It’s the Wednesday after the MLB All-Star Game, which means arguably the worst sporting day of the year for live events. But we only have to wait 30 hours or so from publication for baseball to start back up with a Thursday night standalone matchup. So, it’s a good day to check updated futures trends via BetMGM, and to no surprise that sportsbook (and I’m sure all the others) are rooting hard against a Dodgers-Yankees World Series.
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They are the two favorites to win the Fall Classic, with Los Angeles now sitting at +185 to three-peat after opening months ago at +350. The Dodgers lead in handle (21.9%) and tickets (11.6%) at the book. Despite being without Aaron Judge for weeks and not even leading the AL East, the Yankees have moved from +800 to +550 for their first title since 2009 and are second in handle (9.1%) and tickets (9.2%).
But those numbers shouldn’t surprise anyone, because the marquee teams take more action on MLB futures than they do in any other major U.S. pro league. BetMGM also has some modest exposure on Detroit (third with 7.2% of tickets) and Atlanta (third with 7.1% of handle) to win the Fall Classic. Safe to say the Tigers won’t be now sitting +4000.
Taking a quick run through the American League, New York is the +225 pennant favorite at the book and leads in handle (26.4%) with the Tigers (20.4%) tops in tickets.
For AL MVP, Houston’s Yordan Alvarez opened at +2800 but is now the -160 favorite as he pursues a possible Triple Crown, leading the Junior Circuit in homers and RBI and second in batting average. But Alvarez has taken quite little action overall for MVP with 6.6% of handle and 5.0% of tickets, so him winning would be good for the book.
On the other hand, should Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. win it, that would be a major loss for BetMGM. Witt is sitting at +500 but leads by far in tickets (15.6%) and handle (15.4%).
For the Cy Young, Yankees righty Cam Schlittler is the +115 favorite after opening way up at +10000. That’s going to hurt the book if he wins the Cy as Schlittler leads in handle by far at 18.9% and is second in tickets (8.3%). Detroit’s Tarik Skubal was the Opening Day favorite but is now +6000 and won’t win it. He leads in tickets at 9.0%.
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As for the National League, it’s pretty much all about Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers, as you might expect. L.A. was +180 when the season opened to win another pennant, now is -105 and leads in handle (23.0%) and tickets (12.5%). What’s scary is the Dodgers weren’t even all that healthy or consistent before the break, and they still have the best overall record. And have the finances to go get any trade help they might need – like perhaps Skubal.
The MVP race appears over in the NL with Ohtani, a two-time AL and two-time NL MVP, opening at -105 and now a ridiculous -10000. The only thing standing in his way might be that troublesome knee that kept Ohtani from the All-Star Game. He is taking by far the highest handle for MVP at 38.7%, but Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been red-hot for weeks and moved to a +700 second favorite. PCA leads in tickets at 8.9% but likely has to settle for second in the MVP voting.
Ohtani is not going to pull of the MVP/Cy Young double, it does not appear, as he’s a +6000 longshot. He does lead in tickets at the book at 13.5%, while former favorite and reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes does in handle at 25.1%. But he’s having a disappointing year and will not repeat priced +3500.
The award is Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski’s to lose as the -500 favorite, but he has been dealing with some fatigue, had his last start pre-break skipped and will not pitch this week out of it, either. I don’t think that’s a done deal by any means. “The Miz” is second in handle at 19.9% for the Cy.
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Unless the Rays make a big swing trade-wise to make a statement in the weak American League, sadly I do think it’s Yankees-Dodgers in October assuming Judge gets back healthy. But if the Braves get Skubal, that might change my mind for the NL champion. If the Dodgers get him, forget it. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
