There’s still more than a month until the 2026 WNBA season comes to a close on Sept. 24, but just over two weeks of game action remains. That’s because the league will pause from Aug. 31-Sept. 16 for the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup, which will run from Sept. 4-13 in Berlin, Germany. No team has more than 10 games remaining, and some have as few as seven. While the eight playoff teams are largely set — the eighth-place Wings have a four-and-a-half-game lead on the expansion Portland Fire for the final spot — no team has locked in a seed and there’s still a lot to sort out in the middle of the playoff picture.
As the final playoff push begins, let’s try to predict how things will shake out at the end of the season.
Current standings
Note: Teams in bold have already clinched a playoff spot
- Minnesota Lynx: 30-7
- Golden State Valkyries: 25-10
- Indiana Fever: 24-12
- Las Vegas Aces: 24-13
- Atanta Dream: 22-13
- Washington Mystics: 21-14
- New York Liberty: 22-15
- Dallas Wings: 20-16
Playoff seeding predictions
Here’s how I think the standings will shake out at the end of the season:
- Minnesota Lynx
- Golden State Valkyries
- Las Vegas Aces
- Indiana Fever
- Atlanta Dream
- Washington Mystics
- New York Liberty
- Dallas Wings
Lynx cruising to No. 1 seed
The Lynx won a franchise-record 34 games last season to earn the No. 1 seed, then lost six rotation players in the offseason, played without Napheesa Collier until late July this summer and are going to be the No. 1 seed again. Their last two wins, over the Aces on Saturday and over the Valkyries on Wednesday, have all but locked up the top spot and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
They now have a four-game lead over the Valkyries and own the tiebreaker (more on tiebreakers below) between the teams, making the gap essentially five games. No other team is within five and a half games. Even though the Lynx have the hardest remaining schedule, no one is going to catch them at this point.
Valkyries in the driver’s seat for No. 2 seed
The Valkyries’ six-game winning streak came to an end Wednesday in a defeat to the Lynx that effectively ended their hopes of catching Minnesota. Still, they remain in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed, which would guarantee them home-court advantage up until the Finals.
Golden State is one and a half games up on the third-place Fever, who lead the rest of the pack, and thanks to the tiebreaker, that is effectively a two-and-a-half-game advantage for the Valkyries. The Aces, who are two games back and own the tiebreaker with the Valkyries, are the only other team within three games.
Fever leading a crowded middle of the pack
Two and a half games separate the third-place Fever from the seventh-place Liberty, and if there’s playoff seeding drama down the stretch, it’s going to come from this group.
After a frustrating start, the Fever have won five games in a row and 12 of their last 15 to surge into third place, and are one victory away from a single-season record. They are one and a half games back of the Valkyries for second, but have lost that tiebreaker, so it’s unlikely they’ll move up. Rather, their focus will be on holding off the Aces and Dream to ensure they earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They are half a game ahead of the Aces and one and a half games up on the Dream. They’ll also have to keep an eye on the Mystics and Liberty, with key games coming up against both clubs down the stretch.
The Aces are just 6-5 since the All-Star break and have lost four of their last six games to drop into fourth place. While it seemed they would challenge the Lynx for the No. 1 seed down the stretch, that hope is gone. They still have a chance at No. 2, however. While they’re two games back of the Valkyries, they own the tiebreaker there and have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. With only lottery teams remaining, the Aces could realistically run the table, which also puts No. 3 in play — the Fever own the tiebreaker there but are only half a game up — and makes it unlikely they’ll fall below No. 4.
Earlier this week, the Dream secured a huge road win over the Aces — just their second over a playoff team since June — and remain in the mix for a top-three seed. They’re one and a half games back of the Fever (tiebreaker TBD) and one game back of the Aces (tiebreaker lost). They have an easy schedule down the stretch and have beaten up on lottery teams all season long, but cannot get too comfortable when they’re just one game up on both the Mystics and Liberty, and end their campaign with two games in New York. The Dream have lost the tiebreaker to Washington and the tiebreaker with New York is TBD. Atlanta might have the most possible outcomes.
No one expected the Mystics to be in the playoffs this season, let alone battling for a top-four seed. It’s unlikely they’re going to catch the Fever or Aces, who are two and a half games and two games up, respectively, but the fact that it’s a possibility is remarkable for the youngest team in the league. Especially considering the Mystics were .500 a month ago. Catching the Dream for fifth is more realistic since they’re one game back and own the tiebreaker, but they still have to watch out for the Liberty. New York is just percentage points back and owns that tiebreaker.
The Liberty were the preseason title favorites, but they have once again been beset by injuries and are stuck in seventh place. That should be their floor given the Wings’ issues, but can they climb the standings? It’s possible. They’re percentage points behind the Mystics, only one game back of the fifth-place Dream and two back of the fourth-place Aces. And they own the tiebreaker with Washington and Las Vegas, and can still take the tiebreaker with Atlanta (they close the season with back-to-back home games against the Dream). It’s just too hard to trust this team right now, however, and they have a much harder schedule than the three teams in front of them.
Wings likely stuck in eighth
Down at the bottom of the playoff picture are the Wings, who revealed Wednesday that No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd will undergo knee surgery and miss the remainder of the season. This will be the fourth time that Fudd has gone under the knife on her right knee since 2019.
Despite Fudd’s absence and a 2-7 mark since the All-Star break, the Wings are almost certainly still going to make the playoffs. They have a four-and-a-half-game lead for the final spot over the ninth-place Portland Fire, and even though there’s one game remaining between the clubs that will determine their season series, it’s hard to see the Fire catching them. Especially when the Fire have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule and the Wings have the second-easiest.
Head-to-head tiebreakers
In the event that two teams have the same record at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. If necessary, the second tiebreaker is winning percentage against teams with a .500 or better record, the third tiebreaker is point differential in head-to-head games and the fourth tiebreaker is point differential against all opponents.
Here is the current tiebreaker picture.
Lynx
- Tiebreaker over: Valkyries
Valkyries
- Tiebreaker over: Fever, Dream, Mystics, Liberty, Wings
- Tiebreaker lost: Lynx, Aces
Fever
- Tiebreaker over: Aces
- Tiebreaker lost: Valkyries
- Tiebreaker TBD: Fever, Mystics, Liberty, Wings
Aces
- Tiebreaker over: Valkyries, Dream, Mystics
- Tiebreaker lost: Fever, Liberty, Wings
Dream
- Tiebreaker over: Wings
- Tiebreaker lost: Valkyries, Aces, Mystics
- Tiebreaker TBD: Fever, Liberty
Mystics
- Tiebreaker over: Dream, Wings
- Tiebreaker lost: Valkyries, Aces, Liberty
- Tiebreaker TBD: Fever
Liberty
- Tiebreaker over: Aces, Mystics
- Tiebreaker lost: Valkyries, Wings
- Tiebreaker TBD: Fever, Dream
Wings
- Tiebreaker over: Aces, Liberty
- Tiebreaker lost: Valkyries, Dream, Mystics
- Tiebreaker TBD: Fever
In the event that three or more teams have the same record, which is possible given how congested the standings are, things get more complicated. Here’s what the league has to say:
“If more than two teams tied, then as many teams will be eliminated at each step. As soon as one or more teams are eliminated at any step, the process must begin again from step one.”
Remaining strength of schedule
We’ll go easiest to hardest here. This is based strictly on current opponent winning percentage.e
- Aces: 0.273
- Wings: 0.350
- Valkyries: 0.433
- Mystics: 0.449
- Dream: 0.463
- Fever: 0.544
- Liberty: 0.590
- Lynx: 0.593
