Normally, national champions aren’t supposed to try to defend the belt without the head honcho. But these aren’t normal times, and Dusty May is far from a normal coach. May became the first coach since Kansas’ Larry Brown in 1988 to win the national championship and leave college basketball when he chose to take the Dallas Mavericks gig and team up with the generational Cooper Flagg.
It’s a move that 98% of coaches in the world would make, too, if given the opportunity.
Michigan is left to try and run it back without the architect. Top assistant Mike Boynton was promoted to head coach and handed a two-year deal. Michigan was able to retain its entire roster, except injured sixth man LJ Cason, who transferred to Miami.
Can Michigan really be a national championship contender again without May, three lottery picks and four more rotation players from one of college basketball’s all-time dominant clubs?
Goodness, that’s a mouthful.
Let’s dive in.
Michigan’s projected starting lineup
PG Elliot Cadeau | 6-1 | 180 | Sr.
One year at Michigan has done wonders for Cadeau’s Q rating. Cadeau and Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. are the best two passers in college basketball. The vision, the touch, the anticipation, the fearlessness. Cadeau has it all. That pass-first mentality should make all these Michigan newcomers settle in rather quickly because Cadeau spoon-feeds good looks routinely. Cadeau also has some nastiness that will be needed even more without Morez Johnson to set the tone for every single practice.
But there’s more meat on the bone for Cadeau offensively. The 6-foot-1 guard answered questions about his jumper, but there’s still some work to do inside the paint to become even more potent. Cadeau shot just 47% on layups and 36% on floaters last year. He has the touch and creativity to be way better on that front. If it clicks, there’s All-American upside for a guy who brings it on defense, passes the cover off the rock and can drain more than enough 3s to keep defenses honest.
G Trey McKenney | 6-4 | 220 | So.
McKenney is one of the most obvious breakout picks on the board. The five-star freshman had to sit his turn behind three lottery picks, but the talent is still so evident. Now the opportunity is on tap. McKenney’s minutes are about to spike. His usage rate is about to soar. He can be one of the Big Ten’s best scorers because he does a little bit of everything. He can operate as an off-ball spacer who drills spot-up treys, attacks long closeouts and plays off the advantages that Cadeau creates. But there’s more on-ball utility that Michigan will tap into with McKenney this winter, as long as he can clean up his decision-making. 24% of McKenney’s pick-and-roll possessions ended in a turnover last season. That can’t happen in Year 2.
McKenney is a safe bet to lead Michigan in scoring. He’s an All-Big Ten talent, and McKenney will be on my preseason All-America ballot.
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G Brandon McCoy | 6-5 | 190 | Fr.
Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr. is expected to play a major role for Michigan this year. The 6-foot-5, 190-pound wing is an extremely explosive athlete who brings it on the defensive end daily. I expect McCoy to earn the right to guard some of the best perimeter players in the Big Ten. McCoy should walk into 10 points a night without a play being run for him, purely off his athleticism and a motor that is always revving. Run the floor, and Cadeau will find you. Hit the offensive glass. Attack a closeout. Make the simple plays.
It starts to get really fun, really quickly with McCoy if the jumper pops. He shot just 30% from 3-point range and 56% at the charity stripe last season in EYBL. But everything else is there, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
F JP Estrella | 6-11 | 240 | R-Jr.
Michigan believes JP Estrella has more in the tank than he showed last year in a Tennessee halfcourt offense that rarely created easy shots. The 6-foot-11 big man was a per-minute monster when he got real tick. Estrella rated in the 97th percentile in win shares, per CBB Analytics, and graded as one of the top offensive players in the portal for most models. That’s a good hint of what’s to come, but it still has to coalesce. Estrella has to improve his touch around the basket to become the best version of himself. He shot just 53% on 69 layups last season, including just a 42% mark as a roller in the ball-screen game. But that’s fixable stuff.
Skilled bigs are everything in the college game, and Estrella is poised to be one of Michigan’s nightly reliable sources of offense, especially if he can tap back into the skill he showed as a shooter in high school. I’d expect him to take far more than 10 triples next season, and he’ll post a career-high assist rate at Michigan, too.
C Moustapha Thiam | 7-2 | 250 | Jr.
Thiam is all of 7-feet-2 with an enormous 7-6 wingspan. He will be asked to replicate the rim dominance that made Michigan’s defense so nasty last season. Cincinnati had a top-10 defense when Thiam was on the floor, holding opponents to just 48% at the rim, which ranked third-best nationally, according to Hoop Explorer. Thiam can control the boards, protect the rim and move well enough on the perimeter to play multiple coverages defensively.
The best part about Thiam’s game is that he can get so, so, so much better. Thiam’s decision-making offensively was a little weird. He’d stop-and-pop for jumpers at awkward spots on the floor. He’s capable of making 3s (38 treys in two years at a 29% clip), but making jumpers needs to be a cherry on top, not the primary part of his game. If Michigan can develop Thiam into an enforcer and eliminate some of the possessions where he just floats on the perimeter, he can be a terrifying two-way difference-maker who will be in the NBA in 2027.
Off the bench
F Jalen Reed | 6-10 | 245 | Sr.
Reed is shaping up to be a major X-Factor for Michigan. The 6-foot-10 forward fought back from a torn ACL only to suffer a torn Achilles. It’s still iffy whether Reed will be full-go for Michigan’s season opener in November, but the talented big man is expected to play in 2026-27. How effective will he be after another grueling rehab? TBD. But when he’s played, Reed is so clearly an effective high-major big man who can play the 4 or the 5. He’s a rugged rebounder with an inside-out skillset and plenty of physicality. It’s just fair to wonder how much athleticism has been sapped after two devastating leg injuries.
F Quinn Costello | 6-10 | 195 | Fr.
Costello was one of the best-shooting big men in the Class of 2026. The 6-foot-10 big fella drained over 40% of his triples last season. That will get him on the floor. It’s all the other stuff that will keep him in the game. Can he be tough? Can he rebound? Can he run the floor time and time again? You have to keep your head on a swivel when you’re paired with a point guard like Cadeau. Will the game be too fast for him? Costello has the skillset to be a very, very good player down the road, but it’s still unclear just how many minutes he will earn in Year 1 behind Estrella, Thiam and Reed.
F Oscar Goodman | 6-7 | 235 | R-So.
Goodman played mop-up minutes for Michigan last year, but he’s got a real runway to be a valuable second-unit piece for Boynton. The New Zealand product should be considered the top contender to play backup minutes at the 3.
G Joseph Hartman | 6-6 | 193 | Fr.
A prospect with positional size, toughness and shooting who happens to be a coach’s kid? That’s a terrific foundation for Hartman, whose dad, Colin, is the associate head coach at Florida. The 6-foot-6 four-star freshman shot over 44% from 3-point range on the 3SSB circuit last year, and he’ll also stick his face in the fan on the glass and defensively.
C Marcus Møller | 7-3 | 230 | Fr.
Møller is a Denmark native who won his battle with testicular cancer and is now ready to compete for playing time. The 7-foot-3 big man has a bit of a unique skill set because he can protect the rim and also step out and drill 3s. He’ll need time to develop, but the tools at that size are eye-opening.
G Ricky Liburd | 6-4 | 190 | R-Fr.
Liburd redshirted last year, but he could push for minutes in a wide-open backcourt with his 3-and-D skillset. Michigan’s staff has compared Liburd to now-graduated Nimari Burnett.
G Lincoln Cosby | 6-8 | 195 | Fr.
Cosby was a former top-10 prospect in the Class of 2027, who reclassified to join Michigan a year early. But the 6-foot-8 wing is not expected to play this season while he heals up from a torn ACL.
G Malachi Brown | 6-5 | 185 | Fr.
Brown is a bit of a sleeper that May snagged last September. The late-blooming guard had zero Division I offers but shined at the Adidas All-American Camp and impressed May with his ability to play simple basketball. He defends. He takes and makes open shots. He cuts. He can pass. He has positional size. Brown may not have a major role in Year 1, but he could be one heckuva story one day.
Filling out the roster
- Howard Eisley Jr. | 6-2 | 200 | Jr.
- Harrison Hochberg | 6-7 | 220 | Sr.
Market watch
Odds to win 2027 NCAA Tournament (via Fanduel): +1900, 5th-best odds
Here’s the bullish look at Michigan: That starting lineup is fantastic. You have an awesome two-way point guard in Cadeau, a defensive maven in McCoy, an automatic bucket in McKenney and two skilled bigs with complementary skill sets in Thiam and Estrella. Dozens of high-major teams would love to have that starting 5 with multiple real-deal NBA prospects in the fold.
Here’s the pessimistic look at Michigan: Doesn’t this roster feel like a piece or two short? Michigan is certainly well within its rights to scour the five-for-five market (a potential reunion with Roddy Gayle has been bantered about and would be very helpful). But this team doesn’t have a real backup point guard. It doesn’t have a proven, no-doubt dude coming off the bench to carry that second unit. There are very real injury histories with Estrella and Reed. It’s currently counting on a ton of young guys to hold down the fort so that the starters don’t have to play 35 minutes apiece.
We also have a pretty good idea that the defense won’t be special again. Michigan wore teams down throughout the course of a game. Its second-half defense was the best I’ve ever seen, and the data backs that up. Opponents shot 38% from the field in the second half against Michigan. That was the best in the country. Michigan’s raw size was the main driver of that, but so was the depth. Michigan still has the personnel to be a good defense with top-10 potential, but this doesn’t profile as a special unit. Mara was a better defender than Thiam. Morez Johnson was a better defender than Estrella. McCoy will be a very good defender, but will he be quite as impactful as Yaxel Lendeborg? I don’t think that’s realistic.
You get the point.
This team, as currently constructed, is not the best in the Big Ten. That’s Michigan State or Illinois. Part of that is because Michigan was left at the altar in the weird portal recruitment of prized Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris. You add Harris to this mix, and we’re having a vastly different conversation.
That reported, Michigan is still a national championship contender until proven otherwise because this backcourt of McKenney and Cadeau is too talented to fail.
