tamil yogi
The preseason AP Top 25 football poll was released Monday, so let’s use it as a roadmap into the 2026 season. I have one wager or prediction for every team in the poll. Some prices are playable, while others are too expensive and better treated as predictions. Either way, each one provides a framework for how I see these teams, what could drive their ceiling and where things could go wrong.
And — because we are this hyped for the season — why not include some bonus bets on teams that just missed the cut?
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change..
No. 1: Ohio State BuckeyesThe bet: UNDER 9.5 wins +150
It’s calculated aggression against Ohio State’s schedule and defensive turnover. The Buckeyes have legit tests at Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC, plus Oregon and Michigan at home. They replace the spine of a defense that gave up only 9.3 points per game (including roughly half of its tackling production), multiple sack leaders and the secondary. That unit could go from historically dominant to merely very good. UNDER 10.5 (-200) is more likely, but it’s a tough price to back. UNDER 9.5 is a lower probability but a better wager.
No. 2 Oregon DucksThe bet: +240 to win the Big Ten
The Ducks could have the most complete roster. Quarterback Dante Moore enters his second season as a starter with the Ducks, the defensive continuity is outstanding, returning multiple defensive starters including linebacker Teitum Tuioti (fourth-most sacks in conference last season). They have a cleaner schedule, while getting a better price than the Buckeyes. The receiver losses are manageable because production was spread across multiple players, not concentrated on one star. That’s about as positive a team could get headed into a new season.
No. 3 Georgia BulldogsThe bet: Georgia -0.5 wins over Ohio State +130
I project 10-2 or 11-1 more often than 9-3, but UNDER 10.5 (-190) isn’t attractive. Although I like OVER 10.5 wins +160, this wager fits what I see with both Georgia and Ohio State. I agree with why the Bulldogs are favorites to win the SEC. They have the deepest roster, a returning quarterback in Gunner Stockton, the offensive line should rebound after an injury-plagued season, the front seven is loaded again … and Kirby Smart is still a great coach. If Stockton can simply avoid mistakes while taking efficient shots, that works with Georgia’s roster. Getting Oklahoma at home could be the swing factor. This wager has more flexibility than the season win total.
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting IrishThe bet: To reach the semifinal +120
This is the best “gross” option. OVER 10.5 wins costs -270, and UNDER 11.5 is -190. The market is charging heavily unless we predict a perfect regular season at +160 (which is a short price for an aggressive projection). Enter Notre Dame’s playoff ceiling. Quarterback CJ Carr returns behind one of the country’s best offensive lines, and an experienced defense should remain elite at linebacker and in the secondary. Matchups against BYU, Miami and SMU could all present challenges that affect the win total but not the playoff path.
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No. 5 Texas LonghornsThe bet: UNDER 9.5 -142
I considered +154 to miss the playoff, but that requires betting on both Texas and the selection environment. A 9-3 Texas tea, could still get in depending on schedule strength, résumé quality and what happens elsewhere. UNDER 9.5 is the better bet because Texas has multiple loss opportunities against Ohio State, Oklahoma and Ole Miss, with trips to Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M. More importantly, Texas didn’t produce a signature offensive performance against its best competition last season. Arch Manning could improve but not enough to navigate this schedule.
No. 6 Indiana HoosiersThe bet: Indiana -0.5 wins over Miami +150
Curt Cignetti has earned my trust as a roster builder. Indiana lost enormous offensive production — replacing Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover — but the defensive foundation remains strong with all five leading sack producers remaining, including Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones. The Hoosiers defensive unit produced the second-most sacks in the nation, and the most in the Big Ten by margin. Plus money is a wager on the defense being the strength again, getting a better price than going with OVER 10.5 wins at +100, eliminating the 11-win requirement.
No. 7 Miami HurricanesThe bet: UNDER 10.5 wins -110
The market is giving the Hurricanes almost no margin for transition. There’s major turnover in the two areas that helped create last season’s ceiling (replacing four offensive line starters and more than half the sack production), while quarterback Darian Mensah is introduced into a new system. I’m more comfortable predicting that Miami remains very good than remaining nearly perfect.
No. 8 Texas A&M AggiesThe bet: UNDER 5.5 conference wins +100
The Aggies went 7-1 in SEC play last season, but asking for six conference wins again is aggressive. Five of the eight SEC games are on the road, including LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma. Texas A&M hosts Texas and Tennessee. The defense returns only a handful of starters after finishing top 25 in coverage, and the offense replaces running back depth (including Le’Veon Moss) along with most of the offensive line. A&M can be good, and still finish 5-3 in SEC play.
Ole Miss, led by returning QB Trinidad Chambliss, is a good bet to make the CFP in 2026. Nick Tre. Smith/Icon SportswireNo. 9 Ole Miss Rebels
The bet: To make the playoff +220
Trinidad Chambliss has an argument to be considered the SEC’s best returning quarterback after posting the highest passing grade in conference last season, excelling under pressure with the help of his athleticism and mobility. Running back Kewan Lacy returns after finishing third in the FBS in rushing yards, and the offensive line should improve with returning production. The schedule is tough, but Georgia comes to Oxford and the Rebels have only one road game in the final five-game stretch. Ole Miss doesn’t need an SEC title either, as a 10-2 season could be enough.
No. 10 Oklahoma SoonersThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins +156 (alt line)
The Sooners’ ceiling depends on quarterback John Mateer because OU has the defense to beat anyone in the SEC. The offensive line returns after improving late last season, the defense remains intact and Mateer enters Year 2 in the system. The schedule is brutal, but OU won 10 games last season despite its offensive volatility. Improvement from Mateer makes nine wins attainable.
No. 11 LSU TigersThe bet: UNDER 8.5 wins -105
I wouldn’t lay -205 on no playoff because it’s the same argument at a much worse price. The LSU improvement case is easy to see with new coach Lane Kiffin possibly improving an offense that was 118th in rushing grade last season, especially with four offensive line starters returning and quarterback Sam Leavitt taking over. But nine wins requires immediate improvement in too many places. The schedule doesn’t do any favors with back-to-back matchups against Ole Miss and Texas A&M followed by trips to Kentucky and Auburn. This is before another back-to-back against Alabama and Texas, with back-to-back trips at Tennessee and Arkansas to close the season.
No. 12 Texas Tech Red RaidersThe bet: UNDER 10.5 wins +160
The Red Raiders replaced Behren Morton with Will Hammond at quarterback, significant production from an elite defense (including Jacob Rodriguez), more than half of the sack production and multiple cornerbacks, who were the engine behind Tech’s incredible 12-1 regular season in 2025. The schedule is manageable, but 11 wins is asking for near-perfection despite the roster turnover. Replacing a bulk of the defense while also trying to improve red zone touchdown efficiency with a new QB is a tall order.
No. 13 Alabama Crimson TideThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins -120
Alabama won 10 regular-season games last season despite ranking 93rd in rushing grade and 128th in pass rush. Both are obvious areas for improvement, especially with four offensive line starters returning and the run game becoming an offseason priority. With either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell replacing Ty Simpson, it creates uncertainty, but the new starter will inherit a strong receiving corps and an experienced line. The schedule also helps: Georgia, Texas A&M and Auburn all come to Tuscaloosa.
No. 14 USC TrojansThe bet: UNDER 8.5 wins -136
The offense should remain dangerous with Jayden Maiava back, but the defense still has to prove it’s a step up from a run defense that ranked 130th in PFF grade. More importantly, the schedule sets up for landmines with Oregon, Ohio State and trips to Penn State, Wisconsin and Indiana. USC is just 3-7 straight up and 2-8 against the spread on the road since 2024. I see improvement but not enough to bet on nine wins, especially with five trips on tap.
Bear Bachmeier returning to the BYU offensive system gives the Cougars a solid foundation for 2026. Jerome Miron-Imagn ImagesNo. 15 BYU Cougars
The bet: +550 to win the Big 12
BYU returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier, top running back LJ Martin and the top three defensive backs from an 11-win regular season. Bachmeier threw for more than 3,000 yards as a freshman and already proved he can handle a full Big 12 schedule. Texas Tech deserves to be favored, but it’s replacing far more proven production on an elite defense in 2025. The gap between these teams isn’t as large as the odds suggest. BYU’s continuity at the most important positions make this a value prediction.
No. 16 Michigan WolverinesThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins +140
This is a bet on Michigan finally getting more from its passing game. The Wolverines won nine games last season despite ranking 92nd in passing grade. Quarterback Bryce Underwood enters Year 2 with wide receiver Andrew Marsh back, while running back Jordan Marshall and an experienced offensive line give the unit a strong rushing floor. The schedule is difficult — especially Oregon and Ohio State on the road to close out the season — but getting plus-money on Michigan to raise its floor is worth a look.
No. 17 Washington HuskiesThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins +144
I’m willing to be aggressive with Washington because its most important players return: quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and a veteran offensive line. Williams accounted for 3,676 total yards and 31 touchdowns last season, and now enters Year 2 as the unquestioned starter. There’s real skill position turnover and the defense suffered losses, but the schedule gives the Huskies home matchups with Penn State, Indiana and Iowa. Nine wins requires improvement, not a massive leap.
Editor’s Picks
No. 18 Penn State Nittany LionsThe bet: Exactly 9 wins +290
Penn State should improve under coach Matt Campbell, but nine wins feels like the sweet spot between the favorable schedule and massive transition. Rocco Becht gives the offense an experienced quarterback but only five starters return, four offensive line spots turn over and the defense is being rebuilt. Penn State avoids Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, so eight wins feels low, but asking a first-year staff and reconstructed roster to immediately win 10-plus games feels aggressive.
No. 19 SMU MustangsThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins -136
Kevin Jennings returns as arguably the best quarterback in the ACC after leading the Mustangs to a 14-3 conference record over the past two seasons. There’s continuity along the offensive line, and the schedule removes two of the biggest threats in both Miami and Clemson. You’re asking an established program with a proven quarterback to take care of a favorable schedule and get to nine wins.
No. 20 Tennessee VolunteersThe bet: UNDER 7.5 wins +105
Tennessee won eight games last season with an elite passing offense. Quarterback Joey Aguilar and top wide receiver Chris Brazzell II are gone, leaving freshman Faizon Brandon to run the offense. The defense returns only three starters after ranking 98th against the run. The schedule leaves little room for growing pains, with matchups against Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU plus several difficult SEC road games. Seven wins feels more likely than eight, making the plus-money under my favorite angle.
The Utah Utes, led by QB Devon Dampier, have a solid floor to go over 8.5 wins in 2026. Scott Winters/Icon SportswireNo. 21 Utah Utes
The bet: OVER 8.5 wins -150
I don’t love the price, but nine wins is the cleanest prediction. Utah brings back quarterback Devon Dampier after he accounted for 34 touchdowns, running back Wayshawn Parker after nearly 1,000 rushing yards and added more explosiveness to their receivers room. The concern is real: four new offensive line starters and major defensive turnover. But the schedule gives Utah room to absorb it. The Utes avoid Texas Tech, get BYU and Houston at home, and don’t have an obvious unwinnable game. I see 9-3 as the most likely outcome, with 10-2 firmly in play.
No. 22 Iowa HawkeyesThe bet: UNDER 7.5 wins +120
Iowa won nine games last season, but I’m betting against a repeat. The Hawkeyes replaced quarterback Mark Gronowski, three starters from an offensive line that ranked second in PFF run blocking and the three defenders responsible for 75% of their sacks. That’s significant turnover for a team that typically starts from a deficit offensively. The schedule adds pressure: Iowa plays Michigan, Ohio State and Washington consecutively, with the Wolverines and Huskies on the road. How the Hawkeyes rebound after the stretch will determine their season.
No. 23 Houston CougarsThe bet: OVER 8.5 wins +130
Willie Fritz has a history of building programs, and Houston already jumped from four wins to 10 in Year 2. Quarterback Conner Weigman returns, giving the Cougars stability at the most important position — even with legitimate turnover along the offensive line and in the secondary. The schedule gives Houston some wiggle room, avoiding BYU and Arizona. I don’t see another 10-win season as the expectation, but at plus money, 9-3 is realistic enough to back.
No. 24 Louisville CardinalsThe bet: To win the ACC +800
Jeff Brohm has won at least nine games in each of his three seasons at Louisville. Running back Isaac Brown gives the offense an established playmaker, and Lincoln Kienholz adds mobility at quarterback. The Cardinals return a strong secondary, including their top two defensive backs in forced interceptions, Antonio Watts and Tayon Holloway. There are questions at receiver and along the offensive line, but at 8-1 odds, I’m betting Louisville has enough to reach the ACC title game to give me a chance to cash.
No. 25 Missouri TigersThe bet: UNDER 6.5 wins +100
Missouri won eight games last season largely behind an excellent running game and defense. Now both strengths are being rebuilt. Running back Ahmad Hardy returns (second-most rushing yards in the FBS), but four offensive line starters are gone. Defensively, Missouri lost all four starting linemen, including its three leading sack producers from a unit that was eighth in pass rush grade. Quarterback Austin Simmons could improve the passing game, but with trips to Ole Miss and Arkansas in back-to-back weeks followed by a trip to Georgia, then facing Oklahoma to close … getting plus money on Missouri finishing 6-6 or worse is worth the bet.
The Clemson Tigers have their work cut out for them to surpass nine wins this season. Eric Canha-Imagn ImagesClemson Tigers
The bet: UNDER 8.5 wins -186
The price is ugly, so I view this more as a prediction than a wager. Clemson should improve on last season’s seven wins, but nine feels like too much because the Tigers were 106th in rushing and 78th in run blocking, and now replace four offensive line starters while breaking in Christopher Vizzina at quarterback. The defense should provide a solid floor with linebacker Sammy Brown and leading sack producer Will Heldt returning, but LSU, Miami, Florida State and South Carolina create enough loss opportunities.
Florida GatorsThe bet: Florida +0.5 wins over Tennessee -115
I looked at OVER 7.5 +130, because Florida is one of the SEC teams I’m willing to buy on improvement. The Gators went 4-8 despite a strong offensive line and wins over Texas and Florida State. Now running back Jadan Baugh returns, the skill positions have been upgraded and coach Jon Sumrall takes over a roster with more talent than last season’s record suggests. Quarterback Aaron Philo is the gamble, but Florida does get six home games and after two easy openers, there are enough winnable SEC games to make eight wins realistic at plus money, with an easier closing stretch of games. The +0.5 wins is a solid expression of the same relative opinion.
Boise State BroncosThe bet: UNDER 8.5 wins -220
This is a prediction, not a wager at that price. Boise returns enough offense to remain competitive, but nine wins requires trusting too many rebuilt areas. Both starting tackles are gone, and all four starters depart from a secondary that covered for a defense that ranked 122nd against the run and 135th in tackling. An already suspect defense will have to start over. The schedule also includes Oregon, Memphis and road games against Western Michigan, Fresno State and Washington State. Nine feels more like the ceiling than the expectation.
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