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After a one-week break, UFC Fight Night is back this Saturday, streaming on Paramount+ from Houston. UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez is headlined by a pair of top-5 middleweights, both of whom have a lengthy list of accomplishments. No. 3 Sean Strickland (29-7) is a former UFC middleweight champion, and he’ll take on No. 4 Anthony Hernandez (15-2), who has the most takedowns landed in the division’s history. Hernandez is the -278 favorite (risk $278 to win $100) in the newest UFC odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, with Strickland the +225 underdog.

The UFC Fight Night main card starts at 8 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center. The co-main event has Texas native, Geoff Neal, facing Uros Medic in a welterweight bout. The 12th-ranked Neal is at -218 to utilize UFC bets on, with Medic at +180. Before locking in any UFC picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from Mike McClure’s proven computer model.

Paramount+ is the only place to Stream EVERY UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost. A subscription also gives you access to other sports content, including the UEFA Champions League, college basketball, the NFL and Big Ten on CBS and countless movies and shows. Plans start at just $8.99 per month, so sign up right here.  

New users wanting to bet on UFC Fight Night can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your first $5+ bet wins:

McClure’s UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

Now, the model has analyzed Strickland vs. Hernandez from every angle and revealed its top betting picks and best bets. Head to SportsLine to see them. 

Strickland vs. Hernandez preview 

Strickland, 34, is one of the most prolific fighters in UFC history as he has the most all-time significant strikes landed (1,465) in the middleweight division and the third-most significant strikes landed (2,197) overall. He’s been a professional since 2008 and joined UFC in 2014, with a tendency for his fights to go to the judges. Eight of his past 10 bouts have gone a full 5 rounds, including each of the last four, and his average fight time of 18:11 is the longest amongst UFC middleweights.

The highlight of his promotional tenure came when he defeated Israel Adesanya in Sep. 2023 to win the middleweight championship. Strickland prevailed via unanimous decision, however, he’s dropped two of three bouts since then. Both losses have come to Dricus du Plessis, including losing the title in Jan. 2024, beating Paulo Costa at UFC 302, and then losing again to du Plessis last February. Strickland is seeking to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in his MMA career. Check out SportsLine to see the model’s picks and analysis.

The 32-year-old Hernandez has exactly half as many pro bouts (18) under his belt than Strickland has (36). However, what he may lack in experience he makes up for in momentum as he’s won each of the last eight times he’s stepped into the Octagon. This is the longest active win streak in the middleweight division, and Hernandez also owns the divisional record for the most takedowns landed (54).

Unlike his UFC Fight Night opponent, Hernandez’ style often leads to fights ending early as just three times over his MMA career have his fights gone the distance. Nine of his 15 victories have come via submission as he has a background in both wrestling and BJJ. Hernandez has suffered just two defeats in his career — one via knockout and one via submission — with the latter being something Strickland can’t claim as the former middleweight champ has never submitted in his 36-fight career. You can only see the model’s UFC picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez predictions

One of the model’s top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+4.2% edge) in the co-main event of Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, which returns +153. Neal was a college linebacker and carried over those defensive instincts into the Octagon. He has the 3rd-best takedown defense (89.7%) among active UFC welterweights, which has allowed six of his last eight fights to reach at least the third round. While Medic is a knockout specialist that prefers to end things early, he also has a strong defensive background rooted in judo and BJJ.

“The simulations show this fight going past 1.5 rounds at a higher rate than the betting line implies despite both fighters carrying real finishing ability. The defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggest exchanges will be more measured early which increases the chance the fight extends,” McClure told SportsLine. See who else to back here. 

You can make this pick at FanDuel, where new users can also check out the newest FanDuel promo code and get $100 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your first $5+ bet wins. 

How to make UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez picks

The model has picks for Strickland vs. Hernandez and other bouts on the UFC card. It is also backing several underdogs, as well as a best bet that returns over +500. You can see who it is only at SportsLine.

Who wins Strickland vs. Hernandez, and which UFC best bet of over +500 should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez main fight card, odds 

See picks at SportsLine.
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)

Sean Strickland (+225) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-278)
Geoff Neal (-218) vs. Uros Medic (+180)
Dan Ige (+164) vs. Melquizael Costa (-215)
Serghei Spivac (+124) vs. Ante Delija (-160)
Jacobe Smith (-290) vs. Josiah Harrell (+235)
Zach Reese (+130) vs. Michel Pereira (-155)

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