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Good luck predicting the 2026 MLB trade deadline. With chaotic wild-card races in both leagues, we could see a busy trade deadline if front offices step up and take some risks. Or a slow one if everyone decides to hold onto their players.
Last year’s deadline got some buzz when the Arizona Diamondbacks slumped at the end of July and decided to trade Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor and Merrill Kelly, adding some decent names to an otherwise soft class of trade candidates — and the Minnesota Twins’ decision to trade almost half their roster also added to the excitement.
There are several teams in a similar position this year — starting with the Detroit Tigers — so we might see more major leaguer-for-major leaguer trades, like the one between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals that saw Connelly Early exchanged for Curtis Mead.
Jeff Passan’s final trade deadline preview is out, so let’s use the intel he has to get into some trade dominos and see how the deadline might unfold for some of the biggest names, starting with a two-time Cy Young winner and one of baseball’s best pitchers.
Last year, six of the 10 players we listed were traded; in 2024, it was seven of 10 — although, nailing the exact team isn’t quite so easy. Let’s see how we do this year.
Skubal remains the fulcrum of the entire trade deadline, the clear difference-maker who can not only impact the race to reach the playoffs, but the postseason itself. Keep in mind, however: While Skubal is the top player who might get traded, the top player isn’t always traded.
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In 2023, the Los Angeles Angels decided to keep Shohei Ohtani at the deadline for a fruitless run at the postseason (they only fell 16 wins short). In 2024, Garrett Crochet was the top target, but the Chicago White Sox held on to him until the offseason. Last year, it was Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore; Ryan is still with the Twins (although they traded everyone else at the deadline) while the Nationals held Gore until trading him in the ensuing offseason to the Texas Rangers.
Unlike Crochet, Ryan and Gore, however, Skubal is heading to free agency after this season. The Tigers face one of the most difficult deadline decisions in years given their place in the standings and Skubal’s trade value. You wonder whether Wednesday’s loss made the decision a little easier, when the Tigers blew a 7-0 lead to the Orioles — with Skubal on the mound.
If he is traded, the Los Angeles Dodgers loom as the betting favorite to land him. No doubt Ohtani’s lingering biceps soreness will factor into the Dodgers’ thinking. The Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees have been mentioned as possibilities, and Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn’t afraid to make a big move, like he did last year in acquiring Jhoan Duran.
But let’s start our dominos with a different team: the Braves. History indicates the biggest trades usually involve teams already in first place; front offices are reluctant to give up top prospects just to chase a wild-card spot. Think of 2021, when the New York Mets traded Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez and didn’t even make the playoffs. So that probably eliminates the Yankees and Phillies as Skubal landing spots.
The Dodgers, Brewers and Rays all have better farm systems than the Braves — but Atlanta does have the best pitching prospect among the four teams in Cam Caminiti, and the Tigers would likely want a young pitcher in return. The Braves also have the more acute need for a starter: Their rotation hasn’t been nearly as good in June and July as it was in April and May. Adding Skubal to a rotation with Chris Sale would make for a lethal one-two punch for the playoffs.
Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos has been reluctant through the years to trade prospects like Caminiti, but that’s who it might take to land Skubal.
OK, if the Dodgers don’t get Skubal, what do they do? So much of their decision rides on the health of Ohtani, Blake Snell (currently rehabbing in the minors) and Tyler Glasnow (about to begin a rehab assignment). Then factor in Roki Sasaki, who alternates between “Yes, he looks like a potential playoff starter” and “No way you want him starting in October.” There’s enough uncertainty there that adding another starter probably makes sense.
Detmers won’t be easy to pry away from the Angels since he’s under team control for two more years, and the Dodgers and Angels haven’t made a significant trade since Andrew Heaney was traded for Howie Kendrick in 2014, but the Dodgers have the prospects the Angels need. The Angels need to put aside their cross-city envy and make the best deal for the organization.
Meanwhile, if the Dodgers do trade for a starter, it’s only worthwhile for them if it’s an impact pitcher who can start a playoff game. Outside of Skubal, Detmers is probably next on that list, with the Twins apparently looking to keep Ryan once again. Detmers has pitched better than his 3-7 record and 4.03 ERA indicate, holding batters to a .214 average and .276 OBP with a high strikeout rate.
Skubal to the Brewers would be great for the sport — let’s be honest, nobody wants to see Skubal end up with the Dodgers — and for a franchise looking for its first World Series title. But it’s also not in the Brewers’ DNA to make that kind of trade. They’ve been playoff contenders every season since 2017 and their biggest deadline acquisition was Mike Moustakas in 2018. In 2024, when they were in first place, their big move was Frankie Montas, a starter with a 5.01 ERA. In 2025, when they were in first place, it was catcher Danny Jansen.
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But they do need a starting pitcher. The Brewers’ rotation has been excellent, but Kyle Harrison is on the injured list with forearm tightness and Brandon Woodruff is out for the season, forcing the team to start Thomas Pannone on Wednesday. They’re also going to want to limit Jacob Misiorowski’s innings down the stretch.
Peralta hasn’t had a good season with a 4.99 ERA and was nearly in tears after his start on Sunday, telling reporters that he “let down” the organization and the fans. If there’s a team willing to take a chance on Peralta, however, it should be Milwaukee, where he went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA in 2025. The Brewers could trade for Peralta and also add a reliever while still keeping all their top prospects.
To quote Bryce Harper: “I think we need some help.” The Phillies are over .500 but have been outscored, so they could use help on both sides of the ball. The reality: It’s always easier to acquire a pitcher at the trade deadline than a hitter, and the state of the Phillies’ farm system — not strong — probably limits their ability to land Skubal. The rotation is strong at the top with Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo, but Aaron Nola is unusable in a playoff series and they don’t have a fifth starter. The Phillies are 14-34 when one of the big three doesn’t start.
In other words, they could use a starter not just for the postseason, but maybe even just to get there. After playing well in May and June after interim manager Don Mattingly took over, they haven’t played well in July and are hardly a lock to reach October. The Blue Jays’ deadline plans remain flexible, but being in last place in the division and nine games under .500 should lead to a clear directive. Gausman is one of their many impending free agents, and while his ERA is a run higher than last season, his peripheral numbers are right in line with his past performance. He is durable, heading to a sixth straight season with 30 starts, and he pitched well last postseason (2.93 ERA in 30 innings).
If the Rays don’t land Skubal, and if some of the other top starting pitchers are off the board, they should pivot to a position player, since the offense is so heavily dependent on Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda. Shortstop is a possibility, and Zach Neto would be a perfect fit if the Angels tear everything down, but the Rays can live with Taylor Walls’ defense if they upgrade at another position. Arraez is a sure bet to be traded, heading to free agency and with the Giants out of the playoff picture. He’s also having an excellent season with a .328 average and better defensive metrics at second base. Rays second basemen are in the bottom third of the majors in OPS, so Arraez and his .364 OBP would fit in nicely at the top of the lineup.
New York general manager Brian Cashman isn’t going to sit around quietly, not with Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge injured and Anthony Volpe dropping routine pop flies. The hottest rumor is the Yankees lusting over Mason Miller, which makes sense since they will need to replace David Bednar next season, and Cashman’s recent inclination has been to trade for players who have future years of team control. Will the San Diego Padres trade Miller? It’s not in general manager A.J. Preller’s nature to give up, and a recent five-game winning streak through Wednesday has the Padres back in the wild-card picture. The Francisco Lindor rumors are also fun, but the Yankees aren’t about to block shortstop-of-the-future George Lombard Jr. while taking on Lindor’s big contract.
So that leaves catcher. Ryan Jeffers has been the name most connected to the Yankees, but the Twins have reported they’re looking to add bullpen help and make a run at the division. Tyler Stephenson of the Cincinnati Reds is a possibility, but he’s a weak defender (last in the majors in catcher framing runs). Both of those guys are free agents anyway. Hicks is the better fit, even though he has spent more time at DH than catcher for the Marlins. Still, he’s a good offensive player with elite plate discipline, under team control through 2030, and the Marlins are reportedly open to trading him, as Joe Mack is the team’s catcher of the present and future.
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We’ve already traded four starting pitchers, but we’re hardly done in that department. The Cubs can only imagine where they’d be with a healthy pitching staff, as Cade Horton, Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera are all on the IL (not to mention a slew of relievers as well). Matthew Boyd is back from his own IL stint but the Cubs just designated Jameson Taillon for assignment after he coughed up 25 home runs in just 76 innings (the second-highest home run rate ever for a pitcher with at least 75 innings).
Holmes comes with his own health risk since he has missed more than two months with a broken leg, but he has made a couple rehab starts and isn’t far away from returning. He has a $12 million player option for 2027 that he’s likely to turn down, so teams will view him as a rental pitcher, but that lowers the cost to obtain him. He had a 2.39 ERA before the injury and a 3.53 ERA in 2025, so if he throws well upon his return, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to view him as a possible Game 1 playoff starter for the Cubs. Chicago could easily expand this trade to include one of the Mets’ relievers, too, like Luke Weaver.
Since we have the Tigers trading Skubal, it follows that the next domino would be for them to trade Torres, who is also heading to free agency. The Red Sox thought they added the right-handed bat they needed in Mead, but he subsequently broke his wrist in his first game with the team. The plan was to play him at second base, so Torres fits there. He doesn’t have Mead’s power, but his .385 OBP works just fine at the top of the lineup.
The Red Sox are still reportedly searching for a shortstop, but it would take a blockbuster to acquire Neto, and the Houston Astros are apparently intent on keeping Jeremy Pena. Otto Lopez of the Miami Marlins is another possibility, as they’re reportedly willing to trade him — although, their sweep of Philadelphia has perhaps flipped the Marlins’ deadline mindset. What about Lindor? He is signed through 2031, and Boston’s recent history shows it wouldn’t be interested in taking on that contract.
Similarly to the Tigers, if the Blue Jays decide to deal, Varsho is another one of their free agents whom they could move. He’s a premium defender in center field with a below-average bat — after hitting 20 home runs in just 248 at-bats last year, he has seven in 324 this year. The Diamondbacks have played themselves into a wild-card position and could use both a hitter and a starting pitcher. Varsho looks like the right fit for them, as they’ve started four different players in center field just in July.
The Mariners have six starters, with Kade Anderson more than ready for a big league call-up, so it’s likely they trade one of them, and Hancock’s name has popped up most often. That’s in part because he has arguably been their best starter, but also because Luis Castillo’s contract will make him difficult to trade and George Kirby’s mediocre season has decreased his trade value.
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Hancock is under team control through 2030 and the Mariners will likely want a major league bat in return. Ivan Herrera is a possible match here if the Mariners see value in a full-time DH (they should) and occasional backup catcher. The Cardinals have plenty of catching depth but need pitching help. These two teams made the Brendan Donovan trade this past offseason, so they’ve worked together before — and this trade would help both in the present and beyond.
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