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At this point in the offseason, everyone usually assumes their team can make a run to the NCAA tournament, based on information currently at hand. They also need that one friend who will hold their hand and tell them the truth — even if it’s not easy to digest. (Sorry, Rutgers.)
Usually.
Our attempt to project the floor (how bad could it get?) and ceiling (how good can it get?) for every team in the major conferences would normally bank on assessing the sport at large, and analyzing rosters and offseason moves.
But, chaos unexpectedly ensued in the month of July. A recent federal court case in Colorado granted players who were excluded from the NCAA’s new age-based eligibility rules (“five for five”) a chance to play in 2026-27. The NCAA is appealing that ruling, so things might continue to change in the coming month.
Until more is known about the fate of this pool of players, we’ve decided not to factor those players into our projections.
We begin with the Big Ten, home of the reigning national champions, and a conference particularly hit with a series of major moves just in the past few weeks. Teams are ordered by their total win ceiling projections.
2025-26 finish: 27-8, 15-5 Big Ten, lost in the Sweet 16
CEILING
Total wins: 35
Big Ten finish: First
Postseason finish: National champion
FLOOR
Total wins: 25
Big Ten finish: Fifth
Postseason finish: Sweet 16
Tom Izzo has a roster built to win a national championship. Jeremy Fears Jr., a second team AP All-American last season, is the early betting favorite to be the national player of the year. Coen Carr and Kur Teng are both experienced, returning talent and ready for breakout seasons. They’ll have help from incoming prospect Jasiah Jervis (SC Next 100 No. 26), a 6-foot-5 wing who can create off the dribble and who gives Michigan State another offensive catalyst. That reported, Izzo lost a pair of double-figure scorers (Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper) who gave last season’s team a brand of toughness this crew might not be able to match.
2025-26 finish: 37-3, 19-1 Big Ten, won the national championship
Editor’s Picks
CEILING
Total wins: 34
Big Ten finish: First
Postseason finish: National champion
FLOOR
Total wins: 22
Big Ten finish: Seventh
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
The coaching job at Michigan wasn’t open long after Dusty May decided to leave for the NBA: athletic director Warde Manuel quickly declared associate head coach Mike Boynton would take over, stabilizing the program. Elliot Cadeau, the 2026 Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player, standout Trey McKenney and incoming five-star recruit Brandon McCoy all declared they would stay. That means the race for the Big Ten title — and, perhaps the national title, too — could go through Ann Arbor. Then again, last season’s dominant squad was led by one of the game’s top coaches, and three eventual NBA lottery picks, none of whom are with the program.
2025-26 finish: 28-9, 15-5 Big Ten, lost in the Final Four
CEILING
Total wins: 32
Big Ten finish: First
Postseason finish: Final Four
FLOOR
Total wins: 25
Big Ten finish: Fifth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32
For three straight seasons, Brad Underwood’s group has finished top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom. Based on that recent history, the team will again boast one of the nation’s most imposing offensive units, especially with three of last season’s top five scorers returning. That’s the positive. The obstacles: It’s also never easy to replace a leader such as lottery pick Keaton Wagler, who averaged 18.0 points in the NCAA tournament and carried the Illini to the Final Four. Plus, David Mirkovic (13.3 PPG, 38% from beyond the arc), who was ready for a starring role this season, underwent surgery on his foot this week. If he can return to 100% early enough, this team’s ceiling is raised significantly.
2025-26 finish: 24-12, 13-7 Big Ten, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 32
CEILING
Total wins: 30
Big Ten finish: First
Postseason finish: Final Four
FLOOR
Total wins: 21
Big Ten finish: Seventh
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
The projections for Mick Cronin’s team changed when he signed Nikola Kusturica — a 17-year-old Serbian prospect who could vie for the No. 1 pick in the 2028 NBA draft — earlier this month. Kusturica was widely regarded as one of the top international prospects available. Between his arrival and the return of three of UCLA’s top six scorers, the Bruins have the goods to earn another NCAA tournament berth. If the returning vets can jell with Kusturica and the four portal signees coming to Westwood, the Bruins could be a top-25 squad for the bulk of the season.
2025-26 finish: 28-7, 15-5 Big Ten, lost in the Sweet 16
CEILING
Total wins: 30
Big Ten finish: First
Postseason finish: Elite Eight
FLOOR
Total wins: 20
Big Ten finish: Fifth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
The most magical season in team history ended with a first Sweet 16 appearance and Fred Hoiberg being named AP national coach of the year. A fourth consecutive 20-win campaign and a third NCAA tournament appearance in four years all seem possible for a group that will be led by all-Big Ten first teamer Pryce Sandfort and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Braden Frager. But looming over the Cornhuskers is the fact that they lost more than 40 points per game from the roster. They will also need to rely heavily on their newcomers to retain a top-10 defense.
2025-26 finish: 18-14, 7-13 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament second round
CEILING
Total wins: 30
Big Ten finish: Third
Postseason finish: Elite Eight
FLOOR
Total wins: 20
Big Ten finish: Ninth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
Eric Musselman reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament in three of his final four years at Arkansas. He’s still chasing his first tournament appearance in his third year in Los Angeles, but the drought should end with the arrival of a decorated recruiting class topped by Adonis Ratliff and Darius Ratliff, McDonald’s All Americans and the sons of former NBA All-Star Theo Ratliff. Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas are also back. But Musselman also had talent a season ago, and that squad imploded. Will he find the right mix of chemistry and star power this season?
2025-26 finish: 21-13, 12-8 Big Ten, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64
CEILING
Total wins: 28
Big Ten finish: Third
Postseason finish: Elite Eight
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FLOOR
Total wins: 20
Big Ten finish: Eighth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
The Buckeyes could be a Big Ten sleeper, provided they pull the pieces together. Doing so will demand another outstanding season from John Mobley Jr. (15.7 PPG, 41% from 3), who will play next to incoming five-star and projected top-10 draft pick Anthony Thompson. Jake Diebler also added a strong portal class, including Justin Pippen — the son of NBA legend Scottie Pippen — who led Cal in scoring last season. The Buckeyes went dancing this past March thanks to a late push. It’s easy to predict Selection Sunday should feel more comfortable next year.
2025-26 finish: 30-9, 13-7 Big Ten, lost in the Elite Eight
CEILING
Total wins: 28
Big Ten finish: Third
Postseason finish: Sweet 16
FLOOR
Total wins: 18
Big Ten finish: Seventh
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
Matt Painter can’t replace two-time AP All-American Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer — his top three scorers for two straight seasons and the backbone of his roster for four years. That’s just the reality, despite him adding a top-15 recruiting class and returning other key vets. The gap between Purdue’s floor and ceiling is vast because of the unknowns. Can four-star recruit Luke Ertel lead as the team’s new point guard? How will Princeton transfer Caden Pierce adjust to Painter’s system? Is C.J. Cox (8.5 PPG, 37% from 3) ready to step up?
2025-26 finish: 24-11, 14-6 Big Ten, lost in the NCAA tournament round of 64
CEILING
Total wins: 26
Big Ten finish: Fourth
Postseason finish: Sweet 16
FLOOR
Total wins: 20
Big Ten finish: Eighth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
Greg Gard has been one of the most consistent coaches in the country. He haswon at least 20 games in seven of the past eight seasons. He also has exceeded expectations in a handful of those campaigns, including a season ago when John Blackwell became a breakout star and the Badgers earned a 5-seed. Gard will have to reset again with both Blackwell and top scorer Nick Boyd gone, though his team could thrive with 7-footer Nolan Winter (13.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG), and if Australian point guard Owen Foxwell can make the transition from international standout to Big Ten star at a crucial position.
2025-26 finish: 18-14, 9-11 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament second round
CEILING
Total wins: 25
Big Ten finish: Fourth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32
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2026-27 FLOOR
Total wins: 19
Big Ten finish: Eighth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
Second-year head coach Darian DeVries has assembled a roster that could earn the program’s first NCAA tournament bid since 2023. Former all-ACC standout Markus Burton (21.3 PPG, 38% from 3 in 2024-25) will be the focus of this plan. Coming off an ankle injury that limited him to 10 games at Notre Dame last season, Burton adds a consistent threat to an Indiana offense that must replace the key players from a team that finished top-40 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Villanova standout Bryce Lindsay and a good recruiting class round out a roster worthy of ending a postseason drought in Bloomington.
2025-26 finish: 12-21, 4-16 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament second round
CEILING
Total wins: 24
Big Ten finish: Sixth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 32
FLOOR
Total wins: 18
Postseason finish: 10th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
The return of Pharrel Payne (17.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) from a season-ending leg injury gives the Terrapins a much-needed anchor. Andre Mills finished last season strong, including a 30-point performance against Illinois. Former Arkansas guard D.J. Wagner, once the top-ranked high school player in the country, is aiming to resurrect his career in College Park. Babatunde Oladotun (SC Next 100 No. 10) is one of the best incoming players. The pieces are all there, in theory, for a team that’s looking to improve on last season’s 12-win campaign and struggled even before Payne went down (196th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
2025-26 finish: 24-13, 10-10 Big Ten, lost in the Elite Eight
CEILING
Total wins: 24
Big Ten finish: Sixth
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
FLOOR
Total wins: 17
Big Ten finish: 10th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
Most Big Ten teams lost an important player from last season’s roster. But none of those players carried the load for their squads that Bennett Stirtz did for the Hawkeyes. He helped the Hawkeyes make an Elite Eight run, which also turned Ben McCollum into one of the hottest coaching candidates in the country. McCollum chose to reject those opportunities and sign an extension to return to Iowa City, ready to sustain the momentum of last season. To do that, he’ll need Cooper Koch (12 points in Iowa’s upset second-round win over Florida) to blossom, and for four-star recruit Ethan Harris to quickly mature after a successful high school career in Washington.
2025-26 finish: 12-20, 5-15 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament first round
2026-27 CEILING
Total wins: 22
Big Ten finish: Seventh
Postseason finish: NCAA tournament round of 64
FLOOR
Total wins: 14
Big Ten finish: 14th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
The Ducks were ravaged by injuries last season, failing to meet preseason expectations. Then, all top five scorers left. If this new roster can stay healthy, Dana Altman could launch a quick turnaround in Eugene. It starts with four-star recruit Tajh Ariza, the son of former NBA standout Trevor Ariza, being ready to contribute. He’ll have help from Fred Payne — who averaged 15.8 points at Boston College last season, including scoring 20 or more points in nine games — and two other transfers who averaged double figures at their last stops. Remember, though: The Ducks had more talent and depth a season ago and managed to win only 12 games.
2025-26 finish: 16-17, 7-13 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament third round
CEILING
Total wins: 20
Big Ten finish: 10th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
FLOOR
Total wins: 15
Big Ten finish: 15th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
In the three seasons before he came to Washington, Danny Sprinkle led Montana State and Utah State to three NCAA tournament appearances and 80 combined wins. At Washington, he has won only 29 games overall and gone 11-29 in the Big Ten in two seasons. Injuries contributed to last season’s challenges, but even with Hannes Steinbach, an eventual first-round draft pick, the Huskies failed to finish .500 in league play. It’s not all bad news: Promising veteran Wesley Yates III is due for a breakout and Texas Tech transfer LeJuan Watts averaged 15.0 points and 6.5 rebounds in the NCAA tournament. But the Huskies seem closer to their floor than their ceiling.
2025-26 finish: 15-18, 8-12 Big Ten, lost in Big Ten tournament second round
CEILING
Total wins: 18
Big Ten finish: 10th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
FLOOR
Total wins: 15
Big Ten finish: 12th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
In his first season in Minneapolis, Niko Medved had a handful of positive moments, including wins over NCAA tournament teams Michigan State and UCLA. There are reasons to think he could build on those positives: Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (13.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Isaac Asuma (10.9 PPG) and Bobby Durkin (10.2 PPG, 39% from 3), among the team’s top five scorers, are all back. Medved has also added four-star recruit Chadrack Mpoyi. But this is also a team that lost seven Big Ten games in a row, and then lost their best player, Cade Tyson.
2025-26 finish: 15-19, 5-15 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament third round
CEILING
Total wins: 17
Big Ten finish: 12th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
FLOOR
Total wins: 12
Big Ten finish: 18th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
Chris Collins made history in 2017 when he led Northwestern to the NCAA tournament for the first time. Years later, the NIL and transfer portal climate turned the school’s prestigious academic reputation — Northwestern has one of the lowest acceptance rates in the country — into a challenge. As a result, this is a crucial season. Bellarmine transfer Jack Karasinski (21.7 PPG, 42% from beyond the arc) excelled last season in matchups against major-conference opponents. Now, he’ll have the opportunity to prove he can do it again in a strong Big Ten. Even if he and the other portal standouts Collins landed can mesh, soaring in this league probably will prove difficult.
2025-26 finish: 14-20, 6-14 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament third round
CEILING
Total wins: 16
Big Ten finish: 14th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
FLOOR
Total wins: 10
Big Ten finish: 18th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
When Steve Pikiell signed future lottery picks Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper before the 2024-25 season, he faced questions about the viability of Rutgers becoming a destination for elite talent. He still doesn’t have answers after a third consecutive sub-.500 season, a span that includes the season he had those top-five draft picks. He’ll again attempt to stop a landslide, a responsibility that rests largely on the shoulders of returning standout Tariq Francis (17.0 PPG) and incoming four-star recruit Imahri Wooten leading a group of mid-major additions.
2025-26 finish: 12-20, 3-17 Big Ten, lost in the Big Ten tournament first round
CEILING
Total wins: 15
Big Ten finish: 14th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
FLOOR
Total wins: 10
Big Ten finish: 18th
Postseason finish: Will miss the NCAA tournament
Three seasons ago, his first at Penn State, Mike Rhoades finished 9-11 in the Big Ten — a solid start for a squad that had lost top players from an NCAA tournament team. Unfortunately, things never got better for the Nittany Lions: They finished second-to-last in the Big Ten in 2024-25, last in the league last season. Penn State no longer has its top three scorers from last season, but it does have new staff members, a couple of international prospects — including 6-9 Serbian Aleksandar Zecevic — and multiple mid-major standouts. Rhoades has touted his team’s length and athleticism, but seeing will be believing here as this program attempts to climb out of the Big Ten’s basement.
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