Every Friday leading up to conference tournaments, I’ll take an early look at some of Saturday’s biggest college basketball games based on the opening lines. This Saturday features the college basketball Game of the Year between Michigan and Duke, while Houston hosts Arizona in a key Big 12 matchup.
I’ll give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tip-off. These are just leans, unless I mention I officially gave out a pick on SportsLine in the analysis.
Note: Saturday’s opening lines and subject to change.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Duke Blue Devils
Michigan -2.5, 148.5 (DraftKings)
I have a list of 10 teams I believe can make a realistic Final Four run, then there is a pretty wide gap to the next group. Obviously, Michigan and Duke are near the top of the list, so this is a monster matchup on a neutral court in late February.
I can’t argue against taking the points with Duke here. However, it’s just hard for me to go against Michigan in a big game. The Wolverines have passed every test this season when stepping up in class, with their lone loss coming against a Wisconsin team that hit 45 percent from 3-point range.
Having mentioned all that, Duke is better than any team Michigan has faced this season. The Blue Devils have also excelled when facing tough competition, with wins over Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State and Louisville.
This game is close to dead even on paper. The one thing that stands out is Michigan can struggle with turnovers. The Blue Devils are the best team in the ACC in creating turnovers and turning those mistakes into points. I think the key number is 15. If Michigan has 15 or more turnovers, Duke wins.
I’m probably just going to watch this game, although my lean is to the Under. These are the two top defensive teams on KenPom, and neither shoots a lot of 3-pointers. Another factor could be free throw shooting. Both teams are average from the foul line, shooting below 74% on the season. I lean Under at 148.5, and think that number will go down by tip-off.
Lean: Under 148.5
Bet the Under in Michigan vs. Duke at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their bet wins:
Arizona Wildcats at Houston Cougars
Houston -4.5, 141.5 (FanDuel)
I already gave out Houston -3.5 on the DraftKings opening number. As of early Friday, FanDuel still had the Cougars -4.5 with all the other major sportsbooks at 5.5.
I took the 3.5 right away because the lines in these high-profile Big 12 games have all gone up, even when I thought the number would go the other way. Arizona-Houston is following that trend. Oddsmakers have given the top Big 12 teams a big edge for home court, and so far it hasn’t deterred bettors from backing the favorites.
This is one of the few times I am going with my gut. Houston doesn’t really have many big statistical edges here. The game is pretty even on paper, but the way to attack the Cougars is from the perimeter. Defending the 3-point line is one of Houston’s only defensive weaknesses, that’s why Texas Tech is a tough matchup for them. Shooting 3s isn’t Arizona’s game, though. The Wildcats rank last in the Big 12 in 3-point attempts per game.
We’ll find out a lot about Houston in the next week with games against Arizona and Kansas. I still believe the Cougars are one of the top three or four best teams in the country, and I like them at home coming off the close loss to Iowa State. I would bet Houston at -4.5. Anything higher is a lean.
Lean: Houston -4.5
Bet the Cougars to cover the spread in Arizona vs. Houston at FanDuel, where new users get get $100 in bonus bets if the bet wins:
Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers
Auburn -2.5, 156.5 (FanDuel)
Last week in this article I leaned the Wildcats +11.5 and over 152.5 against Florida, with both of those hitting. I’m going back to the well here with Kentucky and the Over.
I mentioned earlier this season in the SportsLine Discord that I thought there might be a point in the season where the bottom falls out on Auburn. It’s not easy losing a legendary coach like Bruce Pearl, and I didn’t think the overall talent level was where it’s been in years past. We are now at that point, with the Tigers entering Saturday on a five-game losing streak.
Kentucky has lost back-to-back games themselves to Florida and Georgia, although I would still make the Wildcats slight favorites in this spot. Auburn’s defense has been brutal recently, ranking dead last in the SEC at defending the 3. The Tigers are a tough team to back right now, especially as favorites.
I expect another wild SEC game between these two teams that will likely be played in the 80s. I lean taking the points with Kentucky and going over 156.5.
Leans: Kentucky +2.5 and Over 156.5
Bet the Over in Kentucky vs. Auburn at FanDuel:
