Bracketology watch guide: Duke-Michigan headlines a weekend of No. 1 men’s hoops matchups

February 21, 2026 No Comments

Joe Lunardi’s men’s Bracketology March Madness watch guideplayNo. 1 Michigan faces off against No. 3 Duke (0:58)Myron Medcalf breaks down the matchup between Duke and Michigan. (0:58)Joe LunardiFeb 20, 2026, 01:10 PM ETClose

Resident college basketball bracketologist for ESPN
Contributor to SportsCenter, ESPN Insider
Published first public bracket in 1995

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By the time Selection Sunday arrives, there will have been plenty of movement in the projected field of 68 for the 2026 NCAA tournament regarding the teams that are in, as well as those looking to get in.

While our Tuesday and Friday Bracketology updates allow us to look at the race to March Madness holistically twice a week, results every day matter and can affect teams — whether they’re playing or not.

Men’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi is tracking every relevant game every night — and why shouldn’t you?

Here, we provide an inside look at the headlines and upcoming matchups that inform Joey Brackets’ calculations on any given night, as he projects the teams that could have their names called on Selection Sunday (March 15).

A couple of housekeeping things: This page will report every day around lunchtime, between Monday and Saturday. Games are listed in order of importance to bracket movement. A team’s projection on that day is listed in parentheses if not otherwise noted.

Scores available here. All times Eastern

Projected field of 68 |
NCAA tournament details |
Bubble Watch |
Champ Week schedule

Friday-Saturday, Feb. 20-21

HEADLINES

Welcome to the top line: There is a new No. 1 seed — Houston — for the first time since mid-December. Given this weekend’s matchups, it won’t be anywhere near that long before the next change on the top line.
Trouble for Tech: Texas Tech has taken its first tumble (to a 4-seed) since losing star JT Toppin to a torn ACL. It won’t be the last.
Movement in the field: Vanderbilt’s midweek loss at Missouri left room for Virginia to return as a protected seed (No. 16 overall).
Watching the bubble: The last five teams in the current field — Auburn through Santa Clara — are all vulnerable to varying degrees. This weekend, VCU (at Saint Louis on Friday) missed a chance to make a serious move up.
Where things stand: The NCAA men’s basketball committee will release its top 16 teams (through games to date) on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET on CBS. This takes into account the games through Wednesday, Feb. 18.

GAMES THAT COULD AFFECT THE BRACKET

(8) Saint Louis 88, (First Four Out) VCU 75. The Rams missed out on their best chance for a second A-10 bid. Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2
(1) Duke vs. (1) Michigan. The No. 1 overall seed is at stake in this colossal showdown in Washington, D.C. Saturday, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
(1) Arizona at (1) Houston. A historic Saturday of 1-seed matchups could leave the loser here as a No. 2. 3 p.m., ABC
(2) UConn at (6) Villanova. The recently deposed Huskies didn’t fall so far that a win here wouldn’t matter. 5:30 p.m., TNT
(7) Kentucky at (11) Auburn. Both teams are going in the wrong direction, with Auburn the most at risk. 8:30 p.m., ESPN
(2) Illinois at (Last Four In) UCLA. My hair will be the least of Mick Cronin’s worries if the Bruins can’t find a win. 8 p.m., Fox
(Last One In) Santa Clara at San Francisco. The Broncos face a must-win game up the peninsula. 10 p.m., CBSSN
(Next Four Out) West Virginia at (First One Out) TCU. The Horned Frogs make it by winning the games they should. 5 p.m., Peacock