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Over the past week, we have provided in-depth betting previews for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12, but there are also plenty of betting opportunities involving the Group of 6 schools.
Here are our favorite bets to make on the Mountain West, Pac-12, American, Sun Belt, C-USA and MAC in 2026.
Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Mountain West
Prediction: Hawai’i OVER 7.5 wins (+120)
The argument is continuity where it matters most: quarterback, pass catchers and offensive line. QB Micah Alejado returns after throwing for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns, giving Hawai’i one of Mountain West’s better passing attacks. The offense averaged 294 passing yards (sixth most in the FBS) and 29.5 points per game last season even though the run game was 103rd in PFF grade and the offensive line ranked 121st in run blocking. This team won nine games without being balanced offensively.
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Alejado still has WR Pofele Ashlock and added Washington transfer Audric Harris, and the offensive line brings considerably more experience. The schedule is favorable within the conference because Hawai’i avoids Air Force and gets UNLV and San Jose State at home. There’s a reasonable base of six winnable games, leaving the need for two wins from the remaining five opponents, including an opening matchup at Stanford.
Defensively, Hawai’i struggled against the run and was in the bottom 10 in tackling, but its coverage was respectable and the pass rush produced even pressure to be effective. Losing leading sack producers Jackie Johnson and De’Jon Benton creates uncertainty, but the defense needs to be only functional if the offense continues scoring 30 points.
Under 7.5 at -150 seems like an overcorrection for a team returning its quarterback and most of the offense after winning eight regular-season games. Over 8.5 is +250, but nine wins feels closer to the ceiling than the expectation. Eight requires the offense to carry Hawai’i again, and the schedule provides a realistic path.
Pac-12
Prediction: Texas State UNDER 6.5 wins (-152)
Texas State has one of the Pac-12’s best offenses. Brad Jackson returns after producing nearly 4,000 total yards and 38 touchdowns, while Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. headline arguably the conference’s best receiving corps. But under the 11-game format, Texas State must finish 7-4 to beat this number, and that requires too much from a team stepping up in competition.
The Bobcats won only six regular-season games last year despite averaging 37 points and 479 yards, finishing 3-5 in Sun Belt play. The Bobcats were 122nd in tackling and 84th in coverage, and they allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 70% of their passes. Now, the defense returns only four starters and loses significant production from a pass rush that covered up many of those problems.
The schedule includes an opening game at Texas, plus road trips to San Diego State and Boise State and tough home games against UTSA and Washington State. With all that in mind, reaching seven wins leaves very little room for an upset or another close loss.
I like the UNDER on the season win total, but -152 is expensive for a seasonlong ticket. The better approach might be fading Texas State against the spread when favored (or backing the underdog money line). The offense will create public optimism, but the defense makes the Bobcats vulnerable in games the market expects it to win.
I would also look toward home game overs. Texas State went 4-2 to the OVER at home last year, a trend that could continue with an explosive offense paired with a defense that struggles in coverage and tackling.
Mid-American Conference
Prediction: Western Michigan OVER 7.5 wins (+125)
Western Michigan senior RB Jalen Buckley has scored at least nine rushing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. Joseph Weiser/Icon SportswireEight wins is reasonable and the plus money is attractive. The Broncos return the foundation of the offense that won the MAC: QB Broc Lowry, 1,000-yard RB Jalen Buckley and three starting offensive linemen. Lowry accounted for 2,766 total yards and 23 touchdowns, and the Broncos averaged 204 rushing yards per game. The passing game remains limited, but Western Michigan knows exactly how it wants to win: ground and pound.
The schedule provides optimism. Michigan and Boise State are likely losses, while road games against Toledo and Central Michigan could be difficult. But Monmouth, Buffalo, Kent State and Akron should be wins, leaving Rice, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Miami (Ohio) as winnable games. Western Michigan can lose three times and still cash this number.
The concern is the defense. Its best asset was the pass rush, and all five leading sack producers are gone, including Nadame Tucker, who led the MAC in sacks and tied for the most in the country. As a team, 31 of 43 sacks from last season are gone from a unit that already ranked 86th against the run and 101st in tackling. Replacing that pressure will be difficult, but that’s what makes this a plus-money prediction.
The better weekly angle might be fading Western Michigan ATS. The Broncos finished 10-3-1 ATS last season, 7-1-1 ATS as favorites. The offense creates a solid floor, but the rebuilt pass rush makes covering inflated numbers much less reliable. If Western Michigan is laying large spreads based on last year’s reputation — especially against competent passing offenses — that’s where the opportunities could emerge. — Pamela Maldonado
By Mark Zinno
Sun Belt: James Madison UNDER 8.5 wins (+100)
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It won’t be hard to forget James Madison’s trip to the College Football Playoff last season, but this year’s team is nothing like last year’s. The team has only five returning starters, and new head coach Billy Napier had to hit the transfer portal hard. Add in new coordinators on offense and defense, and you’ve got a ton of variance. There are a lot of unknowns, particularly at quarterback where there is no clear starter yet. The defense might be even more of a question mark and set to take a step back. The Dukes will start the season with 11 straight games without a bye, highlighted by a five-day turnaround after the Georgia State game and having to travel to Appalachian State. They also play two sets of back-to-back road games. Everyone will be gunning for JMU this year, and lines will be inflated because of last year’s success.
C-USA: Liberty OVER 8.5 wins (+110)
Jamey Chadwell had the Flames in prime spot for a bowl berth last season and then proceeded to lose the last four games of the season … all by one score, with three in overtime. There should be positive regression coming their way in 2026 with two improvements. Taking care of the football is a top priority. Liberty was 125th in turnovers on offense and posted a minus-7 turnover margin in 2025. The Flames will also need more consistency at quarterback. Between senior Ethan Vasko and Wake Forest transfer Deshawn Purdie, if they can manage to stabilize the offense, the Liberty ground game should do the rest. The Flames are projected favorites in 10 games this year and have a favorable road schedule, having to travel outside of the Eastern time zone only twice.
Mountain West: Air Force OVER 7.5 wins (+120)
The Air Force offense flew high last season, scoring nearly 30 points per game and ranking third in the nation in rushing yards and in time of possession. The team returns QB Owen Allen as well. It might be hard to match the offensive production from 2025, but it’s the first time in four years that coach Troy Calhoun has returned his signal-caller. The question will be the defense, which returns eight starters from last year’s team. There really is only one direction for this defense to go, and that is up. Air Force gets North Dakota State and UNLV at home and avoid Hawai’i. The Falcons are projected favorites in eight games with two spots as underdogs against Army and Navy, two other option schools. It’s very telling that oddsmakers have pushed the win total this high after a three-win season last year. Don’t be surprised to see Air Force in the Mountain West championship game.
American: South Florida UNDER 8.5 wins (-146)
The Bulls seem overvalued here after three years of Alex Golesh, their first nine-win campaign since 2017 and their best overall mark in eight years. In comes Brian Hartline as the head coach and Tim Beck as the OC. That sounds great, but Hartline has never coached anywhere but Ohio State and that is cause for concern with just seven total starters returning. There’s a lot of unproven talent in Tampa, particularly at quarterback. The nonconference schedule is a lot easier this year for the Bulls, but to get to nine wins, they must overcome short weeks on the road at UTSA and at home versus Memphis. They face Army for the first time in over two decades, and it’s on the road. As a frame of reference, USF has lost to Navy, another triple-option offense, in back-to-back seasons. The back half of the schedule should present a lot of problems, likely too many in Year 1 for Hartline & Co.
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