I have good news and bad news about the relief pitcher position.
The good news is that the top of it is stacked. I count six closers as elite, and that number was seven before Josh Hader got hurt. Devin Williams could easily rejoin their ranks as well.
So let’s say 6-8 when it’s normally more like 3-4, which means that if you’re the sort who likes to invest heavily at closer, you have a higher margin for error. That’s the good news.
The bad news is if you’re not. For as crystallized as the top of the closer pool is, the bottom is as murky as ever, and not simply because of managerial indecision. We’ve grown accustomed to managers eschewing traditional bullpen roles, at least by way of lip service, forcing us to wait for them to reveal their choices through their actions. My objection, though, isn’t just a lack of clarity but a lack of priority. The number of teams that simply don’t care about having a quality late-inning reliever is startling.
- Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
- Position Tiers (v. 2.0): C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
By my count, it’s seven teams: the Rangers, Angels, Twins, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Rockies. Quick, name a reliever for any of them. Unless you’ve already brushed up at the position, you can’t. Some traded away their closer at the deadline last year or lost him to a long-term injury, both of which are excusable in the moment, but they all just decided to stand pat this offseason. Sure, the Rangers, Angels, Twins, and Diamondbacks each took on a reclamation project with a closing background (Alexis Diaz, Kirby Yates, Taylor Rogers, and Paul Sewald, respectively), but are they supposed to inspire confidence in Fantasy? Are they supposed to inspire confidence in real life?
They haven’t even won the job yet, and they may not be good enough to. The only reason they’re even in the discussion is because no one else in those bullpens is more deserving. That’s what’s so startling about it. Nearly a quarter of the teams in the league have decided not just to eschew traditional bullpen roles but to eschew good relievers entirely. Even if you knew who the front-runner for saves was on those seven teams, would you really want him?
The inevitable consequence is that the pool of bankable saves sources — and I’m defining “bankable” in the most generous way here — is shallower than ever. Conventional wisdom says there are only 30 save sources to go around, but really, it’s more like 20 (because while the Rays and Cardinals at least have good relievers, they don’t have much clarity). What it means for Draft Day is that you have to be on high alert, not necessarily paying the premium for one of the elites, but being prepared to double up soon afterward. Otherwise, you may be forced to speculate on some truly unsavory options.
Or you could always convert your league to saves-plus-holds, but then there wouldn’t be much need for a strategies article, would there?
So I’ve mentioned the elite closers run 6-8 deep this year, yet I’ve listed 10 relievers here. Two that I wasn’t including in that count were David Bednar and Josh Hader. Bednar certainly performed like an elite closer last year (you can see the numbers for yourself), but his unsteady track record has me hesitant to declare him such henceforth. Meanwhile, Hader is nursing a biceps injury and likely won’t be ready for opening day. Still, the upside is there, and I’d say these two are more likely to meet it than not, which is why I’m more or less regarding these 10 as being on equal footing.
Sure, Mason Miller and Edwin Diaz present advantages not shared by Raisel Iglesias, for instance, but the opportunity cost for where you’d have to take them is a stud hitter or ace pitcher, both of which are more impactful than a closer as long as you trust in your abilities to navigate the saves scarcity.
But the scarcity is real, which is why I make every reasonable effort to grab one of these guys in any league that uses standard 5×5 scoring. It’s more like a must in deeper leagues, such as 15-team Rotisserie, with saves being spread much thinner and picks being further apart. You leave yourself with too little margin for error if you don’t prioritize closer on some level. I don’t mind if it’s Iglesias, who has a lengthy track record of success and was dominant over his final 27 appearances last year with a 0.34 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. I think he’s perceived as riskier with the Braves’ signing of Robert Suarez, but closing is an inherently risky profession. The amount of turnover is enormous, and it’s often the guys you’d least expect. I’d rather take on some perceived risk at a discount (Aroldis Chapman and Devin Williams also meet this criteria) than presume obliviously that the higher-priced option is risk-free.
These relievers are neither as good nor as secure in their roles as those in the previous group, but they’ve been officially anointed closers (or were at least strongly implied to be) and, well … they may be good enough. They’re also the last relievers who you can count on for saves, at least from the start, so you want to feel pretty secure in the category before this group is depleted. It may mean drafting two because you missed out on taking the studs, in which case you may need to devote back-to-back picks to them to ensure you don’t get left out of a run. Then again, Seranthony Dominguez is still lagging way behind, even with the White Sox recently anointing him closer. He makes for a more attainable second closer or perhaps even a third, a few picks down the road. I would say he’s the reliever I’ll draft most often, given both his low price and the increased swing-and-miss ability he showed with the introduction of a splitter last year.
What about the pricier options? Carlos Estevez and Ryan Helsley have the clearest bust potential to me, which isn’t to say I wouldn’t take them if they were among the last remaining few here, but they so rarely are. The duo I’m gravitating toward most, leaving Dominguez aside, is Emilio Pagan and Daniel Palencia, who are often draftable with back-to-back picks. While the former is a tough fit in Cincinnati with his fly-ball approach, and the latter is largely unproven, both excelled last year, have pretty good bat-missing ability, and are, as of now, unchallenged for the role while playing on teams good enough to advance to the playoffs. I’d feel OK about my saves outlook if they were the only two closers I drafted.
But really, the “who?” is less important to me than the “how many?” You want to have two closers in your possession by the time this point in the draft is reached. If you have them, job well done.
This tiny grip of three bridges the considerable gap between the haves and have-nots at the position. In theory, they make for good closers, but we don’t even know yet if they have the job. Trevor Megill, who was the Brewers closers until an injury in late August, would easily be in the previous group otherwise, but Abner Uribe, who filled in down the stretch, actually had the better numbers between the two. Griffin Jax — who particularly shined in 2024 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9 — would seem to have the leg up in the Rays bullpen with the injury (shoulder impingement) to Edwin Uceta, but we don’t know for sure that Uceta will begin the year on the IL. And whether he does or doesn’t, left-hander Garrett Cleavinger could also factor for a team that’s hinted it would prefer to use more of a committee approach this year.
Ryan Walker doesn’t have much competition in San Francisco, but is coming off a rough season, and while he says he’s found a mechanical flaw … I just don’t know. The potential rewards for these three could be big, potentially even enough to join them with the studs, but you simply can’t rely on them the way you could all the other closers we’ve discussed so far. They’re break-in-case-of-emergency options for me.
Here’s where you’ll find all the miserable choices for those seven teams I mentioned earlier: the Rangers, Angels, Twins, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Rockies. Of the many uninspiring options, my favorites would be Alexis Diaz and Kirby Yates just because their teams have indicated some sort of game plan for them, but they’re Hail Marys for sure.
The more interesting choices here are the next-in-line types who would obviously be great for Fantasy if they were to inherit the role. Bryan Abreu has been one of the most dominant relievers for several years now, but he’s behind Josh Hader in the pecking order. Scooping him up in deeper leagues or even handcuffing him to Hader would make sense, though, just in case Hader’s biceps injury turns into a longer-term issue. I’ve already mentioned how Abner Uribe is breathing down Trevor Megill’s neck (frankly, I think he should be the highest drafted of this group), and Robert Suarez, who led the NL in saves last year, would go back to being just as valuable as he was with the Padres should any trouble befall Raisel Iglesias.
Clearly, those three offer enticing upside, but if I’ve already made a reasonable investment in saves and don’t need to rely on some miracle to stay afloat in the category, the cost/benefit ratio doesn’t work for me. I’d more likely grab one of the Cardinals duo to help supplement saves. Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero would both be respectable closers on their own, but they’re likely to remain a closing tandem for manager Oliver Marmol, continually robbing each other of save chances.
^foreign stats
For the uninitiated, SPARP stands for “starting pitcher as relief pitcher,” meaning a starting pitcher who you can slot into your relief spot. They mostly matter in points leagues, where all statistical contributions go into the same bucket, and a good SPARP can outperform a good closer just by virtue of innings accumulation. This is part of the reason why the closer crop is never fully depleted in a standard-sized Head-to-Head points league. Not only is the format shallower, but there’s also this extra subcategory of reliever available.
This year’s crop isn’t the most exciting, though. Ryne Nelson stands out more for his floor than his ceiling. He’ll accumulate innings while maintaining pretty good ratios, but nothing more. There’s upside to be found here, but it doesn’t line up neatly with opportunity (looking at you, Payton Tolle). Joey Cantillo and Braxton Ashcraft showed enough as rookies that they’re worth a late-round flier in Head-to-Head points leagues, but it’s unclear if they’ll accumulate enough innings to matter in that format. The wild card here is Cody Ponce, who was just MVP of the Korean league (you can see the numbers he put up there) and is expected to hold down a rotation spot for the AL champion Blue Jays. How he’ll transition back to MLB is anyone’s guess (you may recall Erick Fedde was also KBO MVP before returning), so Ponce, like Cantillo and Ashcraft, is no more than a late-round flier.
