A big series from the Bronx regarding the American League playoff picture starts tonight, with the Mariners visiting the Yankees. We are getting close to football season, so I may not get to remind bettors of this fact again in 2026: If you are not fading M’s starter Bryan Woo away from Seattle, then you simply don’t like money. The righty is on the hill tonight with a 7:05 ET first pitch from the Bronx, and it’s nationally televised on TBS.
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The Mariners made a couple of moves ahead of the trade deadline but really no big swings, and that may cost them a return to the postseason – I will remind you that Seattle is the only active big-league franchise to never win a pennant. The M’s had an excess of starting pitching but only turned Luis Castillo into middling reliever Seranthony Dominguez in what was really a Seattle salary dump. The team also added outfielder Taylor Ward from Baltimore, but Ward’s offensive struggles have only gotten worse since the deal.
Long story short, I don’t see Seattle making it after reaching a Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the club a 15.5% shot, and it is priced +330 (23.3%) at DraftKings. Where Seattle stands after this tough nine-game trip that also goes to Houston and Philadelphia should give us a good idea how realistic the team’s playoff chances are. Seattle is 23-34 on the road and hasn’t won an away series since sweeping the A’s in Sacramento from May 25-27.
Mariners-Yankees MLB same-game parlay
- New York money line
- Both teams to score 2+ runs
DraftKings SGP price: +136
Perhaps the Mariners wouldn’t be in such a major hole if Woo wasn’t such a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde when it comes to home/away splits. Last time out, the 26-year-old threw seven shutout innings at home to beat what had been a streaking Detroit team. While T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly, it’s not crazily so. Yet Woo is now 7-0 there this year with a 1.96 ERA and .164 opponents’ batting average in 10 starts.
On the road in 12 starts, Woo is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA and .300 OBA. His last roadie was about a typical line this year: 5.0 innings, five runs allowed in a defeat at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Woo has surrendered at least four runs in seven straight away starts. Why doesn’t manager Dan Wilson just throw an opener out there for Woo? He has never followed one in the Show.
Woo hasn’t faced the Yankees this year and didn’t get a decision against them in two starts spanning 13.2 innings last year. The model has Woo at 6.3 innings, 5.8 strikeouts, 4.6 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs. I think Woo wishes.
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Since losing Aaron Judge to the injured list, the Yankees are now 30-29 and rank 28th in the majors in OPS and 27th in runs per game. Trade acquisitions Heliot Ramos (.118) and Luis Garcia Jr. (.211) haven’t gotten going yet, either; Ramos is 3-for-9 career off Woo with a homer and three RBI.
Tonight might be the last go-round for lefty Ryan Weathers (5-7, 3.79 ERA) in the New York rotation, with Carlos Rodon close to his return from the injured list and Weathers presumably the odd-man out barring other injuries. Then again, if Weathers keeps pitching like he has been of late, the Yanks will go to a six-man group or make room.
The 26-year-old hasn’t allowed a run over 13 innings in his past two starts, marking the first time in Weathers’ career where he has had consecutive starts with at least five scoreless innings. His overall scoreless innings streak is a career-best 17.2.
The model has him at 5.4 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs tonight. Weathers’ season debut was in Seattle on March 30 and he allowed a run over 4.1 innings.
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Started the week right with a small parlay hit Monday on Phillies-Cardinals in a series with NL playoff ramifications. Seattle is one of the worst teams in the majors against lefties with a .648 OPS that ranks 29th, and it has lost six straight games at Yankee Stadium with just one series win there since 2017. While Weathers has been great, I’m sure the M’s can score at least twice on a hot night. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
