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Dart throws. Super sleepers. Final-round fliers.
Digging for upside in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy football drafts can be branded in many ways. One thing is for sure: Landing a high-value lotto ticket is one of fantasy’s most satisfying experiences. It can also save your season and help you win your league. Here are the players I’m expecting to outkick their draft position.
Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 156.9)Editor’s Picks
Shough started 2025 as the Saints’ backup, but the 25-year-old rookie eventually unseated Spencer Rattler and took over the starting role in Week 9. Shough struggled initially — particularly with deep-ball accuracy — but soon found efficiency when targeting the short-to-intermediate levels of the field, managing a true completion percentage, which factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes, of 72.5% (11th among QBs), according to Player Profiler. Taking to Kellen Moore’s position-friendly system with relative ease, Shough orchestrated a head-turning, late-season surge, eclipsing 20 rushing yards or tossing multiple scores in seven of his last eight games while averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game (QB8) from Weeks 10 through 18.
New Orleans ranked first in tempo last season and should continue to push the pace under Moore. The potential uptick in attempts boosts Shough’s statistical ceiling and broadens his fantasy appeal, as does the arrival of WR Jordyn Tyson, whose ace ball skills and sharp route technique add a much-needed dimension to the offense. Shockingly, only two Saints wide receivers — Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed — topped 300 receiving yards. Tyson fills an obvious need while serving as a dangerous outlet for Shough.
In moments when the aerial attack sinks, Shough offers sneaky rushing appeal. Over the final two months of 2025, he ranked 10th among quarterbacks with 172 rushing yards. He also averaged 1.55 designed runs per game (11th highest), proving Moore is catering to his physical skill set. Given this tailor-made environment, Shough stands out as a top late-round target primed for a breakout season.
Kenny Gainwell, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 110.2)Gainwell is coming off a career year with the Steelers, finishing fourth among running backs in catches (73) and fifth in receiving yards (486). Skeptics might call it a fluke, but he flashed upside in Week 4 with Jaylen Warren out, exploding for more than 130 total yards and 30 fantasy points. Tampa Bay noted the numbers and handed Gainwell a two-year contract (with $10 million guaranteed) to step into Rachaad White’s former role.
Gainwell figures to stay busy in a Baker Mayfield-led offense. Mayfield struggled to stretch the field, ranking 25th in passer rating on balls thrown more than 5 yards downfield. Instead, he served up regular short-passing dominance, ranking fifth in passer rating on balls thrown 5 or fewer yards downfield last season. Several of those attempts were targeted at and caught by his running backs. In fact, Mayfield’s 90 RB targets ranked sixth in the NFL, while his 77 completions to RBs ranked fourth.
More than a change-of-pace back, Gainwell has demonstrated legit dukes as a runner, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on first downs last season. That’s a high mark for a “specialist.”
What Gainwell lacks in power and size, he makes up for as a one-cut specialist who wins with sharp lateral agility and sneaky contact balance. He’ll never profile as a feature back, but with Bucky Irving returning from offseason shoulder surgery and Sean Tucker tallying 151 total carries over his three seasons with the club, Gainwell profiles as a premium flex option with oodles of upside in PPR-friendly formats.
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 68.4)Your League, Your Rules
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Price slid into the first round of the NFL draft, nabbing one of the best available landing spots in the process. Kenneth Walker III’s departure opened up 250 touches on an offense that won the Super Bowl while ranking third in rush rate. Seattle’s commitment to the run won’t wane, but the team’s personnel deployment will look different. Zach Charbonnet is barely five months out of surgery to repair an ACL that he tore in mid-January. Though Mike Macdonald has been predictably effusive in his optimism regarding Charbonnet’s rehab and return, all signs point to Price opening 2026 as the Seahawks’ lead back.
A decisive downhill runner with excellent contact balance, Price famously shared the field with third pick Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. Though his opportunities weren’t as bountiful (particularly as a receiver), it’s worth noting that Price scored on a higher percentage of his carries (9.7%) than Love (9.0%) in 2025. Price also demonstrated awesome breakaway ability, averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry in college. Price is not a passive option. He is Seattle’s best and most immediate option.
Potential investors should expect the 22-year-old to share touches with George Holani and Emanuel Wilson at the beginning of the season, but a top-three strength of schedule and favorable opening slate figures to promptly showcase Price’s dynamic skill set. A challenging opener versus the Patriots gives way to prime opportunities against the Cardinals and Commanders, two teams that fielded bottom-10 run defenses last season. Projected to clear 220 carries and average upwards of 12 to 14 touches per game, Price has the talent and opportunity necessary to thrive as a top-25 fantasy RB. He makes for a solid positional flex option in the seventh round of drafts.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 96.0)I have not been a Watson apologist since he entered the league four years ago. I also know better than to never say never. Watson and the Packers agreed to a four-year extension worth an estimated $110.5 million, signaling a hefty investment in the 27-year-old receiver. With over 130 targets vacated via the departures of Romeo Doubs (Patriots) and Dontayvion Wicks (Eagles), Watson figures to experience a boost in volume, potentially exceeding his previous career high of 5.9 targets per game (2023).
Despite the decent per-game average, Watson has yet to draw more than 66 targets in a season, as injuries have regularly rendered him unavailable. When on the field, however, Watson has shined as a premium deep threat who can win all over the formation. In possession of 96th percentile speed (4.36 40-yard dash), Watson has registered an average career TD length of 23.5 yards. That sets up nicely when paired with QB Jordan Love, who has aggressively paced all qualified NFL quarterbacks in deep throw rate since 2023.
Fans were again teased by this connection after the speedster returned from an ACL tear in late October last season. Watson registered a team target share of 18.3% (WR31), averaged 13.2 fantasy points per contest (WR21) and recorded six receiving scores (T-WR5) from Weeks 8 through 17. When healthy, Watson is a clear difference-maker. In fact, he has posted 14.9 fantasy points per game whenever he has drawn six or more looks in a matchup. The upside is undeniable. Thankfully, the volatility is baked into his current 10th-round ADP.
Jalen Nailor, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 169.7)NFL Playoff Predictor
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A pretty famous football guy once stated, “Success happens when opportunity meets preparation.” Jimmy Johnson probably wasn’t trying to help your fantasy draft, but his advice is still spot on, particularly in the case of Nailor. The 27-year-old spent the past four years in Minnesota, including the past two as the Vikings’ No. 4 option behind Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
Nailor drew a career-high 53 looks while leading the team’s wide receiving corps in yards per reception (15.3) and touchdowns (four) in 2025. Though he has never come close to posting a 1,000-yard campaign, he has demonstrated legit vertical ability and red zone appeal — two qualities the Raiders desperately need.
Las Vegas signed Nailor to a three-year, $35 million contract this past spring. He’ll reunite with QB Kirk Cousins and could open the season as the Silver and Black’s No. 1 WR. There’s ample room to produce in the desert. In fact, a Raiders wide receiver hasn’t cleared 15 fantasy points since Tre Tucker went bananas in garbage time at Washington last September. Deployed as a focal point in Klint Kubiak’s offense and on a team that figures to be chasing points, Nailor could flirt with upwards of 80 targets. Other than Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, he’s the Raiders’ next-best shot to produce. Throwing a dart his way might be speculative, but as the final pick of your draft, the risk is negligible.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Miami Dolphins (ADP: Undrafted)This is simple addition by subtraction. The Dolphins subtracted Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller, moves that add to Dulcich’s breakout appeal. He has battled lower-body injuries since entering the league, but started to flash once healthy down the stretch of 2025. The former third-round selection demonstrated his downfield appeal and YAC ability, averaging 12.9 yards per grab (TE4) and 7.6 yards after the catch per reception (TE2) from Weeks 8 through 18.
Those traits should be further highlighted in Bobby Slowik’s position-friendly scheme, which afforded Dalton Schultz more than 80 looks in 2023 and 2024. Given the unproven nature of Miami’s pass-catching corps, Dulcich could draw upwards of 90 targets, working as a capable middle-of-the-field weapon and seam-stretcher.
Summer reports suggest that new QB Malik Willis and the veteran tight end have made a point of building chemistry. Even if the connection doesn’t lift the whole offense, Dulcich can still produce for fantasy. In fact, three of the top four TEs played for a bottom-10 scoring offense, and seven of the top 10 TEs played for losing teams in 2025. Having averaged 2.5 fantasy points per catch for his career (the same number Kyle Pitts Sr. managed last season) and given that he is going undrafted in most leagues, Dulcich is a zero-risk dart throw for managers looking to wait at the position.
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