The final major of the year concludes on Sunday at Royal Birkdale as the 2026 Open Championship heads for Round 4. Lucas Herbert held a two-stroke lead entering the weekend, but shot a 1-over 71 on Saturday to drop three shots behind new leader Sam Burns. Burns and Herbert both tied a major record on Friday by each shooting a 62, but then Burns followed that with a 65 on Saturday. Burns is two strokes ahead of Si Woo Kim and Ryan Fox. Other big names still within striking distance include Bryson DeChambeau (-6), Ludvig Aberg (-6), Tommy Fleetwood (-5) and Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, both at 4 under. Burns is the +125 favorite in the 2026 Open Championship odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Kim at +500 and Fox at +750. DeChambeau is priced at +1300, while Scheffler is a longer shot at +2700. Before locking in any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 British Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters — its fifth Masters in a row — as well as last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.
Now that the 2026 Open Championship is heading into Round 4, the model simulated the rest of the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
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2026 Open Championship Sunday predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2026: Herbert, who is tied for fourth heading into Sunday, falls all the way out of the top 10. He’s a golfer to fade in Open Championship Sunday best bets. Based on his major history and Round 1 and Round 3 this year, the second-round 62 appears to be an outlier. The model isn’t take a shot on him at +2000 and also recommends a fade in positional bets such as top 5 and top 10. See who else to fade here.
Another Open Championship prediction from the model: Aberg makes a strong run on Sunday. He’s a strong value at +1600 to win, and is worth considering at +125 as a top-5 finisher. He’s bounced back nicely from his first-round 71, shooting a 66 in Round 2 and a 67 in Round 3. He has a career top 5 in the Masters and PGA Championship, and now he’s well-positioned to add one at the Open Championship. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Open Championship Sunday picks
The model is also high on several other longshots, including one golfer going off at nearly 30-1 who makes a surprising run. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Open Championship weekend odds, field
Get full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions for Sunday here.
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Sam Burns +125
Si Woo Kim +500
Ryan Fox +750
Bryson DeChambeau +1300
Ryan Gerard +1500
Ludvig Åberg +1600
Lucas Herbert +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Scottie Scheffler +2700
Jackson Suber +3500
Jon Rahm +4500
Xander Schauffele +6500
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +8000
Shane Lowry +10000
Hideki Matsuyama +10000
Cameron Young +15000
Rory McIlroy +17500
Daniel Brown +17500
Justin Thomas +17500
Eric Cole +17500
Robert MacIntyre +17500
Jacob Bridgeman +35000
Collin Morikawa +35000
Max Homa +35000
Kazuma Kobori +35000
Sungjae Im +50000
Alex Smalley +50000
Cameron John +50000
Nico Echavarria +50000
Matt Wallace +75000
Rickie Fowler +100000
Peter Uihlein +100000
Sepp Straka +100000
John Parry +100000
Matthew Southgate +100000
Bud Cauley +100000
Min Woo Lee +100000
Pierceson Coody +100000
Chris Gotterup +100000
Sahith Theegala +100000
Marco Penge +100000
Brooks Koepka +100000
Hennie du Plessis +100000
Jesper Svensson +100000
Alex Fitzpatrick +100000
Corey Conners +100000
Naoyuki Kataoka +100000
Jordan Smith +100000
MJ Daffue +100000
Marcus Plunkett +100000
Adam Scott +100000
Eugenio Chacarra +100000
Russell Henley +100000
Kurt Kitayama +100000
JJ Spaun +100000
Shaun Norris +100000
Laurie Canter +100000
Keegan Bradley +100000
Thomas Detry +100000
Kristoffer Reitan +100000
Kazuki Higa +100000
Casey Jarvis +100000
Patrick Cantlay +100000
Nick Taylor +100000
Tyrrell Hatton +100000
Michael Brennan +100000
Ben Griffin +100000
Alex Noren +100000
Andy Sullivan +100000
Ryo Hisatsune +100000
Francesco Molinari +100000
Jack McDonald +100000
Jose Luis Ballester +100000
Patrick Reed +100000
Johnny Keefer +100000
Michael Thorbjornsen +100000
Victor Perez +100000
Aldrich Potgieter +100000
