Seven of the 13 MLB games on the slate for Thursday, July 9 will be taking place in the evening and that’ll be the focus when it comes to targeting home run player props. Before you make your wagers on who will go yard, you should see what SportsLine expert Adam Thompson is saying about Thursday’s games.
Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he’s up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here’s Thompson’s home run picks for Thursday, July 9.
Best home run picks for Thursday, July 9
- Heriberto Hernandez, Marlins (+610)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+337)
Heriberto Hernandez, Marlins (+610)
Over the last week, Hernandez has been the hottest hitter in baseball. In five games, he’s 7-of-15 with four home runs, not to mention two doubles and a pair of walks. Of the 14 hits Bryce Miller has allowed over his last four starts, five of them have been home runs. All but one has been on the road, with five of the seven he’s given up overall coming against right-handed hitters.
On Tuesday, he drilled 422-foot HR that tied the game against the Mariners, and on Sunday hit two home runs in a one-run win over the Athletics. Scoring doesn’t always come easy against Miller and Seattle, but to get such high odds on the red-hot Hernandez is too tempting to pass up.
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Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+337)
Tatis Jr. infamously went 56 games before hitting his first home run of 2026 – a surprise for someone who’s hit 21-plus HRs in five of his six seasons, and who ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit balls.
Tatis has yet to hit a home run this week, but he drilled three of them the week prior. This week, he’s batting .321, and as the leadoff hitter, will get ample opportunities at home here against the Diamondbacks.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is not having a good season, and it’s doubly true at home, posting a 7.44 ERA in six starts. He’s given up 10 home runs in those six games. Tatis has seen Kelly a lot as NL West competitors, and Tatis has won. In 31 at-bats, he is hitting .355 lifetime, with four home runs and a 1.186 OPS.
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