The NFL has a very strict policy in place when it comes to gambling on football, but there’s nothing in the rule book that would prevent someone from talking about what they would bet on, and that’s exactly what Haslam did here. Now, Haslam did note that he would “never” actually bet, but he seems pretty confident that the over will hit this season. 

The Browns’ over/under is currently slightly juiced toward the over at DraftKings: 

• Over 5.5 wins (-130)
• Under 5.5 wins (+110)

After an offseason in which the Browns traded Myles Garrett to the Rams, Haslam isn’t expecting his team to be a Super Bowl contender this year, but he does think they’ll improve on their 5-12 record from last year. 

“We want to be a contending playoff team in 2027,” Haslam reported, via The Athletic. “That doesn’t mean we can’t make it in ’26.”

Why Haslam’s betting advice could end up paying off

When it comes to predicting the Browns’ over/under for the season, Haslam pretty much had to predict the over, because it would have looked absolutely awkward if he had taken the under (Not that the Browns have ever been worried about making things awkward). That being reported, Haslam could have simply NOT mentioned the Browns’ win total, but he put it out there, so now, we’re going to take a look at whether his prediction is realistic. 

Although the Browns’ roster certainly has some big question marks with the biggest one being at quarterback, this team does have one of the best defenses in the NFL — even without Garrett — and that might be enough to carry Cleveland to at least six wins. 

One thing working in the Browns’ favor this year is the fact that they have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. Here’s why that matters: The AFC team with the easiest schedule has finished with a winning record in eight straight seasons, including last year, when the AFC champion Patriots improved from 4-13 in 2024 to 14-3 in 2025. 

Having a new head coach has been a jolt of energy for several bad teams in recent years. Over the past three seasons, the AFC team with the easiest strength of schedule has improved its record by an average of 7.7 wins, and all three of those teams had a new head coach going into the season. 

• 2023: Texans. After going 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans had the easiest strength of schedule of any AFC team in 2023 and they ended up being a surprise playoff team at 10-7 during DeMeco Ryans’ first season as Houston’s head coach.
• 2024: Chargers. After going 5-12 in 2023, they had the AFC’s easiest strength of schedule in 2024 and they took advantage of that by going 11-6 and making the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season on the job.
• 2025: Patriots. After going 4-13 in 2024, the Patriots bounced back in a big way while playing against the AFC’s easiest strength of schedule in 2025. In Mike Vrabel’s first season on the job, the Patriots went 14-3 and ended up making a run all the way to the Super Bowl. 

In 2026, the Browns will have a new head coach in Todd Monken and he’ll be looking to replicate the success of those three coaches. 

Another thing to like about the schedule is that the Browns are matched up against the AFC South and NFC South this year. Last year, the 49ers were in the exact same spot as the Browns: They had the easiest strength of schedule in 2025 and they also got to play both South divisions. After going 6-11 in 2024, the 49ers used their scheduling advantage to go 12-5 in 2025. 

Of course, no one is going to mistake the Browns for the 49ers, but getting to play both South divisions seems to help. The last two times an entire division was matched up against both South divisions, that division produced at least three teams that finished with winning records. 

• 2021: AFC East plays NFC South and AFC South (The four AFC East teams combined to average 8.5 wins)
• 2025: NFC West plays NFC South and AFC South (The four NFC West combined to average 10.3 wins)

This should have the Browns feeling somewhat confident that they might be able to surprise some people this year. 

If the Browns are going to be good this year, the defense is likely going to have to carry the load. The defense gave up the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL last season, and although they lost Garrett, Cleveland did add both Jared Verse and Quincy Williams, so the unit likely won’t take a huge step back. 

Offensively, the Browns have a QB battle going on between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson that will likely go down to the wire. If the Browns can get just average QB play, they should be able to improve on their win total from last season. The Browns’ offense only topped 20 points three times in 2026, and when you can’t score, that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. 

One advantage for the Browns’ offense this year is the hiring of Monken. The former Ravens offensive coordinator knows the AFC North well, and that knowledge alone could lead to some small improvements on the field for the offense. 

Speaking of the AFC North, the Browns have won at least two division games in eight straight seasons. Basically, no matter how bad they’ve been over the years, they’ve always been able to find a few wins against their division rivals. If they can once again win two division games in 2026, that means they’d only need to win four of their 11 non-divisional games to hit the over on 5.5 wins. There were five teams in the NFL that went 4-13 or worse last season, and the Browns will face four of them this season (Raiders, Jets, Titans, Giants). This certainly feels like a schedule where the Browns can eke out six wins, so Haslam might be on to something with his betting advice.