2026 WNBA playoff picture: How six teams can clinch the final berthKareem CopelandAug 6, 2026, 08:00 AM ETMultiple Authors
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CHICAGO — Nneka Ogwumike wasn’t shaken with Sunday’s late-night news that Kelsey Plum was traded from the Los Angeles Sparks to the Phoenix Mercury. With 15 seasons in the league as a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and a champion, not much can surprise her when it comes to WNBA movement.
The odd part of it, however, is the move — which brought in a first-round pick in the 2027 draft as well as second-year guard Monique Akoa Makani — was made with an eye on the future. The Sparks have a veteran squad, with Ogwumike, Ariel Atkins, Dearica Hamby and Erica Wheeler all signing in the spring to compete for a title this season. But Plum, a five-time All-Star and two-time champion who joined the Sparks ahead of the 2025 season, made it known she was ready for a new home and would be actively looking in free agency after this season.
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“I’ve been in situations where it was unexpected for everyone,” Ogwumike reported. “It wasn’t so unexpected for us. We want her to be happy. We want her to be healthy. So, I think that there’s a bit of comfort for everyone knowing that, and also being able to get it done in a way where I feel like everybody’s OK with it. It breathes a little bit of life into the situation.”
Despite being in that weird bit of limbo, the Sparks are in 10th place with an 11-18 record and are six games back — along with the Chicago Sky, who have a slightly better winning percentage than Los Angeles — from the Washington Mystics (17-12) in eighth place.
Every team in the WNBA has between 11 and 16 regular-season games remaining, but the Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries, Dallas Wings, Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream would need a disaster to happen to fall out of a playoff berth. Washington controls its own playoff destiny, but hope remains for the Sparks and few other teams in the race for the eighth and final spot in the postseason. The New York Liberty are only a half-game ahead of the Mystics, but they also seem like a lock with Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu healthy.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the race for No. 8.
Washington Mystics (17-12)
If they weren’t the youngest team in the league, the Mystics would essentially be considered a lock with a five-game lead and 16 games remaining. But this is a new situation for the youngsters, and the pressure to close out the regular season and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2023 is a real thing. No team currently not in the playoffs can secure more than 28 wins, and the only team capable of reaching 28 wins is the Sparks if they go undefeated. The Mystics can hit 29 wins by finishing on a 12-4 run. If they continue to win at a 0.571 clip, they’ll get to 25 wins and likely hold off the rest. Their active five-game winning streak, the second longest in the league, increases the confidence level in a postseason berth.
The Mystics will also have the opportunity to keep the rest of the teams competing for the final spot at bay as they play the Mercury three times, the Sparks twice, the Sky twice and the Fire once.
Los Angeles Sparks (11-18)
The fact that the Sparks are still in this conversation after a recent 3-11 stretch, including a six-game losing streak, is a testament to those playing heavy minutes in Los Angeles. Between Ogwumike, Atkins, Hamby and Wheeler, that’s 17 All-Star bids and a championship for all but Wheeler. With Plum, this was supposed to be a title contender. Without her, that group plus Rae Burrell, Cameron Brink and newly acquired Akoa Makani is a playoff-quality roster. That same group, however, has struggled throughout the year.
The Sparks will need help from the Mystics, but they’ll also face them twice. Ten of L.A.’s final 16 games feature a team currently in the playoffs. Using 25 wins as the marker of Washington continuing to win at its current rate, the Sparks would need to win 14 of 16 to reach that. Last season, however, being the first 44-game season, teams that reached 23 victories reached the playoffs.
“We have to be consistent in what we know makes us good,” coach Lynne Roberts reported. “At this point in the season, you know where you’re good, you know where you’re not good or what makes you kind of struggle. We need to be consistent in what makes us good, which is playing with pace, ball movement.
“When you don’t have a one-on-one player like KP that can just go get a bucket, you’ve got to rely on movement — player movement, ball movement — and just be playing unselfish.”
Phoenix Mercury (12-20)
If anyone is openly making a push for the final spot, it’s the Mercury. The trade for Plum, who could end up leaving in free agency this offseason, is a risky move. Things worked well Monday as she scored 20 points in 20 minutes in her debut off the bench in a 106-101 win over the Sky. Plum moved to the starting lineup Wednesday, a 96-82 loss at Atlanta. The Mercury will face the Mystics three times and the Sparks once to have the chance to directly make up some ground. There are eight current playoff teams in their final 13 games, including the Mystics. The Mercury need to go undefeated the rest of the way to reach 25 wins or 11-2 to get to 23 wins.
Chicago Sky (12-19)
The Sky have been playing over .500 ball recently — 5-3 in the past eight games — but they’ll need to do more than that. They’ll need to go 14-0 to reach 25 wins and 12-2 to hit 23. The team is already playing shorthanded with Skylar Diggins out because of a right knee injury and Azura Stevens missing four games for personal reasons. And now standout rookie Sydney Taylor is dealing with a groin injury.
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The postseason, though, absolutely remains the goal despite the low odds. There will be opportunities to pull back those ahead in the standings with two games against the Mystics, two against the Liberty and one against the Sparks.
“We all feel like that we have had enough in the locker room to turn out some of these games,” Sky coach Tyler Marsh reported. “And the ones in front of us. We feel confident that if we put our best foot forward, that we can turn out some wins in these as well.
“We’re all confident in where we’re at right now to be able to make a push.”
Portland Fire (11-19) and Toronto Tempo (10-20)
It’s difficult to have much faith in the two expansion franchises considering they’ve combined to lose 12 straight games. That streak has to break Thursday when they play each other.
The numbers are the same for the Fire as the Sky, with 14 games remaining. The Fire have a good chance at the start with five of six games against teams currently out of the playoffs, but five of the final eight are against our playoff locks, including three against the Valkyries.
The Tempo can’t reach 25 wins and need to go 13-1 to get to 23. Things just haven’t been the same since they lost Brittney Sykes to injury. Eight of the Tempo’s final 14 games are against current playoff teams.
