr. in this draft class) or, since they see the big league team improving, try to get quicker-moving college players to fill holes around the core (Jackson Flora or Drew Burress)? The buzz around the industry is leaning more toward the college end of that question, but that doesn’t mean it’s a strategic choice, as opinions on the hit tool of Lombard and Booth vary widely.
First pick: No. 6
Bonus pool: $15,954,000
One big question: Do the Royals throw a curveball at pick six or play it straight?
Most teams agree on a group of six-plus players in the top tier (Roch Cholowsky, Vahn Lackey, Grady Emerson, Jackson Flora, Jacob Lombard, Eric Booth Jr.), so you’d think picking at No. 6 means the Royals just take the best player left on the board. They tend to have opinions about players who are more pointed than other teams, so the odds are a little higher that the one or two players in that group that Kansas City is less excited about will be the one who gets to their selection. Could this be another Frank Mozzicato moment where they go way down the consensus board to save money and spread it around high school players later? Those rumors are swirling around a few picks in this range, including the Royals’ pick.
First pick: No. 7
Bonus pool: $13,114,000
One big question: Do the O’s shift their focus a bit in light of the strengths/weaknesses of their big league team and farm system?
Under president of baseball operations Mike Elias, the Orioles have historically taken position players and primarily power/speed/athletic-testing types at higher picks. Does the record of the big league team serve to shift that strategy a bit or do the Orioles stay the course? Or, because they’re picking at the backend of the top tier of talent, do they just choose from the one or two logical options left and nab the best available player? I think the answer is the third option, and that means Jacob Lombard or Drew Burress, with an outside chance for Justin Lebron. Those players also all generally fit the aforementioned type.
First pick: No. 8
Bonus pool: $13,840,300
One big question: Do the A’s have another breakout college pick up their sleeve, like Nick Kurtz or Gage Jump?
The A’s tend to pick counter to the consensus rankings more than any other team and they’ve had plenty of hits to justify continuing that strategy. Given that the top tier of talent looks like six to nine players depending on which team you’re talking about, there’s a good shot the A’s get one of those players, but there are rumblings of some names out of left field if the board blows up and the A’s are looking for savings. I could see Ryder Helfrick or Chris Hacopian being the last guy in their sights, but rival teams think Zion Rose is a real part of their thinking at the No. 8 pick, which is much higher than some other clubs have him.
First pick: No. 9
Bonus pool: $15,870,800
One big question: What will the Braves be looking to do with their first top-20 pick since 2019?
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The Braves feel as if they’re going to be the floor for the position players who make up the backend of the top tier of talent. Roch Cholowsky, Vahn Lackey, Grady Emerson and Jackson Flora all have no chance of getting to this pick. Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr. are also very unlikely to fall this far, and that’s the consensus top six players in the draft. Generally, Drew Burress and Tyler Bell are seen as the next two — for some making it a top eight — and there might even be some teams that have Justin Lebron in there as the ninth player in the top tier.
I don’t think Lebron or Lombard fit the kind of players the Braves typically draft because of contact rate, and it’s unlikely the other seven players are all off the board before the Braves pick, given all the rumors of underslot deals. Burress and Bell seem like the fits here, but if everyone is off the board, I could see the next player on their board being Chris Hacopian, Ryder Helfrick, or possibly Cameron Flukey.
First pick: No. 10
Bonus pool: $15,557,600
One big question: What will be the style of drafting for this new front office?
That is a big question in the industry right now as the Rockies have the 10th, 37th and 38th picks in the draft. I think they will lean to position players at their first pick, and that’s largely what the board is giving them. Taking Drew Burress or Tyler Bell if they get to the 10th pick makes sense. Picking at this spot gives them one of the first shots at this next tier of position players in Derek Curiel (the rumored target), Ryder Helfrick, Chris Hacopian and maybe even Daniel Jackson. The top evaluators for the Rockies were seen at the games of a number of prep left-handers down the stretch, so that might be a thought for a later pick, as they’re still tied mostly to college players at their next two picks.
First pick: No. 11
Bonus pool: $12,278,300
One big question: How will the style of Boston’s recent drafts manifest with a bevy of former Red Sox executives now in charge of the Nationals?
I’d expect the strategies of these two teams to look similar given the overlap in scouting and decision-making personnel. At higher picks, that means power arms with a bias toward supination (i.e. breaking pitches), ideally with big extension and the best fits for that type would be Liam Peterson and Cole Carlon. Among position players, look for power upside with some defensive ability: Ryder Helfrick, Tyler Bell, Justin Lebron and Jared Grindlinger lead the way among that group.
First pick: No. 12
Bonus pool: $11,755,400
One big question: The Angels will take another quick-moving college player in the first round, right?
I have to act as if they will keep doing this until they don’t, but there is a line of thinking that recently fired general manager Perry Minasian was behind this draft strategy, so they could change course this season. There has been a strong return from the Angels taking prep pitchers later as overslot options in recent drafts, so I’d expect that to continue. At the 12th pick, they’re looking mostly at college players as the best options most likely available, so I think that’s likely to be their selection, but not necessarily the quickest mover per se. Cameron Flukey, Ryder Helfrick, Justin Lebron, Derek Curiel and Chris Hacopian all make sense.
First pick: No. 13
Bonus pool: $16,612,300
One big question: Have the Cardinals’ drafting preferences shifted?
Historically, the Cardinals focused more on pitchers who had a chance to rack up 180 inning seasons than ones with huge raw stuff (Brian Holiday, Cooper Hjerpe, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Michael McGreevy). But then in 2025, the first draft under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, the Cards shifted to more stuff-based types with some relief risk in Liam Doyle (first round) and Tanner Franklin (second round). Is that an outlier or sign of more to come?
The 13th pick is a tricky spot as the second tier of talent starts around picks eight-to-10, so St. Louis won’t get a top tier player and doesn’t get to pick through all of the second tier. That means lots of potential choices, with Liam Peterson and Cole Carlon as the stuff-first pitchers that could fit, but also means that the Cards will be picking from a number of players who are either in the middle of that stuff vs. bulk innings spectrum or are position players. Whom they target at the second and later picks probably will tell us more about their pitching style preferences.
First pick: No. 14
Bonus pool: $11,960,100
One big question: Will the Marlins continue hunting for power/speed athletes or pivot a bit?
The Marlins have been prioritizing power/athleticism combinations in recent draft picks (Aiva Arquette, Brandon Compton, Max Williams, P.J. Morlando, etc.) and in trade (Owen Caissie, Dillon Lewis, Cristian Hernandez, etc.). Buzz has them focused on more hit-first players at their top pick this year (Derek Curiel, Trevor Condon), though that could be more about what the board is giving them rather than a shifting focus. I’ll be interested to see if their style of hitter is shifting and/or if the success of the big league team also affects their preferences.
First pick: No. 15
Bonus pool: $13,603,100
One big question: Will the D-backs choose another lefty-hitting high schooler at their first-round pick?
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The Snakes have leaned hard into lefty-hitting high school position players in the past with Kayson Cunningham (last year’s first-rounder), Slade Caldwell (2024 first-rounder), J.D. Dix (switch-hitter; 2024 compensation-rounder), Ivan Luciano (2024 second-rounder), along with other historic picks such as Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas. If he gets to No. 15, I could see Arizona being a floor for Jared Grindlinger, but the other potential fits for the Diamondbacks either don’t appear to be a target of theirs or will go about 10 picks later. LSU outfielder Derek Curiel fits here, but he might not make it to this pick; the board is making it easier to take a pitcher here, even if that isn’t normally what Arizona tends to do with high picks.
First pick: No. 16
Bonus pool: $10,219,200
One big question: Will the Rangers go back to the high school position player demographic in 2026?
The Rangers hadn’t taken a high school player in the first two rounds since Evan Carter (second-round pick) in 2020, until they took a high schooler in the first and third rounds last year. Is this a glimpse of their focus going forward or just an anomaly? This year, there are a lot of college options at the 16th pick and not that many high school players you can justify there who will also still be on the board. I’d say there’s about a 75% chance the Rangers will go college with their first pick given what the board will look like. I could see them being a floor for Derek Curiel, Chris Hacopian and Cameron Flukey.
First pick: No. 17
Bonus pool: $13,712,700
One big question: Can Houston refresh the farm system now that it has its full complement of picks (plus an extra one) for the first time in a while?
The Astros tend to lean to position players at top picks; they haven’t taken a pitcher in the top 60 picks since J.B. Bukauskas in 2017. If they stay with this preference, they’ll get to add a number of high-upside position players in this year’s draft. Houston tends to prioritize raw power and explosive measurable athleticism. Rising Georgia catcher Daniel Jackson fits this preference, and probably doesn’t make it to the Astros’ second pick at 28th. TCU outfielder Sawyer Strosnider fits that style and also fits that 28th pick pretty well. Archer Horn and prep catchers Sean Dunlap and Will Brick also fit.
First pick: No. 18
Bonus pool: $10,758,500
One big question: Will the Reds use their first pick to help replenish the pitching depth in their farm system?
Many of the top arms the Reds have developed have graduated from prospect status, like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, who follow in the footsteps of other first-round arms Cincinnati has developed, like Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. The Reds might be a floor for Cameron Flukey or Liam Peterson if they drop this far, then they’ll get to pick through the top of the next tier of college arms, like Mason Edwards, Cole Carlon, Cade Townsend, Hunter Dietz, Taylor Rabe and Logan Reddemann. The Reds tend to prefer big fastball velocity, so Edwards and Reddemann make a bit less sense from that group.
First pick: No. 19
Bonus pool: $9,303,700
One big question: Will the Guardians keep leaning more into raw power as opposed to their typical contact-first stategy?
In the first entry of the draft blog, I noted that the Guardians seem to be leaning more into picking position players first who have above-average raw power than they had in the past. I could see Cleveland being the spot that makes the most sense for Ace Reese, if the Guardians are OK with his defensive limitations that could mean a move to first base eventually; Sawyer Strosnider is a little closer in style to last year’s first-rounder Jace LaViolette. There’s some buzz that the late-rising prep infielders (Rocco Maniscalco, Trey Ebel, James Tronstein, Taj Marchand) might get all the way up the board to this pick, with Maniscalco having the best chance.
First pick: No. 20
Bonus pool: $8,219,200
One big question: Which players that fit Boston’s preferences make sense at its first pick?
The track record of this front office at high picks is to lean into pitchers (particularly lefties) with big extension who favor supination (i.e. good breaking pitches/cutting the ball are naturally easier than pronating/throwing a changeup or two-seamer) and, generally, to pick position players with above-average power potential. Liam Peterson and Mason Edwards (if they make it to pick 20), as well as Cade Townsend generally fit the mold among pitchers, though they all have lower extension. Daniel Jackson, Bo Lowrance and Zion Rose all fit on the position player side; Lowrance has been rumored the most at this pick of this group.
First pick: No. 21
Bonus pool: $9,479,000
One big question: Does San Diego just take another prep lefty with its first pick?
The Padres’ top pick in 2025 (Kruz Schoolcraft) and their top two picks in 2024 (Kash Mayfield, then Boston Bateman) were prep lefties, and in 2022, they went with a prep righty with their first pick (Dylan Lesko), followed by a prep lefty with their comp pick (Robby Snelling). So it would be easy to look at the board and say that one of Gio Rojas, Brody Bumila or Carson Bolemon will be their pick. I don’t think it’s quite that easy, but I’m pretty sure at least one of those players will be in the mix. There’s also buzz that the Padres are in on some position players, like Zion Rose, Taj Marchand, Bo Lowrance and Cole Prosek.
First pick: No. 22
Bonus pool: $9,165,100
One big question: Does Detroit take another left-handed-hitting high school position player with its first pick?
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It actually has become a punchline when I run into Tigers’ scouts at a game to ask why they’re there scouting an early-round prospect if there isn’t a left-handed-hitting prep position player on the field. They took Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto with their top two picks last year, Bryce Rainer with their top pick in 2024, and Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle with their top two picks in 2023. If I’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s to pay attention when teams tell you what their preferred demographic is at top picks — Padres taking prep lefties, Angels taking quick-moving college players — and project them to stick to it until they show you otherwise. Trevor Condon makes sense if he makes it to pick 22 (I don’t think he will, but he could), and Archer Horn, Bo Lowrance, Rocco Maniscalco, James Clark, Aiden Ruiz and Tyler Spangler could all fit as well.
First pick: No. 23
Bonus pool: $9,644,100
One big question: Do the Cubs try the same strategy again this season with high school overpays after a handful of college selections at top picks?
I wrote at the time about how I liked the Cubs’ strategy last season of targeting college players for under slot at their first three picks to set up high school overpays. This doesn’t work that often because you’re essentially taking lesser talents first, than gambling other teams won’t take the players you’re waiting for later, but the early returns on Kane Kepley, Josiah Hartshorn and Kaleb Wing (three of the four biggest bonuses in their haul) are already strong relative to expectations, with Hartshorn the breakout star of the group thus far.
I don’t think even the Cubs drew up their 2025 strategy in that kind of detail, so the short answer to my question is no, they won’t try the same strategy. But they’ll have tons of options since they’re essentially picking near the top of the third tier of talent and could easily prioritize value, grabbing players who slid, or cut with a rising college player (like Mississippi right-hander Taylor Rabe?) and see what they can do with those savings.
First pick: No. 24
Bonus pool: $8,218,200
One big question: Is there a high school position player who fits the Mariners’ preferences?
The M’s have had a lot of luck picking prep position players: second-rounder Nick Becker in 2025, first-rounders Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo and Tai Peete in 2023, first-rounder Cole Young in 2022, and first-rounder Harry Ford and second-rounder Edwin Arroyo in 2021. There isn’t one particular formula or lane these players all land in, but all of them are arrow-up since draft time and that’s hard to do seven times in a row. This year, Bo Lowrance, Archer Horn and Cole Prosek all fit the bill, with Lowrance having the most buzz with the Mariners specifically. Given their success with some pitchers picked in those same years (Brody Hopkins, Ryan Sloan, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Bryce Miller, Kade Anderson) it’s difficult to limit their potential targets.
First pick: No. 25
Bonus pool: $8,042,900
One big question: Is there another Andrew Fischer who fits at the Brewers’ first pick?
I noted in the first post in the draft blog that the Brewers are among the teams that have shifted from a hit-first focus to more of a raw power or in-game power focus at their top picks. Fischer, their 2025 first-rounder, is a good example of this, with average tools but some of the best in-game power skills (i.e. pull and lift with enough raw power to put the ball over the fence) of that draft. He has hit 27 homers this year across two levels of the minors, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to go to that well again.
Luckily, there’s another SEC third baseman this year who is being compared to Fischer for a very similar skillset that I think the Brewers will be the floor for: Mississippi State third baseman Ace Reese. He might belong a few picks higher, but some models won’t like that scouts are projecting him to move to first base or maybe left field, so it wouldn’t shock me if Reese, who hit 45 homers the past two seasons for the Bulldogs, gets to pick 25.
First pick: No. 27
Bonus pool: $6,730,900
One big question: Can the Mets land a potential impact player with their first pick?
The Mets are tied more to position players, and mostly those with a bit more risk-and-reward than the safer college performers who are also available around their first pick. Their recent history of first-round picks leans position players (Kevin Parada and Jett Williams in 2022, Colin Houck in 2023, Carson Benge in 2024, Mitch Voit in 2025) and mostly toward more risk/reward, with Williams and Benge being the biggest hits so far of that group. The Mets have been tied to Aiden Robbins, Will Brick and Bo Lowrance, among others, and all three of those position players fit this trend.
First pick: No. 35
Bonus pool: $7,342,800
One big question: What kind of player will make it to the Yankees’ first pick?
This is a familiar question for Yankees fans, as their highest first-round pick in the past five drafts has been 25th (in 2022), though the results have been better than you’d expect, as they’ve landed George Lombard Jr., Spencer Jones and Dax Kilby with three of those five picks. The rumor mill has the Yankees tied to more position players than pitchers, and this is actually seen as the floor for some of those position players if they slide a bit, including Cole Prosek and Daniel Jackson. I think New York could also be a stopping point for Bo Lowrance and Archer Horn.
First pick: No. 36
Bonus pool: $7,773,000
One big question: What sort of high school player will the Phillies take with their first pick?
The Phillies leaned hard into high school players with their top picks until last year, when they didn’t take a high school player until the ninth round. I think Gage Wood (their first-round pick last year, a college right-hander) was a rare value, dictating a rare strategy, so I’d expect the Phillies to again have more high school than college players in their mix at this pick. Some rumored potential targets include Brody Bumila, Taj Marchand, Rocco Maniscalco, Will Brick and Sean Dunlap. Historically, the lean has been more to pitchers with bigger raw stuff and premium position hitters with raw power potential.
First pick: No. 39
Bonus pool: $5,543,100
One big question: Is there another hit coming for the Jays at pick 39?
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The Jays have been hitting on high picks of late: JoJo Parker is high in the Top 100 just one year after going No. 8, Trey Yesavage was in the big leagues one year after going 20th, and their next 2024 picks (Khal Stephen, Johnny King, Sean Keys) all look like Top 100 prospects now, just like 2023 first-rounder Arjun Nimmala. Picking 39th will be a bigger challenge than these previous picks, but after about pick 20-to-25, the players all look very similar to rival teams, which means opportunity for Toronto. Some potential targets include Cole Prosek, Coleman Borthwick, Will Brick, Tegan Kuhns and Carson Bolemon.
First pick: No. 40
Bonus pool: $3,951,900
One big question: The Dodgers are going to draft another good player, aren’t they?
It’s hard to project what will happen in the 30s and 40s, but it has come up more than a few times when talking to a scout about a player who’s expected to go in the 20s but has a chance to slide: “He might slide into the 30s… actually maybe down to the Dodgers.” L.A.’s picks last year were LHP Zach Root (40th) and OF Charles Davalan (41st); Root’s strikeout rate is better now than it was in the SEC last season, and Davalan’s stats are very similar in High-A to his line at Arkansas last season. Some candidates for the 40th pick this year, if things land just right for the Dodgers: Tegan Kuhns, Rocco Maniscalco, Trey Ebel, Carson Bolemon, Carson Tinney.
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