Duke vs. UNC: Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson set up rivalry's best NBA prospect matchup in last 40 years

Duke vs. North Carolina requires no special introduction. It’s one of the best rivalries in sports, regardless of who’s playing or coaching in it. It’s a matchup of two of the most storied programs in the sport with plenty of lore behind it.

Simply put, this rivalry has had almost everything over the years. The only thing missing — more so from the North Carolina side — is a prospect matchup that equally matches the hype. Sure, North Carolina has produced plenty of pros this decade, and Duke has also produced dozens of lottery picks since the turn of the century. But the stars haven’t aligned to give basketball fans a matchup between two elite draft prospects on opposite sidelines during the same draft year until now.

The newest chapter of this storied rivalry– and one of the best prospect matchups this rivalry has seen in almost four decades — will be written on Saturday when No. 4 Duke faces No. 14 North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

Duke star Cameron Boozer is the current favorite to win National Player of the Year honors. Statistically, he’s having a better season than Cooper Flagg did last year for the Blue Devils. Flagg had one of the best one-and-done seasons in college basketball history and was the clear-cut No. 1-ranked prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft.

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Cameron Salerno

This year will be different. Boozer has been the best player in the sport this season, but the odds are stacked against him to go No. 1 this summer. That’s because Kansas’ Darryn Peterson and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa will likely go 1-2. Those two players faced off last weekend in Lawrence, Kansas, and although Peterson played 18 of his 21 minutes in the first half, that was all that was needed to show why he’s the best prospect in this class.

On the other side, you have North Carolina star forward Caleb Wilson. Draft pundits have considered this class as a “Big Three” with Boozer, Dybantsa and Peterson, but Wilson has been knocking on the door of that tier since the season started. He plays like a scrappy walk-on despite being a blue-chip recruit. Wilson is a hyper-athletic, jump-out-of-the-gym forward who has a game that can directly translate to the next level.

More than that, though, Wilson represents the best North Carolina draft prospect since Marvin Williams, who was selected No. 2 overall in the 2005 NBA Draft by the Atlanta Hawks and Raymond Felton, who was selected No. 5 overall in the same draft by the Charlotte Bobcats (now known as the Charlotte Hornets). That is the last time North Carolina’s basketball program has seen a player get selected in the top five of the NBA Draft.

The drought for North Carolina producing a lottery pick is going to end this year. The last time the Tar Heels had a player selected in the lottery, you have to go back to 2019, when Coby White (No. 7) and Cameron Johnson (No. 11) were both taken in the first 11 picks.

If Wilson and Boozer are indeed selected top five this summer, it would mark the first time since 1989 that this rivalry has had a prospect matchup with those credentials. That year, North Carolina’s J.R. Reid was selected No. 5 and Duke’s Danny Ferry was taken No. 2 overall.

How North Carolina and Duke stack up in the draft since 2000

Since the turn of the century, Duke has produced 40 first-round selections, while North Carolina has 26. During that span, Duke has seen four players (Flagg, Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson and Kyrie Irving) get selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Brad Daugherty (1986) was North Carolina’s last No. 1 overall pick.

Williams and Felton were UNC’s last top-five selections in 2005. That year, North Carolina had four players selected in the lottery: Williams Felton, Sean May and Rashad McCants. Since 2020, North Carolina has seen just three players get selected in the first round: Powell, Day’Ron Sharpe and Cole Anthony.

Here is how North Carolina and Duke stack up in the NBA Draft since 2000.

Where in the first round?	Duke	North Carolina
First round (1-30)	40	26
Lottery (1-14)	25	12
Top five	14	2
No. 1 overall	4	0

Wilson represents a new era for North Carolina basketball. The former No. 8 overall player in the 2025 recruiting cycle by 247Sports has quickly established himself as a top-four prospect in the sport. Although it seems unlikely (as of now) for Wilson to jump any of those three players, he should be taken within the first five picks this summer.

Scouting Boozer and Wilson with an eye to the NBA

(by CBS Sports Director of Basketball Scouting Adam Finkelstein)

The first thing you have to realize when scouting Cameron Boozer is that he is the winningest player in modern high school history.

And that on the college level, he’s been every bit ready to impact winning as we expected.

Boozer won four Florida state championships, a gold medal every time he played for USA Basketball, every Nike EYBL Championship, and then, as a senior, his Columbus High School team in Miami, Fla., won the GEICO Nationals. So Boozer very literally won every competition he ever entered during his high school years. Which is remarkable.

What people may realize is that Wilson and Boozer were actually teammates in the EYBL their last season playing for the Nightrydas Elite. Wilson started the season for a different EYBL team and wasn’t not playing great, and the perception was that his stock was slipping. So he switched teams and came on and joined the team that had the Boozers, and Alex Lloyd, who is at Florda, and Dante Allen, who is at Miami.

Boozer’s physicality and impact on winning

While Boozer, who finished No. 3 in the 247Sports class rankings, didn’t necessarily have the glaring upside as someone like AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson coming out of high school, his ability to impact winning was second to none, and that has carried through to this season at Duke. In fact, I think Boozer has been better than expected in a lot of ways. That has flown under the radar because all three of them (Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer) have all exceeded expectations as freshmen in college.

The shooting has translated more quickly than we expected. Boozer is someone who can not only make movement threes, but his shooting ability has opened up his attack. I think the other thing is that his physicality, even by college standards, is exceptional. We knew he would be college-ready from a physical standpoint, but even the best frontlines in college (like Florida, which is arguably the best in college basketball) struggle containing him.

Boozer’s physicality — his ability to bump defenders off their spots and throw in multiple fake and ultimately get back to his right hand — has worked from day one. And he poses this significant game plan challenge to opposing defenses because he is such a good passer. Boozer’s individual offense has popped quicker than expected. He stresses and puts defenses in a bind: ‘Okay, he’s good enough to warrant a double team, but if we send a second defender, he’ll pick us apart, so if we send it, when do we send it and where do we send it from?’

The bottom line is that Boozer’s core competency is in his overlap of physicality and a high basketball IQ that is the best in college basketball.

Duke v Virginia Tech — Duke’s Cameron Boozer vs. Virginia Tech on Jan. 31 in Blacksburg, Va.
Ryan Hunt / Getty Images

How will Boozer’s game translate to the NBA?

Boozer is exactly what we thought coming out of high school – he has the highest floor in the class. It’s hard to envision any scenario where he is not successful in the NBA. Now, can he be the offensive focal point of an NBA Championship-caliber team? I don’t know about that – there is a question of whether or not he has the same high upside outcomes that Dybantsa and Peterson have.

But in terms of needing a sure-thing, the vast majority of scouts consider him to be as close to a sure thing as possible.”

Wilson’s surprising offense

With North Carolina, Wilson’s offense has definitely been better than expected. And the consistency with which he has been able to put up high-volume scoring numbers has exceeded what we expected.

Because Wilson, who finished as the No. 8 overall prospect in the 247Sports class rankings, was the secondary offensive threat, next to Boozer for the NightRydas in the EYBL, there was real skepticism about his ability to come he come in and be an offensive focal point from day one as a freshman. Wilson has really answered those concerns in a convincing and consistent way.

Wilson’s half-court offensive game is very mid-range centric. So the question is how much of that is translatable and how much of that indicates future shooting potential beyond the three-point line. I still think that is a big if, but stylistically, for as much as he has exceeded expectations at North Carolina, the way in which he is doing it is going to have to evolve to translate to an NBA game because he is just not going to get that much mid-range volume.

Wilson’s athleticism and activity level will certainly translate. The potential to be versatile defensively could also really translate, but as good as he has been offensively, there have been some defensive processing things that have stood out that he will have to try and fix. Things like court-mapping and understanding how to rotate. The physical tools are all there; the processing ability on defense will be a key.

Florida State v North Carolina — UNC’s Caleb Wilson vs. Florida State on Dec. 30 in Chapel Hill, N.C.
David Jensen / Getty Images

The Boozer-Wilson matchup in Chapel Hill on Saturday

Boozer is going to be more physical, and Wilson is going to be bouncier and quicker. In many ways, Boozer is also just a smarter overall player, right now. The timeliness and efficiency of Boozer’s decisions are going to be an advantage. He processes the game quicker.

What will decide this matchup is the level to which Wilson can physically battle with Boozer inside, and whether Boozer’s physicality negates some of Caleb’s athleticism.

Additionally, UNC has had its biggest defensive problems this year when its bigs get extended to the perimeter and are put in long, close-out situations. Boozer and Duke center Pat Ngongba can shoot it, which creates a difficult matchup for the entire North Carolina defense.

Conversely, Wilson should try to beat Boozer down the floor. Wilson will certainly try to put it on the floor and attack him off the bounce and challenge him laterally. If they meet at the rim and this turns into a jumping contest, Wilson is going to win. If it turns into a wrestling match, Boozer is going to win.

Boozer is ultra reliable, and there are not many holes in his overlap of physicality, intelligence, durability and skill.

Tale of the Tape

Stat	Caleb Wilson (UNC)	Cameron Boozer (Duke)
Games Played	22	22
Points (PPG)	20	23.3
Rebounds (RPG)	9.8	9.9
Assists (APG)	2.8	4
Blocks (BPG)	1.3	0.5
FG%	58.1%	58.3%

Notable prospects matchups in Duke vs. UNC

This rivalry has featured plenty of future NBA standouts from Duke and North Carolina. Here are a few notable matchups of future draft picks from this rivalry.

Feb. 1, 2025: Duke 87, North Carolina 70. The headliner of this matchup, obviously, was Flagg. It was his first time playing against North Carolina. Flagg finished with 21 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. On the other side, Drake Powell, who was selected No. 22 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft, scored 12 points and provided a spark off the bench. Duke had three players selected in the top 10 last summer (Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach)
March 15, 2019: Duke 74, North Carolina 73. Duke’s 2018-19 team featured the top-three-ranked recruits (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish). North Carolina had three future first-rounders on its roster in Coby White, Cameron Johnson and Nassir Little. In the ACC Tournament semifinals, Williamson recorded a double-double (31 points, 11 rebounds) to send Duke to the conference title game. Johnson scored a team-high 23 points.
Feb. 8, 2012: Duke 85, North Carolina 84. One of the most iconic moments in the rivalry featured future first-round pick Austin Rivers drilling a game-winning 3-pointer on the road against the Tar Heels. Rivers finished with 29 points in that game. UNC’s starting lineup of Kendall Marshall Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Reggie Bullock and Tyler Zeller was all selected in the first round.
March 4, 2006. North Carolina 83, Duke 76. In the final game of the 2005-06 regular season, North Carolina defeated Duke behind 27 points from Tyler Hansbrough. On the other side, Duke star JJ Redick finished with 18 in the loss. That was the final time Redick faced UNC in his college career.
March 6, 2005: North Carolina 75, Duke 73. The last time UNC had a player selected in the top two of the NBA Draft was 2005. In the closing seconds of this banger, Marvin Williams grabbed an offensive rebound and scored on a fading putback and-one to give the Tar Heels the lead. Sean May scored a game-high 26 points for UNC. Shelden Williams, who was selected No. 5 overall that summer, dropped 22 points.