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Scotland set to lose second Champions League placeImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, Next season’s Scottish champions will have to start in the second qualifying round of the Champions LeagueByDale Johnson
The Scottish Premiership looks certain to have only one Champions League place after next season.
The wide-ranging impact of its clubs’ underperforming in European competition will also see Scotland’s overall allocation reduced from five teams to four.
It will become more difficult to reach the league phase, too, as all teams must enter qualifying in earlier rounds.
And there could be financial impact on the whole of the Scottish game.
Celtic, the last active Scottish club in European competition this term, suffered a 4-1 defeat at home to Stuttgart in the first leg of their Europa League knockout play-off round tie on Thursday.
If the elimination of Martin O’Neill’s team is verified after next Thursday’s return leg in Germany, Scotland’s fate will be sealed.
The Uefa coefficient ranks the average performance of each country’s clubs in Europe over a rolling five-year period.
Scotland has enjoyed two places in the Champions League for six seasons.
Only once, in 2022-23, have both Celtic and Rangers made it through qualifying to play in the competition proper.
But in all six seasons both were at least in the Europa League.
Scotland had been ranked as high as ninth between 2021 and 2023, granting the title winners direct access to the Champions League group stage.
But there has been a gradual decline since then. Last year Scotland went from two places to one in the Europa League.
It has now dropped from 14th to 18th in the Uefa coefficient. Only the top 15 nations get two Champions League spots and later qualifying round access.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told BBC Sport it “will have significant financial consequences”.
Taking part in the Champions League is worth a minimum of £16.6m. Each victory is then worth £1.75m and a draw £610,000.
“Celtic made more than £40m from the Champions League in 2024-25,” mentioned Maguire. “And that’s before you take into account some of the ancillary benefits from matchday revenues, sold-out stadiums and sponsor bonuses.
“For every one pound you earn in the Champions League, you get approximately 22p in the Europa League and 11p in the Conference League.
“It is a sizeable difference, and that would be a restriction for whoever finishes second.”
This season’s Scottish Premiership runners-up will still enter the Champions League in the second qualifying round.
If they win their first qualifier they are guaranteed Europa League football at minimum.
This will change as of 2026-27.
Second place will by right only earn a spot in the second qualifying round of the Conference League.
The Scottish Cup carries a place in the Europa League, which would pass to the runners-up if the winners finished in the top two.
But that is going be in the first qualifying round in mid-July, two rounds earlier than this season and four ties from the league phase.
It will become harder for the champions, too.
Presently, they join in the play-off round and only need to win one tie to make the Champions League. Lose it and they are guaranteed a spot in the Europa League.
Next season’s champions are set to enter in the second qualifying round in 2027-28, meaning they must win three ties to reach the league phase.
There is no automatic Europa League safety net, either.
It will be possible for the champions to lose in consecutive qualifying rounds of all three competitions.
That would be in the second round of the Champions League, third round of the Europa League and then the play-off round of the Conference League.
The champions could miss out on league-phase football altogether.
Cyprus and Denmark are set to be the beneficiaries, with their coefficient boosted this season by their best ever European campaigns.
They will receive two places in the Champions League instead, with Austria the other country to fall out of the top 15.
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